With the Pittsburgh Steelers on a break before heading to Latrobe for training camp, we’re going to take a look at our expectations for this upcoming season and offer some over/under statistics to weigh in on. The offense wasn’t overly prolific last year, but the defense did put up some big numbers.
That can change in 2023 now that the offense is beginning to mature around second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, though, and if the Steelers can keep T.J. Watt healthy all year, that will only help everybody be more productive—perhaps especially the defensive backs. So each day we’ll project one stat line, whether for a player or a unit, and share our thoughts before asking you to weigh in on whether you think they will hit the over or the under.
It is your job to project whether or not the over or under will be hit. At the end of the series we will tally up the answers for each installment to create a collective pre-training camp snapshot of where you stand heading into the 2023 season.
Stat Line: 2,500 rushing yards for the Steelers
This one is a team statistic, and we have a handy benchmark because the Steelers rushed for a little over 2,000 yards in 2022. They hadn’t come close to that mark in a while prior to that, but their focus is running the football this year.
I tried to set a more realistic, obtainable goal here because I know most are going to expect the Steelers to do better at running the ball than they did last year, but how much better? Twenty-five percent better in terms of yardage output? That’s a lot to ask.
Well, I’m asking for 2,500 yards. The Steelers rushed for 1,314 yards over the final nine games of the year, which works out to 146 yards per game, just under what it would take over the course of a full 17-game season to hit 2,500.
So that would mean that the Steelers would not only run at the same rate that they did last year, but also improve upon what they were doing in the second half of the season. That’s not unreasonable. The offensive line should be better. The tight end blocking should be better. The running backs should be better. The offense should be less predictable.
Last year, five teams rushed for 2,500-plus yards. It’s a lot to ask for the Steelers to be able to do this. But how many times have we heard this offseason that their vision is communicated through their actions? They’ve even brought in bigger blocking wide receivers. They’re aiming for the type of season where they hit 2,500-yards.
And that could come in a variety of ways. There’s Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, of course, who might combine for 2,000 themselves. But you also have Kenny Pickett, who rushed for 237 yards himself last year. You have the gadget plays. Even Harris talked about Calvin Austin III being used out of the backfield. If he breaks one or two runs, that’s a key margin right there. It’s not easy, but I do think this is obtainable.
So what do you think? Taking these factors and others into consideration, are you taking the over or under on 2,500 rushing yards for the Steelers? Answer below and at the end of the series we’ll tally all your answers together to see where you stand before we get to training camp.
