A factor that has been lacking from Pittsburgh’s passing attack has been throwing over the middle of the field. Today, I wanted to look at how college quarterbacks fared in this regard, focusing on combine invites.
First, let’s look at over-the-middle attempts (for quality), and one of the best quality stats out there in Adjusted Net Yards/Att (ANY/A), which is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked).
Two quarterbacks stick out above the rest of their draft class in over the middle ANY/A.
Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss posted a 16.7 ANY/A last season, impressively the best of any FBS quarterback per SIS. This came on 77 attempts, the fourth-least of the 15 combine invites. 1,079 yards, 15 TDs, and just two INTs over the middle. Huge part of his overall production, namely 51.7-percent of his 29 total touchdowns.
Ohio State’s Will Howard is the other, with a 15.2 ANY/A over the middle, ranking second-best of college QBs. Had slightly more attempts (88) than Dart, slightly below the mean of qualifiers. 1,185 over the middle yards, with ten TDs and one INT. Less scoring (28.6 of his touchdowns), but stronger INT rate.
Only two players were above the mean in each, but none were at the extreme top right, unfortunately. Miami’s Cam Ward had the third-best 12.1 ANY/A on 94 attempts (seventh). 1,093 yards, nine TDs, and three INTs. The latter was a high 42.9-percent of his seven total INTs, compared to a 23.1 TD rate.
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel had a 10.3 ANY/A on the most attempts yet (123, T-second). 1,123 over the middle yards, seven TDs, and no INTs. Taking care of the football is extremely valuable to Pittsburgh, along with a 23.3 TD rate.
Two more round out the above-average ANY/A marks. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe posted an 11.8 ANY/A, but only 43 attempts were the second least of qualifiers: just 519 yards, four TDs (25-percent), and two INTs (11 total).
Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke was the sixth QB with a ten-plus ANY/A (above average) at 10.2. 87 attempts tied for ninth, just below the mean. 817 over the middle yards, eight TDs (27.6-percent), and two of his five total INTs.
Other important elements are yards per attempt (YPA) and average throw depth (ATD), which help us understand quarterbacks who benefited more from the talent around them or vice versa.
Dart clearly separated himself from the rest of the pack in these terms. This is particularly true for his 15.1 average throw depth, over four yards more than his peers. 14.0 yards per attempt was a strong result that also paced the field. So, Dart’s top ranks across the board (sans attempts) also relied on his arm the most of any of the 15 quarterbacks.
Yes, the talent of the receiving corps is a factor, and he had multiple draftable players at his disposal. We see the player who leaned on their pass catchers the most was Howard, with the lowest 6.1 average throw depth of the group, but his receivers impacted the second-best 13.5 yards per attempt number. More throws short for yards after catch, in other words.
Important context to Howard’s numbers and why Dart’s results were more impressive from a QB perspective.
Milroe and Ward were next in terms of yards per attempt, rounding out the four above-the-mean quarterbacks in that regard last season. Throw depths were nearly identical, with Milroe getting a bit more yards per attempt from his playmakers.
The rest either had above-average throw depths that lacked connection in comparison or were below average in each.
Conclusion
While there are many factors to successful quarterback play, Dart stuck out as the best over-the-middle passer among the 15 quarterbacks invited to the combine. This is an element many fans have been clamoring for more of in Pittsburgh’s offense.
Considering that fact, the important question is if that’s by design from Steelers coaching, which seems to be the case. I believe it’s an untapped resource that Pittsburgh lacks and could benefit from.
Along with this is a quarterback’s preferences, and neither Steelers’ quarterback seemed to favor this area of the field. For comparison, Russell Wilson had 29 over-the-middle attempts in 2024 (34th), sliding down compared to 25th in total attempts.
Also, the NFL is a different animal in terms of competition. That, of course, means no guarantee for the college stats to translate. But, seeing an ability that was clearly the best of this year’s draft class in over-the-middle passing from Dart will surely be intriguing for an NFL team.
