With the start of the 2025 NFL year roughly three weeks away, the Pittsburgh Steelers will need to make key decisions when it comes to a few players by the middle of March. One of those key forthcoming decisions revolves around RB Jaylen Warren, who is poised to be the team’s only restricted free agent this offseason. While it seems almost certain that the Steelers will restricted tender Warren in the next three weeks, the level at which they are likely to do so is worth discussing.
With Warren entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022, the likely restricted tender he will receive from the Steelers will be either a second-round or right-of-first-refusal one. According to Over the Cap, the projected amounts for those two restricted tenders are $5.217 million and $3.185 million, respectively. The exact amounts, however, won’t be known until the NFL officially announces the 2025 salary cap amount.
Should the Steelers go the cheaper, right-of-first-refusal restricted tender with Warren, they would stand a decent chance of losing him to another team without any compensation should they decide not to match a signed offer sheet. That would be quite a gamble on the Steelers’ part and even with the 2025 NFL Draft class perceived as an extraordinarily strong one at the running back position.
While I can’t imagine Warren being offered a sheet with an APY of greater than $6 million, any multi-year offer above and beyond an APY of $3.185 million with fully guaranteed money beyond just 2025 would potentially result in the Steelers deciding not to match it. Any offer sheet Warren might receive from another team that includes “up-to” amounts based on incentives is something the Steelers usually shy away from as well. They just don’t like those incentive contracts for some reason.
Should, however, the Steelers ultimately give Warren a second-round restricted tender, essentially just $2.032 million more than a right-of-first refusal restricted tender, they would be guaranteed to retain him for at least the 2025 season. Why? Well, because no team is going to sign Warren to an offer sheet that return a second-round draft pick to the Steelers should it go unmatched.
Will the Steelers be willing to take a $2.032 million gamble on Warren by just offering him a right-of-first-refusal restricted tender? Is Warren even worth a second-round restricted tender of around $5.217 million? Those are questions that only they can answer right now.
While the Steelers could certainly offer Warren a contract prior to giving him any restricted free tender in the next three weeks, he would likely be advised to not accept any multi-year offer from Pittsburgh with an APY of less than $5.217 million and certainly not lower than $3.185 million, the projected right-of-first refusal amount. Regardless of what most reading this post view as a fair APY for Warren, it’s hard to argue it being less than $3.5 million right now.
Warren is a “good” NFL running back. That said, he’s probably not going to be considered an every-down back moving forward. He has had some issues as a pass protector and while mildly explosive as a runner and good after first contact, Warren has only logged 10 runs of 20 yards or longer in the NFL on 346 regular-season carries. He’s also never registered more than 149 rushing attempts in a regular season. As for his runs of 10 yards or longer, Warren has registered 49 of those for a rate of 14.2 percent. Not awful, mind you.
In short, Warren is most likely going to be considered a complementary NFL running back by any team that might want to sign him to an offer sheet this offseason.
Now, whether the Steelers decide to restricted tender Warren at whatever level could obviously be impacted by whether the team signs RB Najee Harris to a new contract this offseason. Harris, however, becomes an unrestricted free agent if not extended by the start of the new league year. Personally, I’m expecting the Steelers to allow Harris to ride off to another team in free agency next month.
The Steelers might also decide to move on from RB Cordarrelle Patterson in the next few weeks as well. If that indeed happens, and if Harris is allowed to move on in free agency, the team would stand a good chance of not having any of its top three running backs from 2024 in 2025 should Warren only be restricted tendered at a right-of-first refusal level.
Now, should the Steelers ultimately decide to restricted tender Warren at a second-round level in the next three weeks, they could still work toward signing him to a multi-year contract extension as the offseason progresses. Even so, Warren would likely be looking to sign a multi-year contract extension with an APY equaling at least his second-round restricted tender amount or greater. I mean, why wouldn’t he?
Recently, Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote that he believes the Steelers are likely to tender Warren a right-of-first-refusal offer for 2025. Maybe he has been told that by the Steelers. Regardless, the expectations are that Warren will be restricted tendered in the next three weeks, and we’ll have to wait and see at what level they decide to do so. In the meantime, what level would you restricted tender Warren prior to the start of the 2025 league year?
