The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 10-5, a heartbreaking loss that unraveled in the fourth quarter against the also 10-5 Ravens. They had a chance to claim the AFC North crown. Instead, it will come down to the wire.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work, which helped me learn much about what I’m using in the visual series. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. A whopping six throwaways and a spike were removed.
QB Russell Wilson went 22/33 on the stat sheet (66.7-percent) but a much better 84.6 on charted passes on just four incompletions. His mistakes were detrimental, including a pick-six interception early in the fourth quarter. He also had what appeared to be a nice 19-yard scramble to the red zone in the second quarter but did too much trying to get in the end zone, taking a hit on a fumble turnover that was a potential 14-point swing.
It is so unfortunate, dampening an otherwise good performance in many rights. This included two red zone passing TDs for a 100-percent rate, an issue for this team on the season (ranked 30th pre-Monday Night Football). Faced a lot of pressure, tied for the most of 2024 (17). Eluded well overall, but was sacked three times. He had two big-time throws, but a lack of it late game was infuriating.
Both teams went 4-of-10 on all third downs, virtually a top-ten rate per season average. The costly money down was an unfortunate 4th and 6. Low percentage deep heave downfield, incomplete turnover on downs fail, and no points to start the fourth quarter when things derailed. The bad was horrendous.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 26 charted passes, with the number of throws at each pass distance for Week 16:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 46.2-percent. Whopping 12 passes. On drive two, Pittsburgh faced a 2nd and 20 following a sack (T Broderick Jones). Wilson took the wide-open dump off to RB Jaylen Warren, who had room to roam for YAC and a 13-yard pickup to make things more manageable.
Wilson was on the run again on the same drive, finding TE Connor Heyward late on his out route on the sideline at three air yards for the 2nd and 1 chain mover. Two plays, particularly the former, on the eventual TD drive.
After a throwaway (had time), it’s 2nd and 10 on drive four. WR Mike Williams ran a crosser and sat over the middle at five air yards, tackled quickly. But a third-down sack followed on this three-and-out fail. Second of the game, the other yet another opening drive, three-and-out, after the fumble turnover drive for the slow-starting Steelers.
Next drive 2nd and 5 before halftime. Wilson goes back to Williams on a stop route at four air yards, with a bit of space, and is able to get just enough for the first down. It’s nice to see him more involved, finally. The next play was a slot out to WR Calvin Austin, who was tackled quickly for six yards. Then, another throwaway. Following 3rd and 4 was a nice 3-by-1 with a rub for TE Pat Freiermuth’s out route, making a good contested catch for the five-yard conversion.
The last charted pass of the drive was to Warren in the flat, wide-open at two air yards, and a nice cut for YAC and 13 yards. Missed facemask call to boot, which could have changed the complexion after settling for the field goal and 17-10 deficit into the locker room.
In the late third quarter, a 2nd and 10 was back to a Williams crosser, wide-open at five air yards with YAC to gain 13 for a first down. A throwaway followed, and while the O-line could have played better, this was an example of being antsy and running towards pressure.
Last play of the period, 3rd and 7. There was yet more pressure (T Broderick Jones on the ground), Wilson getting the dump to Warren at the line, and the quick hit jarred the ball loose for a fumble. Thankfully, he was able to fall right back on it.
Fourth quarter unfortunately was the pick-six. The play-action boot right to hit the TE (MyCole Pruitt) in the flat has been run to death, and teams are all over it. Baltimore was in the Week 11 matchup, too, and continuing to call it often finally came back to bite them. Covered well, thrown terribly behind and late, undercut for the house call. The chip by the TE is also ineffective, getting QB hits too often to boot.
Gut-wrenching after S Minkah Fitzpatrick’s first interception in a rollercoaster back-and-forth sequence down 24-17. Nail in the coffin.
Next drive, down 31-17, 12:43 left. TE Pat Freiermuth catches the stop route and is tackled quickly for four yards. Couple plays later, it’s 3rd and 4. Wilson invited pressure but was able to dance around it well and get the leak out to Warren (one air yard), a valiant churn for five yards to convert. But the highs and lows continued with another sack, with Jones allowing a sack and false start on consecutive plays. Not clean enough for playoff-bound ball.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: 38.5-percent. Ten examples, six yet to be mentioned.
First, it was a nice response after a three-and-out opening drive. Wilson started drive two with a faked short route, then went vertical at ten yards to WR Ben Skowronek past the DB, with YAC for a good 17-yard gain. For two straight games, Skowronek provided the first chain mover; unfortunately, he exited the game early. Then, another Jones sack trying to lock onto a screen—yikes.
Same drive, 3rd and 7. Scramble drill rolling left (G Mason McCormick pressure), with Skowronek admirably making himself available on a comeback on the sideline for an eight-yard conversion. Great play. The same drive was capped off by a nice play-action with Wilson going over the vacated middle to Pruitt in the back of the end zone for the TD. Good 1st and goal call.
Early third quarter, it’s 2nd and 10. Wilson’s play-action rolls right looking downfield, then progresses to WR Van Jefferson on the crosser, which is well covered after being open earlier on the route. Throwaway-esque on the low/away throw. Next, 3rd and 10, a stop route on the run short of the sticks to Jefferson tackled quickly for six yards on the fail, where Freiermuth seemed open downfield. Three-and-out to start the second half, ugh.
