Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the Steelers’ 91-man roster (the team is carrying an extra player because of EDGE Julius Welschof’s international exemption) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
As our previous exercises outlined, there are a few caveats.
– This percentage only refers to the odds the player makes the Steelers’ initial 53-man roster. It doesn’t consider their practice squad odds. With a 16-man taxi squad (17 with the exemption), many players who don’t have much chance to make the 53 will end up there. Keep that in mind when examining these percentages.
– It doesn’t consider or account for inevitable injuries. That will change the landscape of the Steelers’ roster, but those are unpredictable and won’t be factored in. What will be considered are potential trades and other roster moves to reshape the roster prior to Week 1.
– Those who are listed with identical percentages are ranked in alphabetical order.
Part One – The Longshots
Part Two – Outside Looking In
Part Three – Squarely On The Bubble
Part Four – Inside The Bubble
Part Five – The Near Locks
Steelers Locks (96%+ Of Making Steelers 53-man Roster)
WR Calvin Austin III: 100%
NT Keeanu Benton: 100%
K Chris Boswell: 100%
SS DeShon Elliott: 100%
OT Troy Fautanu: 100%
C Zach Frazier: 100%
TE Pat Freiermuth: 100%
DL Derrick Harmon: 100%
EDGE Nick Herbig: 100%
DL Cameron Heyward: 100%
EDGE Alex Highsmith: 100%
RB Kaleb Johnson: 100%
OT Broderick Jones: 100%
WR DK Metcalf: 100%
ILB Patrick Queen: 100%
OG Mason McCormick: 100%
CB Joey Porter Jr.: 100%
CB Jalen Ramsey: 100%
QB Aaron Rodgers: 100%
QB Mason Rudolph: 100%
OG Isaac Seumalo: 100%
CB Darius Slay: 100%
TE Jonnu Smith: 100%
S Juan Thornhill: 100%
RB Jaylen Warren: 100%
TE Darnell Washington: 100%
EDGE T.J. Watt: 100%
ILB Payton Wilson: 100%
CB Brandin Echols: 99%
ILB Malik Harrison: 99%
WR Roman Wilson: 99%
SS Miles Killebrew: 98%
EDGE Jack Sawyer: 98%
CB Beanie Bishop Jr.: 96%
There is not much explanation needed for these locks. The list has been updated to add CB Jalen Ramsey and TE Jonnu Smith, both obvious locks to make the team, while removing FS Minkah Fitzpatrick. CB Beanie Bishop Jr.’s percentage bumped down a few points. Frankly, he could be even a little lower than this, but he’s still poised to make the team as a backup slot corner.
His competition isn’t fierce, mainly based on spring reporting that Brandin Echols and Sebastian Castro weren’t seeing time there (that could change in camp, but neither figures to need a lot of time there now). Rookie Donte Kent should see slot reps, but he’s fighting James Pierre for a special-teams slot.
Sawyer sits at 98 percent just for that slightly off chance of a fourth-rounder not making the team. It’s rare, but it has happened before. Wide receivers Fred Gibson and Danny Farmar, along with CB Doran Grant, are all examples, though none of them are recent. Jeremiah Moon also provides competition, but Sawyer should still comfortably make the roster.
Killebrew’s standing may feel improved with Fitzpatrick gone, but his standing and role doesn’t change. He’s still a special teamer. A good one at that, but those guys can’t hang around forever, and if someone like Castro balls out, Killebrew could feel some heat. Still, his odds of making it in 2025 are very high.
The 99 percent is for the one-in-a-million chance a player tanks the summer and someone else emerges. That’ll apply to Harrison, Wilson, and Echols, but don’t get caught up in them not truly sitting at 100-percent. All three are fully expected to make it. I just wouldn’t put them in the category of the Pat Freiermuths and Derrick Harmons of the world. So they aren’t.
Here is the final list of percentages. Some players have been updated post-Fitzpatrick trade, too.
