2020 NFL Draft Pittsburgh Steelers’ Big Board – Version 1.0

2020 STEELERS BIG BOARD – LIKELY ROUND 2 TARGETS

This will be my first post here at Steelers Depot, so it’s probably best to introduce how the annual Pittsburgh Steelers Big Board works. The grades are organized by Highest Value (“HV#”) ***to the Steelers.*** Many of the listed players would have a higher grade on a board devoted to some other team because they would better fit that organizations scheme, needs, and/or wants than they do the ones in Pittsburgh. Start from (a) the highest potential grade for any individual player in a perfect fit, (b) discount that grade for this particular iteration of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and you should end up with (c) the grade on this Board. Yes, this system results in a certain amount of grade inflation for positions of need because we are talking about the “highest” grade, not the one where a player is expected to go; but grades are never pushed up just because of need.

An HV of 1:25 means the player would be a reach for the Steelers at any point before Pick # 25 of Round 1, but good value at any point from the end of the 1st on. Getting him at Pick #20 overall would be a minor reach; pick #15 a significant reach; etc. Again, you should expect this approach to result in grades that can range from very unfair to almost absurd when applied to the prospects at low-priority positions. Someone like a good CB could easily have a 3:01 grade on this Board due to Pittsburgh’s lack of need in 2020, even though the same player would deserve a 1:25 grade, or even higher, for a team like the Steelers of 2016. That 3:01 grade would indicate the point when the talent-based bargain outweighs the positional discount. The odds that even a fringe-1st Corner would fall to the early 3rd are vanishingly small, but that is kind of the point: they are great targets for other teams but not for Pittsburgh. The same will be true in the opposite direction as other teams discount players that we list at full retail value.

Rounds are subdivided as follows:

• 1st Round grades: 1:01, 1:05, 1:10, 1:15, 1:20, or 1:25.
• 2nd & 3rd Round grades: Early (#:01), Mid (#:12), or Late (#:24).
• 4th to 7th Round grades: Early (#:01) or Late (#:16).

With the Steelers lacking a 1st Round pick, I have also decided to use an “Ain’t Gonna Happen” list for the prospects with no semi-realistic chance of falling to the mid-2nd. Players with the same HV# are organized alphabetically. Boards organized by HV, like the one in this post, are sorted within each grade by position: Defense, then Offense, inside to out.

Defense Is Heavily Discounted In Round 2

I believe Defense is basically off the table for Pittsburgh’s Round 2 pick due to several considerations. First, the front office (“FO”) absolutely hates to load up too many picks in a row on one side of the ball. The Steelers have pre-spent their Round 1 and Round 3 picks for 2020 on Minkah Fitzpatrick and Devin Bush. I love those picks! But they do make it hard to imagine a third defensive pick in Round 2 as well. The offensive unit would have a well justified fit.

Second, the team has far less need at any defensive position than it does on the offensive side of the ball. The only serious “want” might – might! – be at Edge Rusher, and that would only happen if Bud Dupree leaves. When push comes to shove we can pretty well write that possibility off. It will only happen if the team feels way more comfortable with Ola Adeniyi and Tuzar Skipper than the fans do.

Remember when Steeler Nation went nuts over letting Joey Porter depart to Miami? The FO knew that James Harrison was ready to step in. If the same isn’t true for Ola and Tuzar, the FO can and will pull out every financial stop to pay for Dupree’s franchise tag or to negotiate a long term deal. See the Ain’t Gonna Happen list for a long list of the names we don’t need to worry about beyond their ability to push a more favored position down the draft.

Hargrave’s expected departure makes Nose Tackle a bigger concern but let’s face facts. The Gravedigger is one of my favorite draft steals of the past decade, but even his level of talent could only earn around 40% of the defensive snaps at this position – and it only went up toward 60% when Tuitt got hurt. Pittsburgh won’t spend its Round 2 pick on such a limited number of potential snaps. Maybe at 3:comp and more likely in Round 4, but not in Round 2. The Board therefore puts the Round 1 guys on the Ain’t List, applies something like a 30-spot discount for the Round 2 talents, and a half-round discount for those who might otherwise be targeted in Round 3. There is no discount for players from the late-3rd on.

