As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 13 game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pat Freiermuth Has A Big Game (Like Last Season)
TE Pat Freiermuth has posted modest numbers this season and has yet to have a statement game this season. He hasn’t cleared 60 yards in any of the team’s first 11 games. Perhaps the offense can turn back the clock to last year’s meeting, the first post-Matt Canada firing. One where he went off for 120 yards in a career game and one of the best by a Steelers’ tight end in recent memory.
Replicating that game plan wouldn’t be a bad idea. The Bengals have struggled against tight ends this season and LB Logan Wilson is dealing with a knee injury, though I’d expect him to play. With teams playing more Cover 2 to take away the deep ball outside the numbers, the middle of the field will open. It’s one reason why WR Calvin Austin III had his big game in the loss to the Cleveland Browns. Two-high looks that opened that real estate.
2. Run Game Finds The Middle
Especially if the Bengals play a lot of the two-high coverage we mentioned above. Pittsburgh has to be able to run against it. They weren’t strong enough last week in scheme or execution. Cincinnati can be attacked up the middle and have a poor run defense, consistently giving up chunks of yardage even if they’ve kept a lid on disallowing the chunk runs.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. They need the space from the o-line to hit the second level, create success on first down, control the clock, and keep the Bengals’ offense off the field. Running on Cincinnati’s 5-2 early-down front will be key, an area where Pittsburgh has struggled.
3. They Close Out The Final Five Minutes
What does Pittsburgh (generally) do well? Close out games. Where do the Bengals (generally) struggle? Closing out games. The Steelers have their exceptions, Week 12 the most recent and obvious example, but they’re 5-3 in one-score games this year. The Bengals are just 1-6 in such games this year. Cincinnati finds ways to bungle losses while Pittsburgh captures the final few minutes and makes the “gotta have it” play late. That works in their favor in this one.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Tee Higgins Bodies Donte Jackson
Handling Ja’Marr Chase is difficult and obvious enough. CB Joey Porter Jr. and the rest of this defense (it won’t be a one-man job) have their hands full. But that attention and storyline has made the B-side less-discussed. Higgins is a capable receiver and will probably be a No. 1 wideout for some other team next season. Health has been an issue but when on the field, he’s been productive. In fact, his numbers on a per-game basis aren’t far off.
Ja’Marr Chase 2024 Per-Game Stats: 6.6/96/1.1
Tee Higgins 2024 Per-Game Stats: 6.3/81.5/0.7
Chase’s numbers are better but they’re comparable numbers. Higgins has 10-plus targets in half the games he has been active for this season. Point is, he’s a more-than-viable threat in this offense. Facing the undersized and regressing Donte Jackson is a matchup Cincinnati will try to exploit. This isn’t a guarantee Higgins has a big game but Jackson will need to meet the challenge just the way Porter will on the other side.
2. Pittsburgh Can’t Win The Shootout
Cincinnati’s 4-7 because of their defense, not their offense. They can score 30-plus just as easily as they give them up. Under Russell Wilson, the Steelers can put up big points too but they’re not as proven or consistent. If this becomes tit-for-tat for offenses, that’s the Bengals style and boosts their odds of victory.
3. Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson’s Impacted Isn’t Negated
After struggling with Myles Garrett last week, the o-line can redeem itself against DE Trey Hendrickson. He isn’t quite to that caliber but Hendrickson has quietly led the league in sacks through the first 12 weeks. He is their primary and often, only, source of pass rush production. Hendrickson is responsible for 60-percent of the team’s sacks and nearly 40-percent of their pressures. Better chips, more slides, and a better quick-game plan are all key.
Pittsburgh also needs better and quicker personnel and substitution procedures that have bitten them too often on the road, another concern in this contest.
Prediction
Bengals: 25
Steelers: 20
Season Prediction Record
5-6
