The Pittsburgh Steelers have certainly been linked to a lot of quarterbacks this offseason. There are the two starters from 2024: Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. The former NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers. Former sixth-overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Daniel Jones. Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford. We know Sam Darnold could be a hot commodity on the free agent market. And there’s even Kirk Cousins.
How do these quarterbacks match up against some of the Steelers’ offensive philosophies? And what the heck do I mean by those philosophies? During training camp in 2024, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith talked about the need to be aggressive “but not reckless.” That means he knows the Steelers need to be able to push the ball down the field without being stupid. Smith also loves to use play-action.
And then there’s head coach Mike Tomlin. He speaks about not wanting to live in his fears, but we know the most important thing he values in an offense is protecting the ball.
So, I’m going to evaluate each of the above quarterbacks in three major areas: throwing the deep ball, play-action, and turnovers. I will break down each of those areas further to give us a better picture of how they perform.
Going Deep
When the Steelers turned to Russell Wilson in Week 7, we saw a difference in terms of the emphasis on throwing the ball deep. That speaks to Arthur Smith’s desire to be smartly aggressive. How do all of these quarterbacks fare when throwing the ball 20+ yards through the air? Let’s take a look at completion percentage, adjusted completion percentage, and turnovers. Adjusted completion percentage takes into account all aimed passes and factors in drops as well.
Russell Wilson was the most accurate deep-ball passer in the league last year. Whether you’re looking at regular completion percentage or adjusted completion percentage, he was the best in the league. Not far behind him is one of the most intriguing potential free-agent quarterbacks, Sam Darnold. While with the Vikings, Darnold was a top-five deep-ball passer in terms of completion and adjusted completion percentage. However, he threw the fourth-most picks on passes attempted 20-plus yards downfield.
Justin Fields was actually one of the worst quarterbacks in terms of completion percentage, both regular and adjusted. When I wrote about two things the Steelers need to improve on if they retain Fields, this was an area I mentioned. Fields has been a better deep-ball thrower in the past, so it seems like there should be an opportunity for improvement if he comes back in 2025.
Play Action
Play-action is a staple of Arthur Smith’s offense. Whoever the next Steelers quarterback will be, he’ll need to do a good job executing it. Let’s take a look at completion percentage when using play-action, the difference between completion percentage when using play-action versus not, how often they used it (percentage of total dropbacks using play action), and average depth of target (factoring in smart aggression).
One thing that stands out is how not aggressive both Fields and Wilson were when using play-action in 2024. Both of them were in the bottom 10 among qualifying quarterbacks in ADOT. Wilson averaged an ADOT of 5.5 yards, 40th. Fields only averaged an ADOT of 4.9 (42nd). And Fields was one of three quarterbacks we’re looking at who actually had a lower completion percentage when using play-action. That was another area I said the Steelers need to focus on improving if they bring Fields back in 2025.
Out of the listed quarterbacks, only one cracked the top 10 in ADOT: Kirk Cousins. He averaged an ADOT of 10.0 yards, 7th-best in the league. However, we see that aggression worked against him in terms of completion percentage, as he only posted a completion percentage of 58.5 percent (40th). He actually had a completion percentage that was 9.8 percent lower when using play-action in 2024.
But Sam Darnold posted the highest completion percentage among this group of quarterbacks (and fifth-best among all qualifying quarterbacks) while still pushing the ball down the field (9.8 ADOT). That’s a darn good job of taking smart shots and being aggressive with play action.
Turnovers
When it comes to evaluating quarterbacks for the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is no bigger criteria than turnovers. It’s arguably the most important piece of the offensive puzzle for head coach Mike Tomlin. Let’s take a look at how many interceptions these quarterbacks throw, how often they throw passes considered interceptable (PFF’s Turnover Worthy Plays), and how often they fumble.
What stands out? Fields threw interceptions on fewer pass attempts than any other quarterback on this list. He also threw interceptable passes at a rate lower than all but two other quarterbacks on this list. Wilson also had a TWP rate lower than any of the other quarterbacks on this list.
Meanwhile, Cousins was at the top of the list in all the wrong ways. He led the league in interceptions (16) and fumbles (13) while also throwing an interception on 3.5 percent of all his passes. That’s the most out of this group of quarterbacks. He also had a TWP on 4.6 percent of all his passing attempts.
Final Thoughts
There are a few things that are immediately obvious. At this point in his career, Kirk Cousins is not what the Steelers are looking for in a quarterback. He was a turnover machine in 2024, by far the worst of the quarterbacks on the list.
In 2024, Russell Wilson was the best combination of deep-ball passer and turnover-preventer out of the group. So, it makes sense that there are those in Pittsburgh who would want to keep Wilson for 2025. Justin Fields was much lower on the list for both play-action and deep-ball metrics. However, we’ve seen him perform better in both areas while he was in Chicago, so there is still potential for improvement there.
So, if you’re trying to figure out where the Steelers might go for a quarterback in 2025, it’s safe to say that they’ll start with either of the starting quarterbacks from 2024. That was the message from general manager Omar Khan on Tuesday when he spoke to media from Indianapolis for the NFL Combine.
But Khan also said that the search for 2025’s starting quarterback wouldn’t stop there, either. He seems committed to exhausting all of the available options for finding a suitable starting quarterback. While this list is not exhaustive, it should give us all at least an idea of who could be suitable candidates for the Steelers’ starting quarterback spot in 2025.
