With the Steelers’ 2023 offseason underway following a disappointing season that came up just short of reaching the playoffs, it’s time to begin reloading, through the free agency process, through the draft, and perhaps even through trade.
This is now a young team on the offensive side of the ball, though one getting older on defense, and both sides could stand to be supplemented robustly, including in the trenches—either one. Changes have been made to the coaching staff, even if not all of the desired ones, as the roster continues to renew with the weeks ticking by.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
Topic Statement: Quarterback Kenny Pickett will have better than a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Explanation: As a rookie, Pickett only threw seven total touchdown passes but nine interceptions. All but one of his interceptions came in the earlier part of the season, however, while most of his touchdown passes came later.
Buy:
Let’s first establish that the Kenny Pickett that we’re going to see moving forward is going to look a lot closer to the one that we saw in the second half of the season last year than the first half. That’s just part of the natural maturation of a young player and the byproduct of having a full offseason preparing as a starter.
So let’s look at the second-half numbers. He threw five touchdowns in eight games. Not great at all. If you’re not averaging at least a touchdown per game, that’s rough. But he only threw one interception. That’s a 5-to-1 ratio there. You can add another interception and you’ll still have better than 2-to-1.
Now, he’s going to throw more than two interceptions on the year, granted. But he’s also going to throw more than 10 touchdowns. He should be able to double that, at least, and staying under 10 interceptions on the season shouldn’t prove difficult in an offense built on running and with a deep threat like George Pickens, who will play the ball in the air, which should minimize turnovers.
Sell:
Having a run-first offense is going to impact the amount of touchdown passes thrown. But as multiple players have talked about, the plan is also to open up the passing game farther afield. It doesn’t matter how sure-handed your targets are, the further away from the line of scrimmage you’re throwing, the more often you’re going to be intercepted.
I recently offered the stat line of 24.5 touchdowns thrown for Pickett this year, and virtually everybody took the under. The perception is obviously that he is not at a point in his career in which he’s going to be a prolific scorer with his arm. He may be in the 15-20 touchdown range.
And let’s be honest, his ball security isn’t going to look like last season’s second half. While he only threw one interception, it could have been worse if defenders had made more plays that were there to be made. If he plays out the full season and throws a standard amount of times for the average quarterback, he should have at least a dozen picks. By my count, only 16 out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts last year had better than a 2-to-1 ratio.