WR Calvin Austin III: 100%
NT Keeanu Benton: 100%
K Chris Boswell: 100%
SS DeShon Elliott: 100%
OT Troy Fautanu: 100%
C Zach Frazier: 100%
TE Pat Freiermuth: 100%
DL Derrick Harmon: 100%
EDGE Nick Herbig: 100%
DL Cameron Heyward: 100%
EDGE Alex Highsmith: 100%
RB Kaleb Johnson: 100%
OT Broderick Jones: 100%
WR DK Metcalf: 100%
ILB Patrick Queen: 100%
OG Mason McCormick: 100%
CB Joey Porter Jr.: 100%
CB Jalen Ramsey: 100%
QB Aaron Rodgers: 100%
QB Mason Rudolph: 100%
OG Isaac Seumalo: 100%
CB Darius Slay: 100%
TE Jonnu Smith: 100%
S Juan Thornhill: 100%
RB Jaylen Warren: 100%
TE Darnell Washington: 100%
EDGE T.J. Watt: 100%
ILB Payton Wilson: 100%
CB Brandin Echols: 99%
ILB Malik Harrison: 99%
WR Roman Wilson: 99%
SS Miles Killebrew: 98%
EDGE Jack Sawyer: 98%
CB Beanie Bishop Jr.: 96%
RB Kenneth Gainwell: 95%
QB Will Howard: 95%
LS Christian Kuntz: 95%
CB Cory Trice Jr.: 95%
C Ryan McCollum: 90%
DL Daniel Ekuale: 85%
OL Spencer Anderson: 80%
P Cameron Johnston: 75%
WR Robert Woods: 70%
OT Calvin Anderson: 70%
WR Ben Skowronek: 66%
CB James Pierre: 60%
DL Isaiahh Loudermilk: 60%
ILB Carson Bruener: 55%
DL Yahya Black: 55%
ILB Cole Holcomb: 50%
TE Connor Heyward: 49%
ILB Mark Robinson: 45%
DL Logan Lee: 33%
DB Sebastian Castro: 25%
FB DJ Thomas-Jones: 25%
P Corliss Waitman: 25%
CB Donte Kent: 20%
OT Dylan Cook: 20%
RB Cordarrelle Patterson: 20%
S Quindell Johnson: 20%
EDGE Jeremiah Moon: 15%
OL Max Scharping: 15%
OL Aiden Williams: 15%
TE JJ Galbreath: 10%
DL/EDGE DeMarvin Leal: 10%
WR Scotty Miller: 10%
OT Gareth Warren: 10%
LS Tucker Addington: 5%
OL Nick Broeker: 5%
LB Devin Harper: 5%
WR Brandon Johnson: 5%
OG Steven Jones: 5%
DE Dean Lowry: 5%
WR Lance McCutcheon: 5%
OL Doug Nester: 5%
DE Esezi Otomewo: 5%
WR Roc Taylor: 5%
QB Skylar Thompson: 5%
NT Domenique Davis: 2%
RB Trey Sermon: 2%
EDGE Julius Welschof: 2%
WR Ke’Shawn Williams: 2%
RB/ATH Max Hurleman: 1%
RB Evan Hull: 1%
DB D’Shawn Jamison: 1%
WR Montana Lemonious-Craig: 1%
EDGE Eku Leota: 1%
DB Cameron McCutcheon: 1%
CB Kyler McMichael: 1%
K Ben Sauls: 1%
DL Jacob Slade: 1%
A couple of changes on the previous list. Rookie TE/FB DJ Thomas-Jones’ odds decreased from 33 to 25 percent. TE Connor Heyward sees a similar decrease from 55 to 49-percent. Pittsburgh still is likely to keep four tight ends/fullbacks, creating one open spot with Jonnu Smith a lock as one of the team’s top-three tight ends. Thomas-Jones could be the better lead blocker, but he has to prove his special-teams worth.
Safety Quindell Johnson, signed just weeks before the Minkah Fitzpatrick deal, sees the biggest jump. He leaps from five to 20-percent. A combination of NFL experience and Fitzpatrick off the roster really helps him out. Rookie Sebastian Castro bumps from 20 to 25-percent, too.
