You’re at the slot machine. And luck be a lady tonight, you are crushing it. Every pull of the lever is a win. Every light on the machine is flashing. The grandma sipping her wine in the corner is giving the ultimate side-eye of jealousy. You. Can’t. Lose.
So when do you call it quits? That’s the winner’s dilemma. Sure, it’s easy to think about quitting while you’re ahead. You can’t win forever. But one more pull can’t hurt, can it?
That’s the choice every offensive coordinator faces. When a play works in a big way, do you go back to it? Keep calling it until the defense proves it can stop it? Or do you get ahead and pivot, moving onto the next play to forever put the defense in catch-up? There are no easy answers, and Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith has already felt the risk and reward.
Two of Aaron Rodgers’ four touchdowns in Week One’s win over the New York Jets came on the same playcall. Ben Skowronek and Calvin Austin’s scores were identical. From the Jets’ 22, the Steelers align 2×2. From the boundary, WR Calvin Austin motions behind the tight end and inserts himself into the C-gap on the snap. Skowronek, the No. 2/slot receiver to the bottom, runs a crosser/over route from left to right. Rodgers boots out, finds Skowronek open over the middle, and puts the ball on him for a score.
Touchdown Steelers.
After the Steelers forced a turnover on the kickoff, Pittsburgh took the lead on Austin’s first score of the year. Same exact play. From the 18, Austin motions from the boundary and inserts himself into the C-gap. Rodgers fakes the handoff, boots right, and hits Austin on a corner route as the Jets’ cornerback bites on the fake and slips trying to recover.
Touchdown Steelers.
Fast-forward one week. It’s the end of the half Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Pittsburgh comes out in 3×1 but motions TE Jonnu Smith across the formation, left to right, to make it 2×2. Smith is out wide with Metcalf in the slot to the right, bottom of the screen. To that side, the Steelers run a man-beater: a slant/flat combination, Smith on the slant, Metcalf on the flat/speed out.
To the other side, No. 1 receiver Calvin Austin III runs a quick out to the front pylon. No. 2 receiver Pat Freiermuth runs a corner route to the back pylon. Out of the backfield, RB Kenneth Gainwell runs a Choice/Angle route over the middle.
Seattle’s playing man doesn’t pass off Metcalf’s and Smith’s routes. Rodgers throws it up for Metcalf, who comes down with a great contested catch.
Touchdown Steelers.
Second half. After RB Jaylen Warren’s great 65-yard catch and run, the Steelers come out in 3×1. TE Jonnu Smith motions left to right to become the No. 1 out wide with Metcalf in the slot. To the top, the two run a slant/flat combination. To the bottom, Calvin Austin runs a speed out to the front pylon while Pat Freiermuth runs a corner route to the back pylon. Kenneth Gainwell runs a Choice/Angle route over the middle.
It’s the same play.
This time, it’s less open than before. And pressure forces Rodgers off his spot. Scrambling, he fires for Freiermuth in the back of the end zone. But Austin, attempting to find new grass in the scramble drill, gets in the way. Austin dives for the ball, tipping it up, and Seattle picks it off. A backbreaking play on multiple fronts. No touchdown, no points, no lead in a 14-14 game.
Against the Jets, the Steelers won twice with two scores off the same concept. Against the Seahawks, it worked well the first time (though Seattle wasn’t exactly fooled on Metcalf’s touchdown; he just made a great play) and ended in disaster the second. The interception isn’t all a product of scheme, but Seattle was more ready for it the second time around.
Is Smith in the wrong here? In hindsight, sure. Running the exact same play down to the formation, alignment, and motion isn’t going to fool every defense twice. Most can recognize and adjust. But the same could’ve applied in the Jets game, and Smith received plenty of praise for going back to that play, netting a touchdown in a major moment. There’s a great conversation to be had on the value of quitting while ahead versus going back to the well.
Will the repeat call find the end zone? Or will it end in a pick? Two games in, Smith is pulling the lever to find out.
