While the Pittsburgh Steelers still don’t know exactly what seed they’ll be or who they’ll play come Wild Card weekend, they gained a little more clarity following Saturday’s slate of AFC games. With the Los Angeles Chargers beating the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals beating the Denver Broncos in a bonkers overtime game, the Steelers’ playoff math heading into Week 18 is more crystalized.
Because of the Broncos’ loss, Pittsburgh can’t be the No. 7 seed. That would’ve only happened had the Steelers lost to the Bengals next weekend while the Chargers and Broncos won their respective finales.
Meaning, so long as the Bills remain the two-seed, Pittsburgh will not travel to play Buffalo in the Wild Card round, avoiding a rematch of last year’s playoff matchup that saw the Steelers quickly exit. Pittsburgh can only be the No. 3, No. 5, or No. 6 seed. The Houston Texans are cemented at the No. 4 seed, who will play the 5-seed.
For Pittsburgh to be the 3-seed, they’ll need to defeat Cincinnati and have the Baltimore Ravens drop their finale to the Cleveland Browns. If Pittsburgh and Baltimore win, the Steelers will be the No. 5 seed. If Pittsburgh loses or ties Cincinnati and the Chargers fall in Week 18 to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Steelers will keep the 5-seed. And if Pittsburgh loses and the Chargers tie or win, the Steelers will drop down to the No. 6 seed.
With their win, the Bengals keep playoff hopes alive and everything to play for against the Steelers next weekend. Any idea of sitting key starters like pending free agent WR Tee Higgins is out the window unless the schedule somehow has Cincinnati knowing their fate after the Denver game (something the NFL generally avoids). The Bengals will need to win and have the Broncos lose to storm back and punch their ticket into the Wild Card round. They could be without starting RB Chase Brown in that mission, injuring his ankle late in today’s win.
It makes for an exciting Week 18 finale. One more interesting and uncertain than Pittsburgh was seemingly facing two weeks ago. But unlike 2023, the Steelers know heading into the final week they will be in the playoffs. They’ll just have to wait to figure out where they’ll slot and who they’ll take on.
