As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 17 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pass Rush Takes Over
This is where Pittsburgh could have a clear advantage. Kansas City has had issues at tackle rotating through several on Patrick Mahomes’ blind side this season. They’ve now defaulted to playing LG Joe Thuney at left tackle and he’s played good football, shades of Alan Faneca kicking out from guard to tackle in 2003.
But that’s left them thinner at left guard with little-known Mike Caliendo making his first starts of his career at left guard. That’s the “fish” of the week, the weakness along the line to go after. One that works in Cam Heyward’s favor. He has to collapse and constrict the pocket.
And still, even with Thuney at left tackle, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig have to win those matchups. Don’t get stoned by a guard. Gotta get to Mahomes and put them in third-and-long. Anything third and short/medium, that’s where the Chiefs thrive.
2. O-Line Picks Up Stunts
The Steelers’ offensive line has had trouble in stunt pickup in recent weeks, especially early in games. Gotta be on the same page, level, communicate and pass off. Chiefs love using their d-tackle stunt, especially if Chris Jones suits up and fights through a calf injury. Gotta protect Russell Wilson. Earn those gifts.
3. Pickens, Elliott Are The Structural Solutions
Pittsburgh’s still missing pieces but getting back WR George Pickens and SS DeShon Elliott are big additions. Not just for their individual talents but their structure. Pickens forcing more two-high to lighten the box and help the run. Elliott allowing Minkah Fitzpatrick to return to FS and improve communication. We’ll see if this team can be competitive with those guys back in the fold.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Chiefs WR Speed Becomes A Threat
Kansas City has two of the fastest receivers in the NFL in rookie Xavier Worthy and the return of Hollywood Brown. Brown isn’t going to play a ton of snaps as he’s worked his way back from a summer shoulder injury. CB Donte Jackson’s speed is important to counter and the Chiefs aren’t hitting a lot of long balls but still, these guys have homerun ability written all over them. They can’t score in a hurry.
2. Offense Can’t Get Into Groove
Offense hasn’t been able to sustain drives the last two losses. Mainly because of a lack of success on third down. Even against the Baltimore Ravens where the offense was better than their Philadelphia Eagles showing, the run game didn’t have volume and couldn’t take control of the game because Pittsburgh kept punting. They need to show ball control and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. Better first down play – they’re last in the NFL – and better success on third down are key.
3. Secondary Gets Got
Worry here with some young guys in there even as Elliott returns. CB Cory Trice and/or James Pierre figure to play a lot with Porter out. Pierre isn’t young but his issues have always been above-the-neck, prone to mental errors and mistakes. Trice is a guy you know offenses will pick on. And NCB Beanie Bishop Jr. is in the slot.
Concern is the Chiefs’ scheme and vets like Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid will make these guys make mental mistake and let receivers run free. These corners will be stressed and they must hold up.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
Chiefs: 21
Season Prediction Record
7-8
It’s Christmas. Be kind to me.
