In the first round of the NFL draft, teams are not only looking for high-end, impact players to add to their roster, they’re also looking for long-term building blocks.
Of course, the draft is an inexact science. Teams will be successful picking some players, failing in other instances. That will again be the case on Thursday night in Detroit where the 2024 NFL Draft is being held.
While it is an inexact science, teams tend to have more success drafting certain positions more than others. According to ESPN’s Paul “Hembo” Hembekides, who did research on “hits” and “misses” in the first round of the NFL draft from 2000-2019, the center position has the highest hit rate, while offensive tackle and guard are second and third.
Wide receiver, on the other hand, has the lowest hit rate, based on his research.
To be classified as a “hit” or a “miss” in Hembekides’ research, a player must sign a second contract with the team that drafted him to be a hit. Failing to sign a second contract and moving on to a new team — or be out of the league entirely — classifies as a miss.
Based on Hembekides’ research, 12 centers have been selected in the first round of the NFL draft from 2000-2019. Just one center was a miss, while 11 were counted as hits. That number includes former Pittsburgh Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey, the No. 18 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Pouncey, of course, spent 10 seasons with the Steelers from 2010-20, earning five All-Pro accolades and nine trips to the Pro Bowl while starting 134 games.
Entering the 2024 NFL Draft, the Steelers have a glaring need at the center position, which puts them in a spot to potentially select one of the likes of Duke’s Graham Barton, Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson or West Virginia’s Zach Frazier at No. 20 overall. Though the hit rate is historically good for the center position in the first round based on Hembekides’ research, it’s also important to note that in the following four drafts outside of what his research encompasses, only two centers have been selected in the first round: New Orleans’ Cesar Ruiz in 2020 and Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum in 2022.
The only “miss” during that span of 2000-2019 at the center position in the first round was Cincinnati’s Billy Price, who was selected 21st overall by the Bengals in the 2018 NFL Draft and lasted just three seasons.
Outside of center having the highest “hit” rate, offensive tackle is right up there as well with a 59% hit rate based on Hembekides’ research. From 2000-2019, 64 tackles have been drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Thirty-eight were categorized as “hits” while 26 were misses.
That’s a bit larger of a sample size and certainly far more understandable compared to the near perfect rating from the center position.
Like center, the Steelers also find themselves in the tackle market, having been connected to the likes of Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, Washington’s Troy Fautanu, Georgia’s Amarius Mims, and Alabama’s JC Latham throughout the pre-draft process. One year ago, the Steelers got in on the tackle market in the first round of the NFL draft, trading up to select Georgia’s Broderick Jones, who ended up starting 11 games in 2023.
Prior to Jones’ selection, the Steelers hadn’t drafted a tackle in the first round in since 1996 when they picked Jamain Stephens out of North Carolina A&T, a move that failed dramatically.
Other positions the Steelers have been tied to in the first round of the draft include cornerback and wide receiver. Names like Texas’ Adonai Mitchell and LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. are the big ones that have been connected to the Steelers as potential first-round picks at receiver.
The receiver position has been a major swing and miss from the NFL from 2000-2019. Seventy-seven receivers were drafted in the first round in that span, and only 21 were categorized as “hits” with the other 56 as “misses.”
The Steelers have had their success at the position, such as Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes, but it’s unclear if they’d be categorized here as “hits” or “misses” because of second-contract status. Burress played five seasons in Pittsburgh before signing with the New York Giants as a free agent, while Holmes was traded after his fourth season to the New York Jets.
Of course, the research from Hembekides is going back a decade before the rookie wage scale and fifth-year options were put in place in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Both are huge components to teams and how they handle first-round picks.
At cornerback, the Steelers have been connected to Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, Alabama’s Terrion Arnold, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean and Clemson’s Nate Wiggins as potential first-round picks.
The cornerback position has had a bit more success than receiver from 2000-2019. Seventy-one corners have been drafted in the first round in that span with 27 being categorized as “hits” and the other 44 as “misses” for a hit rate of 38%. Again, not great, but better than receiver.
The Steelers have had their issues at the cornerback position in the draft in the past. In 2016, Pittsburgh selected Artie Burns out of Miami (Fla.). Despite a strong rookie season, Burns never figured it out in Pittsburgh and lasted just four seasons. To his credit, he’s still in the NFL, holding down a depth role in Seattle.
So, there you have it. It’s well-known that the NFL draft is an inexact science, but based on some historical data, teams tend to have more success choosing some positions more than others.
