Every year, ESPN analyst Mike Clay releases his post-draft stat predictions for each NFL team. A conservative estimate that factors in injury, his estimates for the Pittsburgh Steelers are underwhelming.
Here are some of the notable offensive predictions:
Aaron Rodgers: 500 attempts, 3,549 passing yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs
Kaleb Johnson: 217 carries, 918 yards 7 TDs
Jaylen Warren: 165 carries, 721 yards 4 TDs
DK Metcalf: 73 receptions, 1,023 yards 6 TDs
George Pickens: 69 receptions, 989 yards 6 TDs
Pat Freiermuth: 63 receptions, 545 yards 3 TDs
Roman Wilson: 3 receptions, 36 yards 0 TDs
Most players are assumed to play 15 games, while Johnson and Warren’s projections are over 14-game participation.
If Rodgers’ numbers come true, it would be disappointing production. He’s thrown for at least 25 touchdowns in every season in which he’s played double-digit games. While Rodgers tossed 12 interceptions last season, it came across 17 starts and 542 attempts. With the NFL’s lowest interception percentage, it would be an ugly touchdown-to-interception ratio that would leave Pittsburgh unsatisfied.
Clay’s prediction suggests Johnson will surpass Warren as the Steelers’ primary rusher. Warren likely opens up as the team’s starter and enters a contract year with a potential big payday on the other side. However, Johnson is a solid scheme fit to capture some of the outside zone schemes Arthur Smith didn’t call last season, and if he’s more productive, Warren could be shoved back into a 1B/third-down role.
Metcalf’s projected prediction would mirror his 2024 with the Seattle Seahawks, when he caught 66 passes for 992 yards and five touchdowns. Pickens’ numbers would also be similar, but six touchdowns would triple his total from a year ago. It would be discouraging if Freiermuth finishes with a rookie-like 8.6 yards per reception.
Worse yet would be Roman Wilson’s three-reception season, giving him almost zero production through his first two years. Perhaps he would break out in Year Three the way Calvin Austin III did, but Pittsburgh would be targeting a top wide receiver in 2026, assuming George Pickens doesn’t return.
Defensively, here are notable Steelers predictions:
T.J. Watt: 60 tackles, 10.1 sacks
Cam Heyward: 72 tackles, 4.7 sacks
Patrick Queen: 129 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT
Darius Slay: 61 tackles, 2.5 INTs
Minkah Fitzpatrick: 96 tackles, 1.3 INTs
Middling numbers here, too. Watt finished with just 11.5 sacks a season ago, and further regression will create major concern over his longevity. Heyward held off Father Time for another season, but a five-sack projection is fair given his age. Anything above would be a historical outlier (of course, what he did in 2024 was a historical outlier). Fitzpatrick will need more than one interception and return to his play-making ways.
Overall, Clay projects Pittsburgh to finish with 8.7 wins and be 15th in the NFL. If there’s a silver lining, he ranks Pittsburgh 27th in strength of schedule. On paper, an easier path compared to a season ago.
Clay’s projections for the Steelers are intentionally on the low end, and he’d even be the first to admit many players will surpass these totals. It would be better if he just predicted every player’s stats over a 17-game season. Check out his team-wide predictions below.
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