Mike Tomlin insists he doesn’t live in his fears, but the analytics told a different story Sunday — with the Surrender Index labeling his late third-quarter punt decision as downright cowardly.
The analytics tool gave the decision a 6.48 score on the surrender index, which was a 91st-percentile cowardly punt this season, and in the 88th percentile dating back to 1999.
Other than forcing some turnovers, the defense struggled to stop much of anything throughout the game, and the offense failed to sustain drives. They weren’t quite in field goal range, but pushed further downfield than they had most of the day. The defense was gassed after dealing with a lopsided time of possession. If anything worked on offense, it was the run game.
Tomlin had a chance to possess the ball, give his defense a break, and get into Chris Boswell’s field goal range. Instead, they pinned the Seahawks on the nine-yard line and allowed a 10-play drive ending in a field goal. Ultimately, that was the go-ahead score that gave the Seahawks a lead they never relinquished.
Tomlin, a defensive-minded coach, has always tended to put the game in his defense’s hands. But this proved to be a misguided decision in this game, with Sam Darnold and the Seahawks’ offense having their way with Pittsburgh. The Steelers converted just five of their 15 third-down opportunities, but Jaylen Warren did pick up a couple in third-and-short scenarios.
They couldn’t have known that Kaleb Johnson would allow a free touchdown on kickoff, but that’s not the point. The decision to extend that drive could have bought them the buffer that they desperately needed in a game that wasn’t going their way. Ironically, the 10-play field goal drive resulted in the kickoff that led to Johnson’s gaffe.
On a day that the opposing players outclassed the Steelers, savvy coaching decisions could have made the difference. Tomlin’s decision wasn’t — and it helped seal the Steelers’ fate.
