With the Pittsburgh Steelers’ loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, their chances of securing the AFC’s top playoff seed are virtually extinguished. Because not only did the Steelers lose, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills won. With three games left to play, they are three games behind the Chiefs for the top spot. They are also a game behind the Bills with unfavorable tiebreakers against them.
In order for the Steelers to secure the No. 1 seed, they would have to win out, the Chiefs would have to lose out, and the Bills would have to lose one game. All of their remaining games are division games, so it doesn’t matter which. Because the Steelers have two non-conference losses, they would end up with a better conference record than the Bills. And their head-to-head win over the Chiefs would put them past Kansas City.
But the Bills play the Patriots twice and the Jets once, and they don’t appear likely to lose any of those games. The Chiefs have the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos remaining. While those are all likely playoff teams, the odds of them losing all three are very low. The Chiefs play the Steelers and Broncos on the road.
The Chiefs only need to win two of their final three games to secure the No. 1 seed while the Bills would have to win out and have the Chiefs lose twice. Kansas City still has just one loss on the season while Buffalo has three. With the Steelers now sitting at four losses, their margin for error is gone.
Of course, with the Chiefs finding new ways to win weekly, the Steelers’ hopes of achieving the top seed were always low. Only the No. 1 seed receives a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
For a Steelers team riding a long playoff drought, such conditions would have certainly been desirable. But they can secure their first home playoff game since 2020 if they beat the Ravens on Saturday. By doing so, they would win the AFC North and would then host a game on Wild Card weekend.
While the Steelers have already qualified for the postseason four times in the past five years, this would only be their second as a division winner in that span. Their last division title before 2020 was in 2017.
If the Steelers had beaten the Eagles, they would obviously be in better position. They would have the same number of losses as the Bills and the same number of conference losses. After that, the Steelers would have had the advantage in record against common opponents.
And the Steelers would still have played the Chiefs and had control over that. They would have only needed Kansas City then to lose to the Texans or Broncos while winning out to pass them by virtue of the head-to-head win. But they lost to the Eagles, so it’s all a moot point. And their quest for the No. 1 seed very nearly is as well.