The Steelers may also have wants at backup Safety and ILB, but backups are even more of a Day 3 target than NT’s. This may adjust as we learn more about the status of Sean Davis, Tyler Matakevich, and Ulysees Gilbert. Similar discounts have been applied and maybe a little steeper. It’s hard to see the team drafting a Corner at all.

The Offensive Needs Are Well Balanced

Fans can argue endlessly about the relative value of anything other than a potential franchise quarterback. Offensive line, with Ramon Foster likely to be a cap casualty? Running Back, since James Conner’s injury record suggests that he will be unavailable for at least half of the offensive snaps? Tight End, which is headed by the equally fragile Vance McDonald? Wide Receiver, since that is the strongest class in the draft and thus the most likely one where a Round 1 talent might fall to the mid-second?

The fact that we can go around that loop so endlessly proves only one thing: there are no distinctions in relative need sufficient to discount any offensive position in favor of the others. This forces one, unavoidable conclusion: the FO will spend the 2:18 pick on its highest rated offensive player. Period.

The most unpredictable factor is the Quarterback situation. The Steelers appear to be happier with Mason Rudolph’s growth curve than the fans were with his 2019 production, so this isn’t an emergency, but it would do the team nothing but good to create competition for the backup role. This class offers five talents that could easily go in Round 1.

• Joe Burrow is a lock for #1 overall. See the Ain’t Gonna Happen list.
• Tua Tagovailoa would be on that list with him but for a season ending hip surgery. Question: What will happen if the doctors say he won’t recover fast enough to play in 2020? Answer: he will fall out of the 1st, and quite possibly to the middle of Round 2. Question: Would Pittsburgh leap for the podium like a lion on a limping gazelle if Tua’s available from 2021 onward? Answer: They might, rabbit; they might. He’s listed at 2:01on those assumptions.
• Jacob Eason, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love are classic Round 1 reaches at the QB position. They all have unquestionable Round 1 physical talent and tools. They also have the unquestioned ability to pull a Paxton Lynch and bust out completely. They are all listed at 2:12 with the full expectation that we won’t face so painful a choice.
• The #6 Quarterback of the 2020 draft is Jalen Hurts. He is on the Board at 2:24; i.e., a “minor reach” at 2:18. I have opinions about this prospect but have done my best to keep them out of that grade. Let the battle begin.

Offensive Linemen have full retail grades. Feiler’s ability to move inside, and the depth behind him at Tackle in Okorafor and Banner, means the team can focus on BPA without particular regard to position. Note that the two top Centers all have the ability to be starting Guards while Pouncey finishes his career. Pure Centers earn a minor discount.

RB’s have full retail grades for the elite talents, but are severely beyond that rank. The team could use a true 1.b costar for James Conner, but will have zero interest in depth that would only compete with the likes of Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels, and Kerrith Whyte.

The Steelers already have three good receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington. They could use (a) that elusive top-20 talent, (b) a speedy take-the-top-off role player, or (c) a titan-sized red zone weapon, but only to move the overall unit’s rank from ‘excellent’ to ‘next level Madden fantasy.’ That earns a discount for all WR’s, which can be kind of significant for players who don’t fit one of those specified roles. The following table nevertheless includes a ton of WR’s. Why? Because 2020 offers an all but legendary array of receiving prospects. The players listed below would be ranked even higher without the discounts.

Alas, but the exact opposite is true of the TE class. Only one of this year’s Tight Ends has earned a Round 2 grade, and that is at 2:24. Most are expected to go well after the Steelers pick at 2:18. The scary part is this: there aren’t a lot of them with Round 3 grades either, they will be in high demand, and we will be luck if one falls to 3:comp. This. Class. Sucks. Prepare for disappointment, and take that into account when considering your free agency and salary cap projections.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS TARGETS AT PICK 2:18 OF THE 2020 NFL DRAFT

THE “AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN” LIST (26 players so far)