As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week Four game against the Minnesota Vikings.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pass Game Finds Big Plays
Similar to the point we made last week, the best way to beat the Vikings’ aggressive defense is through some big plays. Though Minnesota’s run defense is weaker, it’s hard to nickel and dime your way downfield against this group. DK Metcalf has to get unlocked downfield and the collective speed and athleticism Pittsburgh has at receiver needs to be shown. YAC plays can still be beneficial but it would be nice to see Rodgers air one out and complete downfield to Metcalf, Austin, or someone else.
2. Rodgers’ Cadence Is The X-Factor
Brought it up during Friday’s Terrible Podcast. Want to counter Brian Flores? Two ways. Rodgers’ cadence is a weapon and must be utilized. That means hard counts to get the defense to tip its hand. Who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. The other way? Quick counts. Don’t give Minnesota the chance to spin its coverage and do all the pre-snap things it wants to do by going on one.
Hopefully, crowd noise will allow it. The majority should make up Steelers’ fans but it’s hard to know for sure and it’s hard to know how quiet they’ll be when Pittsburgh’s offense is on the field or if they’ll just generally be cheering throughout. Cadence must be the counter to the Vikings’ chaos.
3. Steelers Promise Of Man Coverage Shows (And Wins)
Pittsburgh loaded up at cornerback in order to play man coverage against anybody. Those were Mike Tomlin’s words. As of this writing, CB Joey Porter Jr.’s status is unknown after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Even if he doesn’t play, the Steelers still have two starting-caliber cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay. They’ll draw Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the latter coming off a three-game suspension.
Can Pittsburgh hold up? It’s not about making every play. But it’s about not giving up the big one and coming up large in big-time moments. Let’s see if Tomlin’s confidence shows on the field against the best group of receivers Pittsburgh’s faced all season.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Vikings’ Defense Overwhelms
An obvious one. Minnesota can be a suffocating unit. One that brings pressure, drops it out, looks unpredictable and how to read. Aaron Rodgers found that out in 2024, throwing three picks and taking three sacks in a loss to the Vikings. If Pittsburgh can’t run the ball and come up with answers in the pass game, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble. It won’t be a happy flight home from Dublin.
2. Defending Tight End Continues To Be An Issue
Pittsburgh’s issues defending tight ends continued last week, lit up by Hunter Henry for two touchdowns and a big day. It won’t get easier this week with T.J. Hockenson, two years removed from a torn ACL and playing like his old self. Like New England, Minnesota likes to use 3×1 formations with the tight end isolated backside. Can Pittsburgh do a better job communicating and not letting tight ends win at will? They need to.
3. Coaching Staff Gets Outschemed
Pittsburgh often wins not through brilliant coaching scheme but simplicity that lets the team play fast and let talent win out. Kevin O’Connell’s staff in Minnesota is known for its creative approach. O’Connell’s regarded as a quarterback whisperer, rebuilding Sam Darnold, increasing Daniel Jones’ value, and winning with Carson Wentz last week.
Minnesota has the scheme edge and if that shows in this game, Pittsburgh will be at a severe disadvantage.
Prediction
Vikings: 28
Steelers: 10
Season Prediction Record
1-2 (good news considering I’m picking Minnesota)
