With the Steelers’ 2023 offseason underway following a disappointing season that came up just short of reaching the playoffs, it’s time to begin reloading, through the free agency process, through the draft, and perhaps even through trade.
This is now a young team on the offensive side of the ball, though one getting older on defense, and both sides could stand to be supplemented robustly, including in the trenches—either one. Changes have been made to the coaching staff, even if not all of the desired ones, as the roster continues to renew with the weeks ticking by.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
Topic Statement: The Steelers will average 23 points per game or better in 2023.
Explanation: Fourteen teams make the playoffs under the current format. Thirteen teams finished the 2022 season averaging 23 points per game or better, 10 of which made the playoffs. The Steelers averaged 18.1 points per game last year, but they averaged 23 points or better during the Killer Bs era in every season in which Ben Roethlisberger was healthy.
Buy:
The Steelers are finally equipped to not only move the ball but to find the end zone, so yes, while they may not look like the most exciting offense on the field every week, they could be able to do enough to be in the top half of the league in scoring.
It starts with the offensive line, which should prove to be an asset near the goal line, upping the ability to score on the ground, but obviously there are going to be more than 12 passing touchdowns this year as well. Kenny Pickett is taking control of this team and doing everything he needs to this offseason to take the necessary steps to lock in with his weapons, new and old.
That includes finally getting into rhythm with Diontae Johnson, which was too often absent last year, in addition to getting to work with Allen Robinson II as a reliable slot weapon, and rookie tight end Darnell Washington.
Plus, the defense should be fully healthy and better equipped to help out. That’s not just in the form of potential defensive touchdowns, but also in providing the offense with shorter fields. The Steelers ranked 24th in the league in average starting field position last year.
Sell:
Will they be better than they were last year? Of course they will be. Will they be five points per game better than they were last year? Absolutely not. Let’s start with the math. The Steelers scored 308 points in 2022. To average 23 points per game in a 17-game season, they have to score 391.
That’s 83 more points than last year, or almost 12 more touchdowns. Even if they improve their red zone percentage, that’s turning three points into seven, which is only four points more at a time. Converting one extra field goal into a touchdown per game wouldn’t even be enough.
On top of that, they’re playing some pretty tough defenses in 2023, including the top three scoring defenses from last year, not to mention their division rivals. They should certainly get past 20 points per game, maybe even 21 or 22, but expecting 12 more touchdowns than last year is too lofty for a one-year jump.
