T.J. Watt isn’t a favorite of the analytics community. With a lower pass-rush win rate, double-team rate, and other below-the-surface stats, it’s a big reason why he lost to Myles Garrett in the DPOY award race a year ago. Some voters directly cited analytics as the reason why. But for those who have gone up against him, his talent and ability are undeniable. Former Kansas City Chiefs OT Mitchell Schwartz weighed in on pushback against Watt for why he doesn’t generate the consistent pressure others around the league do.
Schwartz pointed to how often Watt gets chipped, his stance, and the scheme as reasons why.
“Watt is chipped more than anyone else and that has a much larger impact on winning under 2.5 seconds as a DE than being double teamed does. That’s in part due to the respect teams have for him, and also due to his more stationary positioning and knowing where he’s going to be 98% of the time. Additionally, Watt is asked to square his stance and play more of a head up 2-gap role on TEs more than any other DE, which again impacts his get-off and quick-win percentage.”
Strong points from Schwartz across the board. While Watt doesn’t attract “true” double-teams as the rate of players like Myles Garrett, he’s chipped more than anyone else in football. By a wide margin. In the most recent article Pro Football Focus wrote on the subject in mid-December, Watt led the league in chip rate at nearly one-third of the time. The next closest was Garrett at just 26 percent, the only two players in the 20s.
Chipping certainly hinders the ability to beat the tackle. It may get counted as a one-on-one “loss,” but the offense’s chip comes at a consequence. They have fewer players out in the core pattern, making it harder to throw the ball, and teams with high-targeted tight ends have to decide if it’s better to ask them to chip Watt and lose the route or run the route and leave a 1v1 matchup.
Watt is more than just a pass rusher. He is one of the NFL’s most complete players who plays the run as hard and effectively as any EDGE player. That focus and change in stance, not always in a sprinter’s stance racing upfield and playing the run on the way to the quarterback, also hurts his ability to win off the edge. And though it’s not frequent, he drops into coverage more than others. Per our charting, about five percent of the time this season.
As I’ve always maintained, the Watt versus Garrett debates are exhausting, unmoving, and fruitless. Both players are great. Even Steelers fans, much as they may not like the guy for his past actions and boastful nature, have to admit Garrett is a generational player and first-ballot Hall of Famer just like Watt. Nit-picking over win rates and chip rates is a waste of energy.
Neither player’s accomplishments should be discredited and Schwartz’s perspective, someone who can say they’ve been on the other side of Watt, is vital.
