With rosters all but solidified in the NFL at this point in the offseason and the schedules set for the upcoming season, analysts are racing to get their win projections in for all 32 teams.
NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund did just that Wednesday night after the schedule release. In her win projection for the Pittsburgh Steelers under head coach Mike Tomlin, she has the Steelers slated for just 8.3 wins, which means they would have a losing season, snapping Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons at 18 years, were that to happen.
For Frelund, the 8.3 wins, which have the Steelers on the outside looking in on the playoff picture in the AFC, come down to the uncertainty at quarterback and the tough stretch of games post-Thanksgiving that could be really troublesome for the Black and Gold.
“We still don’t know exactly who will be under center for the Steelers, but one thing is for certain: They will have their fifth different starting QB in as many seasons when they head to New York to face the Jets in Week 1,” Frelund writes regarding the Steelers and the wins projection for 2025. “Of course, the spice factor will be off the charts if Aaron Rodgers whose two-year run with Gang Green ended in disappointment, is leading Pittsburgh against Justin Fields, the last guy to start a season at QB for the Steelers, but perhaps even more important will be whether the new QB and new WR1 DK Metcalf have had time to get on the same page.
“As of right now, the post-Thanksgiving window forecasts to be the most dicey for the Steelers: They host the Bills in Week 13, then visit the Ravens in Week 14, host the Dolphins on a Monday in Week 15, then head to Detroit in Week 16.”
The uncertainty at quarterback is very unsettling. They continue to wait for a decision from 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and the longer it drags on, the closer they get to the start of Organized Team Activities, which opens on May 27.
Longtime Steelers’ beat writer Mark Kaboly believes it’s only a matter of time until Rodgers signs. However, until Rodgers signs on the dotted line and the ink dries, quarterback is an uncertain aspect of the team, which hinders them when it comes to win projections this season.
Granted, teammates believe in quarterback Mason Rudolph, and some on the coaching staff have quite a bit of familiarity with him, too. After all, he did lead the Steelers to the playoffs in 2023 and played some good football. But Rudolph, as a starting quarterback in 2025 to open the season, is a concern.
Add in the fact that the schedule for the Steelers is a difficult one, especially late in the season once again, and it could be quite hard for the Steelers to get to 9 wins to keep the non-losing streak going for Tomlin, a streak that many within the fanbase are sick of hearing about, especially as the team continues to go one-and-done in the playoffs and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.
Maybe a losing season for the Steelers, coupled with the 12 picks they are currently projected to have in the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, is just what the team needs to get out of the mediocrity that they find themselves in.
