Not only does Nick Herbig deserve more snaps, some are beginning to wonder if he’s the Pittsburgh Steelers’ best pass rusher. Even better than T.J. Watt. ESPN’s analytics guru Seth Walder didn’t just wonder aloud but asked a front office source if the idea was crazy. The response? Not at all.
“Nick Herbig has a 40-percent pass rush win rate at EDGE right now,” Walder told The Ringer’s Sheil Kapaida. “Pass-rush win rate is the measure at which a defensive lineman gets past their blocker within 2.5 seconds. Just to put that in context, that’s best in the NFL. I texted a smart person in a front office and I said, ‘What do you think the chances are right now that Nick Herbig is currently the best pass rusher on the Steelers?’ This person said 45 percent.”
Answering “45 percent” is a bit of a weird response to a question that seemingly should be answered “yes or no” but that’s the life of the analytics fans in the world.
Herbig has been electric this season and, through four games, arguably the Steelers’ most productive pass rusher. Herbig leads the team with eight quarterback hits and has 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble despite missing the season opener. In Week 4, a Carson Wentz intentional grounding call negated a would-be Herbig sack.
Our metrics also favor Herbig. Per our weekly defensive charting, Herbig bests Watt in total pressure (14 versus 10) and snaps per pressure (7.9 versus 13.1).
But context is key. Watt still sees as much attention as nearly any pass rusher in football. Per this chart, Watt is doubled roughly 60 percent of the time. Herbig is half of that.
Flip the roles and Watt would be the more gaudy box-score player. Opposing offenses still build game plans around Watt, not Herbig, and though not part of the question, Watt’s ability to impact the game beyond just rushing the passer is elite. His run defense, coverage, and batted ball know-how allow him to make plays even when teams minimize his pass rush.
On the outside, there have been debates over balancing Alex Highsmith and Herbig’s snaps. The two could split reps evenly Sunday against the Browns. The more Herbig produces, the more chatter there could be about Herbig versus Watt, especially in future years as Watt approaches his mid-30s.
The Steelers don’t need to debate the point. They’ll happily have them all to make up one of the NFL’s top pass-rush trios, a unit that just needs to stay healthy and together to maximize their impact. The group should be together Sunday against Cleveland.
