As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 8 game against the Green Bay Packers.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Jaylen Warren Wins The Battle Against Quay Walker
I’d bet a dollar Mike Tomlin challenged Jaylen Warren to step up this week. Not just as a runner but pass protector against former Packers first round pick Quay Walker. A massive linebacker at 6’4, 245-plus pounds, Walker is a thumping blitzer who loves to pressure from the interior. He has eight sacks in four seasons, including 1.5 this season along with a a career-high five QB hits already.
Warren is a capable pass protecting back who must prevent Walker from collapsing the pocket. Green Bay’s film study shows an Aaron Rodger still a little skittish when feeling the heat. Warren has to make plays when Walker is unblocked in the run game, the Packers d-line does a nice job keeping him free, but the pass game impact could be just as important.
2. Offense Keeps Finishing Drives
Points will be needed here. Green Bay’s scored 27 or more points in all but one game this season. Pittsburgh has to be able to match. Fortunately, the offense has done a nice job, especially finding the end zone instead of holding to field goals. If the Packers score, the Steelers’ offense must respond in kind.
And if Pittsburgh builds an early lead, it can’t shrink the way it has against New England and Cincinnati. In those games, Pittsburgh couldn’t build up a lead to start putting a game away early, allowing the opposition to hang around and storm back.
3. Run Defense Answers The Call
Pittsburgh’s run defense has been hot-and-cold. After moving in the right direction during the three-game winning streak, the Steelers got a wake-up call against the Cincinnati Bengals. But the Steelers have shown they can stop the run when playing with proper technique.
Josh Jacobs and the Packers run game hasn’t been terribly efficient this season but he has a nose for the end zone. Over the past two years, he’s No. 1 in the NFL with 20 rushing touchdowns inside the 10. He’s scored two rushing scores in each of his last three games. A fourth-straight time would make him one of just eight players since the merger and the first since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. Pittsburgh must be consistent but especially stand tall near its own goal line.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Packers Divide Routes Space The Steelers
As noted in our scouting report, the Packers haven’t hit the deep ball a ton this year but have a strong scheme under offensive-minded head coach Matt LaFleur. The offense puts safeties in conflict, forcing them to choose between the vertical route and the one over the middle. Pittsburgh may play more man coverage to combat that but if so, the cornerbacks will have to turn and run.
Green Bay offers youth and speed at receiver and is poised to get back big-play threat WR Christian Watson. This secondary will again be tested.
2. Offense Can’t Handle The *Other* Rushers
Micah Parsons is where is starts. As it should be. But Parsons is hardly the only rusher Pittsburgh has to account for. While the Steelers attention will turn to him with chips and slides, the rets of the offensive line will be one-on-one against quality rushers like Rashan Gary and a collection of high-pedigree draft picks. Pittsburgh must hold up in those matchups, too, or else the Packers’ pass rush will still win the day. Even if it isn’t Parsons having the direct impact.
3. Third And Long Remains An Issue
An obvious one here. Pittsburgh has struggled on third-and-long this season, 21st league-wide entering Week 8. Green Bay boasts the No. 1 overall third down offense and the No. 1 third-and-long offense, converting at an absurd 70 percent clip. The Steelers must be tighter and more disciplined in zone with a pass rush that gets home in those moments, though the Packers do a nice job chipping and slowing down the rush.
Getting offense’s into third and long is always the goal. But it’s no layup the Steelers will be able to force the final stop.
Prediction
Steelers: 24
Packers: 23
Season Prediction Record
2-4
