Many pundits predicted The Steelers would have their first losing season under Mike Tomlin in 2024. They ensured that would not be the case by Week 13, but that’s as far as they got. After jumping out to a 10-3 record, they lost their final four regular-season games. While they qualified for the postseason, they participated in an uncompetitive game with the team that stole their division title.
So how exactly are we to assess what has transpired? Did Mike Tomlin overperform with this Steelers roster or underperform? Bill Barnwell actually argued the former—that is, overperform—in a lengthy ESPN Insider article published yesterday.
Barnwell argued that Tomlin is making the Steelers’ roster better, for starters. I’m not sure how much he helps himself by citing Minkah Fitzpatrick as a player Tomlin developed, though. Barnwell also cites the results that he achieved from castoff quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields—which is fair.
The fundamental problem with the debate, though, is an obvious one. If Mike Tomlin is underperforming or overperforming, he is doing so with a Steelers roster he largely built. While they operate with a collective of decision-makers, Tomlin has his fingerprints on every aspect of this team. If a player is on the roster, it’s because he believes that player belongs there.
That makes it difficult to argue he is overperforming with the Steelers roster he has, because it is the rosters of his own choosing. A chef can’t blame his ingredients if he is the one who went shopping for them. At least, to a degree, anyway, as there are limitations to player and produce acquisition.
In that regard, I believe whether the Steelers are overperforming and whether Mike Tomlin is overperforming are separate questions. If Tomlin has a roster full of weaknesses, he primarily has himself to blame. But that doesn’t change the team’s circumstances, and few conceived of this as a particularly good team in August.
If the Steelers overperformed this season, I don’t believe they did so by much. A 10-7 record and a first-round playoff exit was not an unreasonable possibility at the start of the year. Part of that is due to the credit Mike Tomlin receives as their coach. But at what point does his charm wear off and start resulting in losses?
There are, of course, non-general managerial criticisms regarding how Mike Tomlin runs the Steelers’ ship, which is listing these days. The tide is clearly turning, and even some of his most vocal supporters in the national media are opening their ears to the possibility of change.
For fans hoping for a breath of fresh air, however, they will likely have to wait at least another year. It doesn’t appear the Steelers have any intention of moving on from Mike Tomlin in 2025. After all, he is just starting out on his contract extension this year, and they don’t want to waste that money.
