The Pittsburgh Steelers had a busy free agency, including an overhaul at the linebacker position. After examining the position in 2022, with articles focused on Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts’ run defense, coverage, and pass rushing, today I will look at the position in the 2021 season. This also includes Keanu Neal, who was also added by Pittsburgh in free agency. He played primarily at linebacker for Dallas in 2021, then at safety for Tampa Bay last season, which I examined recently (run defense, coverage, pass rushing).
Considering Neal had the most snaps in the box in each of his seven years in the NFL, the findings from this study should be interesting compared to the safety studies, which obviously includes players who align away from the formation primarily (i.e. Minkah Fitzpatrick). The goal is to see how this group fared in 2021, including Pittsburgh’s 2021 linebackers, and also compare this to last season as we anticipate what the changes will bring for the Steelers in 2023.
Let’s get right to it, starting with run defense snaps and average tackle depth to get a gauge of the quantity of plays and yardage comparatively.
Of the five players in our sights today, Roberts was the only one above the mean in both data points. In 2021, he had 321 run snaps, which ranked 36th out of 79 qualifying linebackers (minimum of 150 run snaps), along with an encouraging 3.1 average depth of tackle that tied for 15th. He was even stronger in the latter last season, with a 2.7 average tackle depth. That tied for ninth best, highlighting his downhill ability against the run that will hopefully carry over to Pittsburgh. Among the new Steelers, Holcomb had the highest 374 run snaps (19th), but below the mean and third in our sights with a 4.4 average tackle depth (T-61st). In comparison to his shortened 2022 season (seven games) due to injury, Holcomb had the sixth-least run snaps, but slightly improved his average tackle depth, landing at the NFL average. Here’s to hoping that positive trend holds true with the Black and Gold. Neal was the only focused player below the mean in both, with 221 run snaps (60th) and the lowest 4.8 average tackle depth which tied for 67th league-wide in 14 games played. He had similar run snaps in 2022 (239) and a 5.0 average tackle depth. While it’s a slightly lower number, Neal encouragingly ranked 12th among safeties last season, aligning more to the role that’s expected for him in Pittsburgh.
Now for the 2021 Steelers linebackers, starting with Joe Schobert. He led the group of five players with 418 run snaps (ninth most league-wide) but was next to last in average depth of tackle (4.5), which tied for 63rd in the NFL. Devin Bush was third through Steelers lenses with 351 run snaps (27th in NFL) and slightly below league average with a 3.9 average tackle depth (T-40th). That was second best among the highlighted players. So, less than desirable yardage allowed on run tackles among the group, with the exception being Roberts.
Now let’s look at types of tackles, solo versus assisted, against the run:
Holcomb led the group in both data points in 2021, with 52 solo run tackles and 30 assists, which tied for tenth and sixth respectively. This is encouraging quantity context to his lower results in average tackle depth, giving hope for optimism for a healthy 2023 season when he can provide a similar solid tackling presence in the run game. For comparative context, Myles Jack was the leader for Pittsburgh last season with 41 solo run tackles (T-31st) along with 23 assists, which tied for 19th. In 2021, Schobert had the second-most solo run tackles of the focused players (45). That ranked 21st in the NFL, along with 22 assists (T-19th) and third in our sights today but had a low-ranked average tackle depth. Roberts landed above him with 26 assists (T-12th league-wide) but was just below the NFL mean with 35 solo run tackles, which was third in our sights and tied for 39th in the NFL. This adds important context to Roberts’ quality average depth of tackle, with more coming on the assisted variety. Comparing this to his 2022 season, Roberts had 39 solo (35th) and 19 assists (T-30th), an encouraging increase compared to his peers in bringing down the ball-carrier solo and limiting yardage overall against the run.
Then we see a big drop off, with Neal landing next in the results at 28 solo tackles (T-53rd) and 11 assists (T-61st). His totals were eerily similar last season, with 27 solo tackles and 12 assists. That tied for 37th and 26th among safeties, with important context being his low number of opportunities compared to his peers each season. A stark difference to this point was Bush’s 2021 tackles in run defense, with each the worst among the focused group, with 27 solo (T-56th) and seven assists, which tied for fifth least. Considering this was on 100+ snaps more than Neal, we get a greater sense of the quality when factoring in the quantity, and the lack of presence Bush had in plenty of opportunities as a tackler in the run game in 2021.
Next, I wanted to see how the players fared in a “hit or miss” type view with stop percentage, which uses the successful play rates formula (less than 40% on first down, 50% or less on second down and third- or fourth-down plays kept from a first down or touchdown) and missed tackle percentage:
The only player in our sights who was an above the mean player in both was Holcomb, topping all with an 8.1% stop percentage, which ranked 25th in the NFL, along with an 8.9% missed tackle rate (33rd), which was second among the focused players. He was also above league average last season with an even better 7.3% missed tackle percentage (26th), which he can hopefully provide for Pittsburgh, but it came on a lower 6.2% stop rate that ranked 60th, so less crucial situations overall.
