As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week Two game against the Seattle Seahawks.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. The Run Game Gets Going
Obvious one here. Pittsburgh has to run the ball a whole lot better than Week One. It won’t be easy against the Seattle Seahawks’ tough 4-3 front that plays aggressively and has talent on its d-line, but the Steelers have to play on schedule and balance things out. That means a handful of explosive runs but more consistent run success. In Week One, Jaylen Warren’s run success rate sat at just 45 percent while Kenneth Gainwell was an abysmal 28.6 percent.
Perhaps Kaleb Johnson gets a little more work on early downs to try and jumpstart the ground game if the Steelers struggle early in the contest.
2. So Does The Run Defense
Getting back to fundamentals: Run the ball, stop the run. Seattle has similar run-game principles as the New York Jets: a zone-first offense with two backs who will see plenty of action. But Pittsburgh doesn’t need to worry and plan for a mobile quarterback like they did in Justin Fields, allowing them to turn full attention to the traditional running game. That’s a big advantage for the Steelers.
The group still has to get off blocks, make tackles, and rally to the ball, but if the Seahawks’ running game gets bottled up, it’ll be hard for them to win.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is Minimized
Seattle’s Week One passing game was built literally around ‘JSN.’ He accounted for over 80 percent of Sam Darnold’s passing yards and more than 50 percent of his attempts and completions. There’s a good reason to have CB Jalen Ramsey shadow him this week and force others to make plays. Seattle has other talented pass-catchers, but Smith-Njigba is a clear No. 1 in the offense, and taking him away forces the Seahawks to land on Plans B and C.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Seattle’s Defense Fools Rodgers
Seattle likes to ramp up the pressure, and that can be a problem against Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has seen it all, but it doesn’t always make it easier to handle the sim/mug looks head coach Mike Macdonald ramps up. Everyone has to be on the same page to handle those looks: the offensive line, quarterbacks, backfield, and receivers. But Rodgers is the man in charge of sorting it all out, and he must do so at a high level.
If not, turnovers and missed connections will get this team into trouble.
2. Pittsburgh Can’t Cover The Tight End
As noted above, Smith-Njigba was the main course in Week One for Seattle’s passing game. But they have to get others involved. I imagine their tight ends will be more involved after catching one combined pass a week ago. With a second-round rookie in Elijah Arroyo, a talented pass-catcher, count on Seattle looking to spread the ball around. Inside linebackers Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson must be able to cover in space, and Pittsburgh’s defense must show they can take away the position after struggling to defend it for years.
3. First Down Offense Still A Problem
Ties in with the previous point about running the ball. Pittsburgh’s first down offense bottomed out at 32nd a year ago and wasn’t much better in Week One, averaging 3.1 yards per play. The Steelers lived in third-and-long far too often against the New York Jets, facing 3rd and 6-plus on seven of ten third-down attempts. Pittsburgh made it work and converted several of those, but that can’t happen every week. Gotta make more hay on 1st and 10.
Prediction
Steelers: 17
Seahawks: 9
Season Prediction Record
1-0
