With the restricted status of Jaylen Warren, the Steelers actually have two running backs hitting free agency. Obviously, they hold considerably more control over Warren than they do Najee Harris, but they have decisions to make. In particular, they must decide which restricted tender to put on him.
For most of the past year, the prevailing wisdom has been that they would use a second-round tender on Warren. As a former college free agent, the Steelers would not be entitled to any draft compensation should they choose not to match any offer sheet he was to sign with another team. But they would still hold the right of first refusal, eligible to match any offer. And that seems to be the route they intend to take, as multiple reporters have recently intimated.
“Warren is a restricted free agent, which means the Steelers are likely to tender him a right-of-first-refusal offer that will cost them only $3.18 million in 2025”, Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote. Similarly, colleague Ray Fittipaldo mused on the North Shore Drive podcast that they will “probably give him an original-round tender”.
In recent weeks, I myself have come around to the idea of the Steelers only using an original-round tender on Jaylen Warren. Especially coming off his unremarkable season, I don’t think there is a great threat of another team signing him to an unreasonable contract. The worst-case scenario is likely another team simply doing the Steelers’ contract negotiations for them.
You see, the projected contract cost between the two tags is not insignificant. Over the Cap projects a Right-of-First-Refusal tender value of $3,185,000. In contrast, tagging Jaylen Warren at the second-round level would cost the Steelers $5,217,000.
Now, $2 million is not an exorbitant sum if it’s the difference between retaining or losing your primary running back. And many expect the Steelers to let Najee Harris walk and move forward with Warren. But one has to consider the risk versus the money. How much would another team be willing to sign Warren to, especially with a robust running back draft class?
As much as Steelers fans love Warren, we’re not talking Pro Bowls here. Over three years, he has 1,674 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 346 carries. He also has 894 receiving yards on 127 receptions but added no more touchdowns. Yes, his sample size is low for a three-year career, but it’s also a projection that he could produce at a similarly efficient level with a greater workload.
After the 2023 season, you had defenders and opposing teams talking about Jaylen Warren as a guy they prepared for when playing the Steelers. While he didn’t have a bad 2024 season—certainly one marred by injury— that reputation has subsided.
I just don’t think there are going to be many teams that would even consider putting together an offer sheet. It’s uncommon for teams to do that for restricted agents, generally, in part because there’s too great a risk of no reward for a considerable amount of work. Maybe if there’s a team that really sees Jaylen Warren as perfectly fitting its philosophy. But otherwise, I don’t think the Steelers have much to worry about.