Bush was the only other focused player with an above the mean result, which came on the top 8.1% missed tackle rate of the group (26th league-wide), though it’s important to recall his low tackle totals. The other side of the coin was his lowest 4.7% stop percentage of the group, which tied for 73rd in the NFL and highlights more issues from the 2021 Steelers’ run defense. Schobert also fit this bill with below average marks in each data point, with a 15.2% missed tackle rate (T-70th) and 5.7% stop percentage (T-60th), emphasizing major issues against the run that both highlights and justifies some reasons for his short stint in Pittsburgh.
Unfortunately, two new additions for 2023 had less than desired results, particularly in missed tackles. Neal had a 15.2% missed tackle rate, tying with Schobert at 70th, and an extremely discouraging element to Roberts’ 2021 season in run defense was a whopping 20.8% missed tackle percentage, the worst of the qualifying NFL linebackers. The two were also below the mean in stop rate but closer to league average, with Neal’s 7% tying for 39th, while Roberts came in at 6.5% (51st). Roberts did improve in both substantially last season, with a 21st rank in stop percentage and a 7.9% missed tackle rate (29th). Hopefully he can continue this positive trend from last season, considering the bleak 2021 numbers. Neal still had issues last season in missed tackles, ironically landing at the same percentage (15.2%), which tied for 46th among safeties. The great news from 2022 was Neal’s stop rate of 6%, which ranked fourth among safeties, but two recent seasons of missed tackle issues temper optimism in my opinion.
To close, let’s look at a more total view of how the players fared in the run game with PFF run defense grades along with points above average per play (a player’s EPA responsibility on run plays using the total points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play, and accounts for defenders in the box, blown blocks forced, broken tackles, and turnovers) from Sports Info Solutions (SIS):
Here we see the results from 2021 in run defense left much to be desired. A positive was Holcomb landing above the mean in both data points, with a 61.8 run defense grade (29th) and his points above average tying for 35th. Roberts had the only other above the mean result (slightly), with a 55.6 run defense grade (34th), but his points above average tied for 58th. Neal was one of three focused players to land below the mean in both, with a points above average result that tied for 69th while his 28.1 PFF run defense grade was second-worst among qualifying linebackers.
The only player ranked worse was on the 2021 Steelers roster, which was Bush’s 27.2 PFF run defense grade, and SIS had a similar view with his points above average tying for second lowest. He did make some strides last year but was still below the mean in both (59th & 61st), which was not enough for Pittsburgh to retain his services. Schobert was also below average in both, with a 48.3 run defense grade (59th) and his points above average tying for 58th (including Roberts). That added context to why the Steelers moved on, as well as Schobert playing limited snaps with the Titans last year and remaining unsigned as a free agent.
Overall, Holcomb was above average in assists (T-sixth) and solo run tackles (T-10th), snaps (19th), stop percentage (25th), PFF run defense grade (29th), missed tackle rate (33rd), and points above average (35th). His only below average 2021 result came in average depth of tackle (T-61st). Last season, Holcomb substantially improved in points above average (T-second), and encouragingly trended positively in missed tackle rate (26th), 69.4 PFF run defense grade (29th), along with an average depth of tackle that slightly improved but landed low in opportunity metrics (run snaps and tackles) due to injury and regressed stop rate. Here’s to hoping he has a healthy 2023, first and foremost, and is able to provide the presence he did in 2021, which included quantity and quality overall, and ideally positive trends from last year as well.
Roberts’ 2021 season was above average in assists (T-12th), average depth of tackle (T-15th), run snaps (36th), and a slightly above average run defense grade (34th). It was below the NFL mean in solo run tackles (39th), stop rate (51st), points above average (58th), and a discouragingly low missed tackle rate that bottomed the ranks. He did improve vastly in the latter last season (29th), along with landing above average in every data point in 2022. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, considering his reputation as a downhill player, and would be a welcomed sight in the Black and Gold. Studying Neal’s 2021 season at linebacker left much to be desired overall, with the former first-round pick landing at the league mean in stop rate, but below average in every other aspect. Last season among safeties he fared better in terms of ranks, with improved marks in most aspects, but run defense grade and particularly another year with a low missed tackle rate are concerning for the upcoming season if he indeed earns a role at safety or in sub-packages.
Pittsburgh certainly cleaned house at the linebacker position, and hopefully the 2023 group fares well for the black and gold this season. One thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see how it all pans out.
What are your thoughts on the data and the 2023 outlook at the position? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
