Rather than just assigning a letter grade for each draft pick or giving a grade point average for the whole draft class, I wanted to evaluate the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2025 NFL Draft class in a slightly different way. What is the best- and worst-case scenario (and the most realistic) for each Steelers draft pick?
Just last year, Logan Lee and Ryan Watts were both sent to IR during (or immediately after) roster cutdown in August. The worst-case scenario for every pick would be a season-ending injury, so we will ignore that as a possibility for the sake of this exercise.
R1:21 – DT Derrick Harmon
Best-Case Scenario:
Week-one starter that plays roughly 60 percent of the defensive snaps (similar to Larry Ogunjobi last season). His CFB-leading pressures show up immediately and he logs six or seven sacks in his rookie season as a key piece of the defensive line.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Daniel Ekuale wins the starting job at the beginning of the season as Harmon’s missed tackles keep him off the field initially. He ends up playing roughly 35 percent of the defensive snaps and has a minimal impact in year one with only one or two sacks and a handful of missed tackles.
My Prediction:
It isn’t unusual for defensive linemen to need time to develop in the Steelers’ two-gap defensive front. Just look at Cam Heyward’s first couple seasons. That being said, I think Harmon is primed for a big first year much closer to the best-case scenario I laid out above.
R3:83 – RB Kaleb Johnson
Best-Case Scenario:
He transforms the Steelers’ offense as he allows Arthur Smith to run his preferred outside-zone run scheme. The explosive plays that were littered throughout his college tape show up and he continues the Steelers’ streak of 1,000-yard rushers despite Najee Harris leaving in free agency. With a weak WR class, he is in the conversation for Off. Rookie of the Year.
Worst-Case Scenario:
The offensive line fails to take a step forward and it proves much more difficult to run against stacked boxes than it was at Iowa. He ends up in a true three-man rotation with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell and gets relegated to splitting early-down duties with Warren.
My Prediction:
I am optimistic about Johnson’s impact. Smith called him a perfect fit and Tomlin said they are not worried about his speed at all. The offensive line should take a big step forward and the potential presence of Aaron Rodgers will make it difficult to stack the box. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he notches a 1,000-yard season as a rookie.
R4:123 – OLB Jack Sawyer
Best-Case Scenario:
He shows glimpses of Nick Herbig-like splash plays in limited action to set himself up for a bigger role down the stretch and in year two. He could earn a key role on early downs later in the season to spell Alex Higshmith or T.J. Watt on run downs to keep them fresh for money downs.
Worst-Case Scenario:
The three-man rotation ahead of him is a tough lineup to break into, and he struggles to find playing time in year one. His lack of athletic traits show up in the few pass-rushing opportunities he gets and he trends towards a run-stopping role.
My Prediction:
Preston Smith played 30 percent of the defensive snaps after the trade. Sawyer might play slightly less as a rookie, but there will be at least a few points throughout the season where he is thrust into a bigger role. His non-stop motor and knack for big plays will show up once or twice. I’ll call my shot and say two sacks with one forced fumble.
R5:164 – DL Yahya Black
Best-Case Scenario:
He earns a backup role both inside and outside and pushes somebody like Isaiahh Loudermilk off the roster. His 336-pound frame proves invaluable on early downs as a run stuffer as he plays about 20 percent of the defensive snaps.
Worst-Case Scenario:
He loses the camp battle to Loudermilk (or somebody else) and fails to make the 53-man roster. His freaky size gets him poached off the practice squad to another team’s 53-man roster.
My Prediction:
I think he will ultimately make the roster, but he might end up being a game day inactive for part or all of the season. That shouldn’t alarm anyone as fifth-round picks aren’t locks to even make the roster and he can redshirt for a season to develop and tighten up his body in the weight room.
R6:185 – QB Will Howard
Best-Case Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers doesn’t sign and the Steelers have to scramble for a lesser veteran backup with Mason Rudolph as the starter. In that case, Howard might have an outside chance at eventually earning the top backup role with a remote chance at starting a game or two due to injury.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Rodgers signs and Howard is locked into the QB3 role. Preseason is his only game-like scenario where he gets to show what he’s made of and he underwhelms in those limited opportunities.
My Prediction:
I think Rodgers will ultimately sign. While he’s 41 years old, he’s been pretty durable and plays through anything minor. Howard will likely only have the preseason to show his stuff, but I do think those limited opportunities will look good. Three touchdown passes in the preseason would turn some heads.
R7:226 – LB Carson Bruener
Best-Case Scenario:
He wins a job over Mark Robinson as a backup ILB and a core special teamer.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Robinson proves too valuable as a special teamer and Bruener gets sent to the practice squad.
My Prediction:
Not every draft pick makes the roster. The more I think about it, I can’t see Robinson getting bounced. He forced a fumble on special teams in back-to-back games last year. He is also probably a better backup inside backer in year four than Bruener would be as a rookie. I think he will end up on the practice squad and could be elevated a few times for special teams help.
R7:229 – CB Donte Kent
Best-Case Scenario:
He proves himself valuable on special teams, specifically as a gunner over somebody like James Pierre, to make the roster. He shows enough in the preseason to provide decent competition to Beanie Bishop Jr. in the slot.
Worst-Case Scenario:
His tape runs hot and (really) cold in the preseason and he fails to make the roster over Pierre.
My Prediction:
He might nab an interception in the preseason, but he got picked on a lot in college. He seems destined for the practice squad unless some injuries happen. Even then, they may look to sign veterans at roster cutdowns instead of relying on Kent in his rookie season.
