Heading into his third NFL season, Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris is set up for possibly his best season yet.
After experiencing a difficult start to his 2022 campaign, Harris rebounded in a big way down the stretch, running with authority downhill while also flashing in the passing game as a dual-threat feature back should, finishing the season with 1,034 rushing yards and 229 receiving yards and 10 total TDs. The 1,263 scrimmage yards was a far cry from the 1,667 he posted as a rookie, but Harris struggled with injuries during 2022 and had stark decline in total touches (381 in 2021 to 313 in 2022).
Harris’ rookie season ranks ninth all-time in Steelers’ single-season total scrimmage yards, according to Statmuse. Le’Veon Bell tops the list with 2,215 scrimmage yards back in 2014 and owns the third and fourth spots in the rankings as well. Barry Foster ranks second with 2,034 scrimmage yards back in 1992 while Antonio Brown claims the fifth spot with 1,862 yards from scrimmage in 2015.
One would imagine that Harris has a good shot to crack 1,700 yards from scrimmage if he plays a full 17 games in 2023, but does he have a shot of cracking the top five in Steelers’ single-season history? That may be a tall task for Harris, who ceded 105 total touches and 593 scrimmage yards to Jaylen Warren last season after operating as Pittsburgh’s bell cow in 2021.
Harris also saw his receptions notably drop from 74 as a rookie to 41 last season, also going from 467 receiving yards down to 229. Pittsburgh has a plethora of weapons in the passing game, and if Harris is getting subbed out for Warren on third downs, his impact as a pass catcher may fail to reach 2021 heights.
Still, the offense appears to be centered around the running game with Harris being the focal point of the rushing attack. Pittsburgh has invested a lot into its offensive line the last two offseasons, signing OG Isaac Seumalo and drafting OT Broderick Jones this offseason to join C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, and RT Chukwuma Okorafor. This group should be able to better control the line of scrimmage in the running game, opening more holes into the second level for Harris to exploit like he did at the end of 2022. Harris also should see his usage as receiver continue to make an impact as he is a skilled pass catcher who has shown he can make impressive catches in crucial moments of the game.
For Harris to crack the top five in Steelers’ total scrimmage yards in a season, he needs to surpass Brown’s mark of 1,862 yards. Should Harris average 80 rushing yards per game as well as log 60 receptions with an average YPR of 6.0, his total yardage would come out to 1,720 scrimmage yards, over 140 yards short of the fifth spot in the rankings.
Realistically, Harris likely needs to average over 85 rushing yards per game and be closer to the 65-reception mark at a 6.5 YPR to surpass Brown’s mark with 1,867.5 yards from scrimmage. While there is plenty of target competition in Pittsburgh’s offense, Harris can reach 60 receptions should the opportunity be there for him to be in on passing downs. As for rushing yards, only Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb averaged more than 85 rushing yards per game last season, meaning that Harris would have to rank near the top of the league rushers to get the job done.
Given the factors in play both favoring Harris as well as going against him, it would be reasonable to say that having a top-five season all-time in team history for single-season scrimmage yards is plausible but not probable. Harris would have to regain his rookie form as a pass catcher, benefitting on a bunch of dump off passes while running more efficiently on a per game basis that he has the last two seasons, not having Warren siphon too many carries from him in order to rank near the top of the league in rushing.
Ultimately, I believe that Najee Harris is in store for a resurgent 2023 season. I do think that he has a good shot of surpassing his rookie scrimmage yardage totals this coming season, but cracking the top five in Steelers history seems unlikely as we sit here today.
