Earlier in the week, our Ross McCorkle took a trip down memory lane and noted the 100 percent correlation between the Pittsburgh Steelers starting a season 3-1 and making the playoffs. Every time it’s happened under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has punched a ticket to the postseason. Taking that one step further, what does history say if the Steelers begin the season 4-1 with a Week 6 win over the Cleveland Browns? History says Pittsburgh will win the AFC North.
Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has started 4-1 five times. And all five times, the Steelers ended the year with a division title. Here’s the history and results.
| Year | Final Record | AFC North Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 10-6 | 1st |
| 2008 | 12-4 | 1st |
| 2010 | 12-4 | 1st |
| 2016 | 11-5 | 1st |
| 2020 | 12-4 | 1st |
Pittsburgh won the division with all kinds of records. Ten, 11, and 12 wins. The AFC North standing remained the same, a crown atop their heads.
Beating Cleveland would give Pittsburgh its first AFC North win of the season. And it would still only be Week 6. That’s usually too early to start handing out the T-shirts and hats. The history of what happened last year, a hot start, a terrible finish that gave away divisional control, can’t be forgotten.
But with a win, Pittsburgh would be set up exceptionally well. It’s reasonable to assume the Bengals without Joe Burrow and the Ravens with all their injuries won’t do better than split their next two games. Even assume the Browns pull off the upset in London and, of course, lose to the Steelers the following week. Here’s how the standings would look exiting Week 6.
AFC North Possible Post-Week 6 Standings
Pittsburgh Steelers: 4-1 (1-0 divisional play)
Cincinnati Bengals: 3-3 (1-0 divisional play)
Baltimore Ravens: 2-4 (1-0 divisional play)
Cleveland Browns: 2-4 (0-3 divisional play)
Certainly, the Bengals and Ravens would be in mathematical play. As would the Browns but at 0-3 in the division, that’s a hard mountain to climb. Even in this scenario, the Steelers are still in the driver’s seat. And if the Bengals lose to the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, which is what the oddsmakers predict, they’ll drop to 2-4 with the Ravens and Browns.
There’s a lot of season to go. Even with a post-bye win (Mike Tomlin hasn’t lost a game post-bye since 2016), the Steelers have a lot of work to do. Taking care of business against the division will be key, and Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati in Week 7 after taking on Cleveland. Still, history is on the Steelers’ side. The correlation between 4-1 starts and division wins. And Pittsburgh’s general success against the division, finishing .500 or better every season since 2010. That’s the NFL’s longest active streak.
Beating Cleveland isn’t a guarantee. The two sides have split the season series each of the past three years. But if Pittsburgh comes out on top, it’s another sign this will be the year the Steelers win their first division crown since 2020. They would get to host a playoff game in the hopes of breaking the franchise’s postseason win drought.
