The Pittsburgh Steelers hope to bolster their offense with the addition of four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, but oddsmakers don’t see a big season coming from the 41-year-old quarterback. After throwing for 3,897 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2024 with the New York Jets, DraftKings set Rodgers’ over/under for passing yards at 3,200.5 and 23.5 for passing touchdowns.
Even if he goes just over those numbers, it would still be a statistical downgrade from his 2024 season. That doesn’t necessarily mean bad things for the Steelers, though, as it could mean that Pittsburgh’s run game is working and the team doesn’t need to lean on Rodgers. Obviously, though, the better Rodgers’ overall numbers are, the more likely the Steelers will have success.
As for WR DK Metcalf, DraftKings expects him to be right around the 1,000-yard mark, with his receiving yards over/under set at 950.5. Metcalf has had three seasons over 1,000 yards and three seasons where he’s gone over 900 yards but under 1,000 yards, so that seems like a good number for him. He’s expected to be Rodgers’ top target, and if Metcalf has more than 950 yards, it would seem like a good bet for Rodgers to go over 3,200 yards.
Rodgers has never thrown for under 3,695 yards in a full season. That number is his career low, which came in an 8-9 campaign with the Green Bay Packers during the 2022 season, his last year with the Packers. The 3,200 number makes sense when you consider that the Steelers will want to run under Arthur Smith and they don’t have a lot of big-name receivers for Rodgers to throw to, but it seems ambitious to expect him to throw for over 400 yards less than he ever has during his career.
Similarly, Rodgers has never thrown for less than 25 touchdowns in a full season. He threw for 25 touchdowns to just two interceptions in 2018, while throwing 26 touchdowns in 2019 and 2022. The 23.5 number would mean Rodgers has to throw for two fewer touchdowns than he has in his career for it to go under. Last season, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields combined for 21 total touchdown passes. Pittsburgh’s post-Ben Roethlisberger history of touchdown passes isn’t pretty, but I would be a bit surprised if he came in under 23.5.
We’ll see if Rodgers can go out on a high note with the Steelers reporting to training camp next week, but Vegas seems to think 2025 could be one of the worst statistical seasons of his career.
