The Pittsburgh Steelers have stocked up at the tight end position, adding Jonnu Smith via trade to a room that already had Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington. Many thought the team needed another playmaker, assuming it would be a wide receiver, but Smith is the next move on the chess board. Coming off a Pro Bowl season (replacing Travis Kelce), this was an easy dot connect with ties to Steelers OC Arthur Smith and his high usage of tight ends. Today, the goal is to look at 12 and 13 personnel usage (number of RBs, TEs), and also target rates to the position for new QB Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh for comparison.
Lets start with a visual of 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs), viewing usage and success rates:
Right away, we see why the question was posed on a recent episode of The Terrible Podcast with the 2024 Steelers using 13 personnel far more than any team in our sights. Pittsburgh used the scheme at 35-percent per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), which led the NFL last season. Their success rate was below-the-line though, and makes sense why the team wanted to upgrade the position.
Even in 2023 (pre-Arthur Smith), the team had a 23-percent 13 personnel usage rate which ranked third that season and far more than the prior two seasons. That grouping also fared better, with a 42-percent success rate (seventh), the strongest rank of focused teams. Signs point to the high usage of 13 personnel continuing and hopefully back to a stronger recent success rate.
Comparatively, Rodgers offenses haven’t used the scheme nearly as much. One exception is 2018, when the Packers used 13 personnel at 15-percent, which ranked seventh that year. That was seven years ago though, and we can see from the visual that every other year (excluding 2023, only one pass attempt) was below a 10-percent usage rate.
There were some successful seasons though, each tying for the best success rate of the teams in our sights: 2018, 2019, and importantly, last year. Quality is of course the choice if forced to choose, but the big question is how it will look with the Black and Gold, who seem poised to use it often in 2025.
Now for a similar view of 12 personnel (1RB, 2 TEs):
On the top right, we see Rodgers had three seasons of above the mean usage and success with the Packers. These came in 2018, 2021, and 2022, with the best 49-percent success rate in the latter. Had successful plays nearly half the time each of those years, and using it often is quite encouraging. The 2024 Steelers had a comparable 47-percent success rate in 12 personnel.
Hopefully Rodgers brings those results to Pittsburgh as opposed to last season with the Jets that still used the scheme often, but tied for the least success at 40-percent with Pittsburgh in 2023. The hope for the 2025 Steelers is the most stocked cupboard at tight end, arguably of Rodgers’ career, and can lead to strong results.
This begs the question of who Rodgers had at his disposal. Here are targeted tight ends he had per season:
2024: Tyler Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert, Kenny Yeboah
2023: (Rodgers injured)
2022: Robert Tonyan, Josiah Deguara, Marcedes Lewis, Tyler Davis
2021: Josiah Deguara, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Tyler Davis, Dominique Dafney
2020: Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Jace Sternberger, Josiah Deguara, Dominique Dafney
2019: Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger
2018: Jimmy Graham, Lance Kendricks, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis
We see that Rodgers has had talent. 2018 was the best balance of usage and success in both 12 and 13 personnel, which arguably was the strongest roster at tight end in the span. While it still needs to play out on the field in the Steel City, the data points to optimism for the 2025 Steelers tight ends.
Lastly, here are target rates for the TE position over the last decade:
Since 2018, Pittsburgh clearly had more tight end targets in two seasons particularly: 2022 and last year in 2024. Both were just above a 24-percent target rate, ranking fourth in TE attempts in 2022, but 13th in 2024. This emphasizes targets have increased recently at the position across the league, and appears the Steelers plan to do the same.
Along those lines, it surprised me to see how low the other five seasons for Pittsburgh were, sans the injury-riddled QB season that was 2019. Even with the retired Ben Roethlisberger, who was throwing it all over the yard in three of those years, tight end targets were closer to average. As you’d expect, his tight ends top to bottom weren’t as strong as the current unit.
The results on Rodgers were lower than anticipated, below 18-percent in 6-of-7 seasons I studied. Again, 2018 shows up as the positive outlier when Rodgers targeted his arguably best TE room of the span at 19.4-percent. This fits the obvious expectation going into the study. If the tight ends are deep and a strength of the team, then high usage and success likely follows.
This aligns with the way Pittsburgh’s roster is constructed, along with scheme and targets featuring the position far more overall the last three years. Expect multiple TEs to be on the field often. The big question is will it lead to better quality? Time will tell.
