Pittsburgh Steelers GM Omar Khan fielded a ton of questions Tuesday at the NFL Scouting Combine, including about RB Jaylen Warren. But there is one question he didn’t answer about Warren, and it’s one worth considering. A pending restricted free agent, Khan revealed the obvious, which is that the Steelers plan to render him. What he did not share with us is which restricted tender the Steelers are likely to apply.
This is a topic we went into recently, and to some it might seem overly pedantic. I suspect that there are plenty of pedantic readers of Steelers Depot, though, so that shouldn’t be a problem. Basically, the question is over a roughly $2 million risk the Steelers could take with Jaylen Warren.
There are three different tender levels for restricted free agents—first round, second round, and right of first refusal. Under the right of first refusal, teams are eligible to receive compensation equivalent to the round in which a player is drafted should another team sign him to an offer sheet they decline to match. Because Warren is a former college free agent, the Steelers would receive nothing.
That is why so many throughout the offseason have believed that the Steelers would put a second-round tender on Jaylen Warren. But the lowest tender is projected at $3,267,000, whereas the second-round tender is projected at $5,351,000. Is Warren worth $5.3 million? Is risking losing him while not retaining Najee Harris worth roughly $2 million?
Over the past month, I have come over to the idea of the Steelers applying the lowest tender on Warren. A year ago, opposing teams were talking about having to plan for him in their game preparation. We didn’t hear any such talk last year, and he did have a down season.
A lot of that had to do with the fact that he was banged up for a while, of course. But how much are people willing to pay for a fourth-year running back with 1,674 rushing yards and six touchdowns? Of course, the Steelers use Warren heavily in the passing game, adding another 894 yards but no more touchdowns.
The thing is, the Steelers have the right to refuse to match any offer for Jaylen Warren. That also means they have the right to match any offer, and who is overpaying for Warren? This is regarded as an especially deep class for running backs, so who is spending $7 million on a backup?
Early on, beat writers were simply saying second-round tender as they assumed it was a given. As we got deeper into the offseason, and they likely actually hear things, they’ve changed their tune. Not long ago, multiple reporters indicated the Steelers plan to use an original-round tender on Warren.
Until they actually do, though, we won’t know. Perhaps they haven’t even made a final decision yet; perhaps it depends on their options. Are they really considering re-signing Najee Harris, and would failure to do so prompt them to protect themselves against losing Warren?
