The Pittsburgh Steelers had a busy free agency, including the signing of cornerback Chandon Sullivan. Today, I wanted to provide some data context from his time with the Vikings last year, along with Patrick Peterson, who was also signed from Minnesota this offseason, and the 2022 Steelers cornerbacks with at least 125 run snaps. This will give a gauge of the loss/gains from a stats perspective, similar to the coverage study I did recently.
Let’s start with run snaps and average depth of tackle for quantity of plays and yardage comparatively:
Of the 2023 Steelers cornerbacks, Sullivan was the only one to land above the mean in both data points, with 298 run snaps, which ranked 44th out of 111 qualifying cornerbacks, and a 4.6 average tackle depth that tied for a stronger 24th in the NFL last season. Hopefully this is something he can bring with him to the black and gold, and the position room can fare well at this year. Peterson had the most opportunities with 404 run snaps. which ranked 13th, an encouraging level of availability that he can hopefully continue to provide for Pittsburgh in 2023. His average depth of tackle was far less desirable though at 8.7, which ranked third out of the players in our sites and T-88th overall.
These two will be interesting to monitor, especially in terms of utilization, with the current depth chart pointing towards a high possibility of them playing in the slot, which Peterson hasn’t done much in his career (more on this to come). Cornerback Levi Wallace is the only qualifying corner who is returning for Pittsburgh this season and was the only player below average in both aspects. He had 253 run snaps (58th) and a 9.2 average depth of run tackle that ranked 94th overall.
Comparing this to the departed 2022 Steelers, we see Pittsburgh has lost value in these terms, starting with Cameron Sutton, who is now with the Detroit Lions. He ranked 24th in run snaps (352) and had a 4.1 average depth of tackle for a strong 19th rank. He was the only Pittsburgh cornerback from last season who was above the mean in both data points. Another loss from the position room was the unexpected release of Arthur Maulet. He was known for a slot role on run downs largely, and though his 148 run snaps were 99th overall in opportunity, his impressive average depth of tackle of 3.6 ranked 14th.
This is one of the many questions I have regarding the position room with massive turnover from last season, wondering how the new groups opportunities and alignments shake out, and if Pittsburgh can continue to limit run gains overall with Sutton and Maulet’s strong results out the door.
For further context, here are their 2022 opportunities by alignment:
The specific numbers further illustrate my point, with scarce slot snaps remaining on the roster from last season. Sullivan’s eerily similar snap opportunities to the departed Maulet highlight him as the most experienced currently, and logically got the first opportunity in the slot when OTAs began. We also see just how seldom Peterson played there in 2022 (and his career). This unknown will be very interesting to monitor moving forward through the offseason.
Now let’s look at types of tackles, solo versus assisted tackles against the run:
Sullivan was the only player above the mean in both tackle types, with 12 solo tackles (T-32nd) along with the most assists (eight) of the focused players. That tied for ninth league-wide. This is an encouraging aspect of his play from 2022 considering fewer snap opportunities than Sutton, and his above-average tackle depth as well. Seeing the remaining four highlighted players toward the bottom left jumps out. Peterson leads the group with an above-average 14 solo tackles which tied for 26th, encouragingly above average in stopping runners on his own in tackle opportunities, compared to just one assisted run tackle. Maulet was also above the mean in these terms, with 12 solo tackles (T-32nd) along with two assists, very impressive given his much lower snap counts. Sutton had four assists, which was the league mean, and 10 solo tackles (T-49th) which landed just below average. Wallace was unfortunately below the mean in both once again, with six solo tackles (T-81st) and had three assists.
So, Sullivan and Peterson encouragingly led the group in quantity, while Maulet, Sutton, and Sullivan had stronger quality tackle depths. Hopefully Sullivan can continue to provide this value, which would be fantastic if he indeed earns the slot corner role.
Next, I wanted to see how the players fared in a “hit-or-miss’” type view with stop percentage. This uses the successful play rates formula (less than 40% on first down, 50% or less on second down, and third or fourth down plays kept from a first down or touchdown) and missed tackle percentage:
Once again, Sullivan is the only player who landed above average in both data points. He had the third-best missed tackle rate of 9.1% among the highlighted players. That ranked 26th in the NFL last season, along with a 2.4% stop rate that tied for 30th. While he didn’t top the leaderboards by any means, his positive results compared to his peers in both would definitely be valuable for the black and gold, a feat no other player in our sights was able to replicate in 2022.