The last example was the 2nd and 19 in the fourth quarter. Once again, Wilson takes a short-of-the-chains target in Freiermuth over the middle on a leak out and tackled quickly for only seven yards, with the following third and long failing. Punted on 4th and 12 down two possessions with 9:27 left, with the prior 4th and 6 fail and pick six also fresh in mind. The defense wasn’t playing well enough to make it a game—dire straits.
#3. Behind-the-Line: 11.5-percent. Three here. On drive three, Wilson play-actions and hits Warren on the dump-off, with a great inside cut and YAC for 12 yards on first down. They followed that encouraging start with a couple of good runs, but then the long Wilson scramble derailed an encouraging drive near the end zone. Home Alone scream GIF.
Late third quarter, it’s a play-action screen to RB Najee Harris, but he drops the accurate pass on his lone target, down 24-17. Too many unforced errors recently. 3rd and 11, down 14, ten minutes left. A WR screen to Austin is the call, and the defense is all over it for a loss of one. Several things had me screaming, a terribly conservative call that felt like living in your fears.
T-least. 10-15 air-yards: 7.7-percent. Two plays, one not mentioned yet. An encouraging 3rd and 6 was a great route and find to Austin over the middle at 14 air yards, making the catch for 16 yards to the red zone and setting up the third-quarter TD drive. Very nice.
T-least. 15-20 air-yards: 7.7-percent. Two passes. To end the first quarter, Wilson play-actioned and made an awesome throw to Jefferson on the post route, making the 18-air yard catch for the near TD on the 21-yard gain to the one-yard line. One of only two explosive plays all game and key in setting up Pruitt’s touchdown on the promising second drive.
The other was also successful, on 2nd and 11. From the shotgun, with RB Cordarrelle Patterson beside him, he ran a wheel route to the end zone, displaying strong hands on the lobbed throw over the defender. Fighting all the way to the ground to secure the contested catch for the 12-yard touchdown, he tied the game at 17 with 5:19 in the third quarter.
You have to take what the defense gives, and Baltimore deserves credit. While the intermediate success is encouraging, there was certainly more quantity to be had, man. Also, it re-emphasizes how catastrophic the fourth quarter was, largely a closer game throughout than the final score indicates.
T-least. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 7.7-percent. Just two here, flabbergasted. One was an aggressive start to the third quarter Patterson TD drive, a play-action to excellent back-shoulder bomb and contested toe tap Austin catch on the sideline for a double-explosive 44-yard gain. Wow play, encouragingly, and one of two big gainers Austin made on the Patterson TD drive. Beyond ten yards was great overall for Pittsburgh but not nearly enough to overcome the overflowing issues that occurred in this game.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
Just four incompletions seem encouraging. But a drop, fourth down incomplete deep shot, and pick six within that tell a different story than that picture. Moreover, the middle passing once again without Pickens, who optimistically looks set to return after missing three games.
Just in time for the Christmas Day challenge against the fantastic back-to-back Super Bowl champions and best 2024 record Chiefs. Huge boost, but not a savior, particularly if your team execution remains this poor. Kansas City is too good.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 11/12 (91.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 9/10 (90.0-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 2/2 (100-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 2/2 (100.0-percent).
Explosive: 1/2 (50.0-percent).
Excellent 90-plus completion rates except for behind-the-line (drop) and explosives (4th and 6 fail), but the one 0-5 yard incompletion was the costly pick-six.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 4/5 (80.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 5/5 (100-percent).
Inside hashes: 3/4 (75.0-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 8/8 (100.0-percent).
Outside right numbers: 2/4 (50.0-percent).
Really targeted between the numbers and hashes, where Wilson has his highest completion rates of 2024 and perfect in this game. He missed on the lone over-the-middle deep shot, but he was quite good overall over the middle. Low volume and missed outside the numbers sans Pickens.
Now for the heat maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
Very similar and concentrated charts to the middle of the field, with some intermediate sprinkled in. We’re also reminded of the deep over the middle 4th and 6 miss and the behind-the-line screen drop (Harris), which were the noticeable changes on the completions-only view.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 387 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 39.3-percent. Previously 38.8-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 25.6-percent. Previously 24.7-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: 16.0-percent. Previously 16.3-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#4. Explosive: 14.5-percent. Previously 15.0-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.3-percent. Previously 9.4-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 7.2-percent. Previously 7.2-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
Ranks in pass distances remained the same this week. The most substantial uptick was 5-10 yards (0.9 percent). The other increase was 0-5. Explosives were the biggest downtick (0.5-percent), odd in a game down substantially in the fourth quarter. Yes, the interception, and take what the defense gives you, but go for it with how much this game meant. It’s not like Pittsburgh’s defense was stopping much.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 37/42 (88.1-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 68/87 (78.2-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 40/57 (70.2-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 13/20 (65.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 12/19 (63.2-percent).
Explosive: 20/34 (58.8-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/21 (28.6-percent).
Fields was stronger at 0-10 air yards, while Wilson’s behind-the-line and past-ten-yard rates have been better. Wilson’s rates are particularly explosive, more than doubling Fields’. Wow. Wilson also improved every rate except behind the line (drop).
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 42/69 (60.9-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 47/53 (88.7-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/17 (64.7-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 44/50 (88.0-percent).
Outside right numbers: 31/46 (67.4-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 30/38 (78.9-percent).
Outside right numbers: 22/34 (64.7-percent).
Wilson has stellar rates between the numbers and hashes, 88-percent or more on both sides, which improved once again, wow. Outside the right numbers has been better than the more frequent other side, and inside the hashes the only other spot where Fields was better.
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
