Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the Steelers’ 91-man roster (the team is carrying an extra player because of EDGE Julius Welschof’s international exemption) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
As our previous exercises outlined, there are a few caveats.
– This percentage only refers to the odds the player makes the Steelers’ initial 53-man roster. It doesn’t consider their practice squad odds. With a 16-man taxi squad (17 with the exemption), many players who don’t have much chance to make the 53 will end up there. Keep that in mind when examining these percentages.
– It doesn’t consider or account for inevitable injuries. That will change the landscape of the Steelers’ roster, but those are unpredictable and won’t be factored in. What will be considered are potential trades and other roster moves to reshape the roster prior to Week 1.
– Those who are listed with identical percentages are ranked in alphabetical order.
Part One – The Longshots
Part Two – Outside Looking In
STEELERS SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (41%-55% CHANCE OF MAKING 53-MAN ROSTER)
ILB Carson Bruener: 55%
DL Yahya Black: 55%
TE Connor Heyward: 55%
ILB Cole Holcomb: 50%
ILB Mark Robinson: 45%
Similar to last year’s version that had only six truly on the bubble with these odds and in mathematical validation, three of the six made the team (Cory Trice Jr., Van Jefferson, and MyCole Pruitt).
Bruener has high odds for a seventh-round rookie. His strong special teams background gives him an edge over Mark Robinson, who sits at under 50 percent despite making the roster each of his last three years. That should be a fun camp battle and it’s possible both make it if the other inside linebacker on the list, Cole Holcomb, isn’t the same player coming off his knee injury.
That three of the five players listed are inside linebackers shows how competitive the group is.
Elsewhere, Heyward’s odds have improved following Donald Parham’s season-ending Achilles tear. There’s less internal competition. Still, the team could add a tight end who might squeeze his spot and Arthur Smith didn’t have a defined role for him last season. Special teams will be Heyward’s calling card.
Some (or most) will balk at Black’s odds being this low. But there’s plenty of competition along the defensive line for a team that may only carry six of them. Black’s tape at Iowa was inconsistent and if the Steelers play him more at defensive end than nose tackle, something they’ve suggested, Black’s athletic limitations will be exposed. He certainly could make it, and my odds list him at better than a coin flip, but he has to earn and prove it. And that’s a good thing. Every fifth-rounder should earn their spot.
One last note. Since starting this series, the Steelers signed LS Tucker Addington. We’ll give him a five-percent chance of making the roster.