An encouraging element for the 2023 Steelers was missed tackle rates from last season. Wallace was impressively one of eight cornerbacks with no missed tackles. Peterson had the second-best missed tackle rate of 6.3% of the players we’re focused on, which tied for 17th overall. Knock on wood they can provide a similar value in 2023, with encouraging stat evidence in 2022 leaving me reasonably optimistic.
The other side of the coin for these two was their stop rates though, with Peterson’s 1.3% tying for 65th, and Wallace at a lowly 0.4% (T-99th). So, while they were sure tacklers comparatively, they allowed successful plays situationally highlighted by the stop percentage formula, huge context for today and the outlook for 2023.
Maulet’s results were very volatile, providing extreme value with a 5.6 stop percentage, which was second-best in the NFL in 2022. This also came with an unhealthy missed tackle rate of 33.3% that tied for 98th (eighth-worst). This plot point illustrates how inconsistent he was in these terms compared to the rest of league. Sutton landed near the trendline (more consistent rates), with an above-the-mean 12.5% missed tackle rate that tied for 34th, and a 1.7% stop rate, which was just below average and tied for 48th. Here’s to hoping the 2023 Steelers can improve their stop percentages, providing more situationally, which is obviously extremely important, while maintaining encouraging missed tackle value.
To close, let’s look at a more total view of how the players fared in the run game with PFF run defense grades along with points above average per play (a player’s EPA responsibility on run plays using the total points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play, and accounts for defenders in the box, blown blocks forced, broken tackles, and turnovers) from Sports Info Solutions (SIS):
Here we see encouraging results in totality for Peterson, landing above the mean in both data points. He had the strongest points above average figure among the focused players, which tied for 23rd overall, and a 66.9 PFF run defense grade that ranked 40th overall. Wallace fared best in PFF run defense grade at 76.3. That ranked a higher-than-expected 16th, while his SIS points above average ranked much lower below the mean, tying for 68th. Sullivan also had an above-the-mean PFF run defense grade (67.4). That ranked third of the players in our sights and tied for 37th league-wide, but he had the lowest PAR through Steelers lenses and a low NFL rank, tying for 94th.
Comparing that to the former Steelers, Sutton was second out of the highlighted players in both data points, with a 73.6 PFF run defense grade that tied for 22nd, and a points above average result that tied for 42nd. Maulet was the only player in our sights that landed below average in both stats, with a 58.9 PFF run defense grade that ranked near the mean (60th), but much lower in points above average (101st).
Overall, the data gives us some reasons for optimism, but equal concerns exist especially with unknown factors we’ll have to wait to see unfold. The positives for Peterson were above-average results in run snap opportunities, solo run tackles, missed tackle rate, run defense grade, and points above average, but below the league mean in average tackle depth, assists, and stop percentage. Sullivan was above average in nearly every aspect of the study except for PAR, with encouragingly more consistent results than my coverage study. Of course, we’ll have to wait for the elephant question in the room to be answered: how much time will the two spend in the slot, and how will they fare in a position room filled with perceived outside corners and the vast number of slot snaps from 2022 out the door?
Sutton had consistent results overall, with above-average marks including run snaps, average depth of tackle, rare snap versatility that will surely be missed, run defense grade, and points above average. He was near league average in assists, and slightly below average in stop rate and solo tackles. This highlights his unfortunate departure in my opinion, and the important task Pittsburgh has to replace those opportunities.
Especially with all of Maulet’s slot snaps out the door as well, who had strong results in stop rate (ranking second), average depth of tackle, and solo tackles, but more below-average marks in run snap opportunities, assists, missed tackle percentage, run defense grade, and points above average. Wallace most notably didn’t miss a tackle in the run game in 2022, with his other positive result being run defense grade, but unfortunately had many more below-average marks: run snaps, average depth of tackle, solo tackles, assists, stop rate, and points above average, while also playing sparingly in the slot.
Pittsburgh certainly will look much different at the position this season, including the two cornerbacks selected in the 2023 draft, and, hopefully, the group with many new faces fare well for the black and gold this season. Can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.
What are your thoughts on the data and the 2023 outlook at the position? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
