The Pittsburgh Steelers have a greater than 99-percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs at this point. Both the New York Times and ESPN Football Power Index show that to be true. It’s not a question of if they get in, but rather where. But in order to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye, the Steelers are going to need a lot of things to go their way.
The New York Times playoff simulator shows a five-percent chance of the Steelers securing the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye and a 65-percent chance of winning the division.
For that to happen, the Steelers would most likely need to win out. But just taking care of their own business won’t be enough. They would need the 12-1 Kansas City Chiefs to lose one of their other non-Steelers games and even then, the Buffalo Bills would come into play.
Both the Steelers and Bills have the same record, but the Bills have a very easy schedule coming up. That makes things more difficult for the Steelers to stay ahead of them in the win-loss column, but in the event they both win out or end up with a tied record, it could help them out in a big way. The most likely outcome would be both having the same conference record, which would then shift the tiebreaker to strength of victory.
While the Bills currently have strength of victories (SOV) in their favor, they play the Patriots twice and the Jets once to round out the last three weeks of their season. There are over 100 outcomes that could swing the SOV in the Bills’ favor, but at their current pace the Steelers would likely edge them out in the tiebreaker.
The NYT, which simulated over 320,000 scenarios, gives all of that a five-percent chance of happening. If you remember back to last year, the Steelers had quite low chances of making the playoffs through that same simulator and ended up qualifying with a three-game win streak and some other outside help. Crazier things have happened.
On the plus side, NYT gives the Steelers a 65-percent chance of hosting a Wild Card game, meaning a 65-percent chance of winning the AFC North. The easiest path is beating the Ravens in Week 16. If they do that, they win the division.
If you refer to ESPN’s FPI, that is much higher at 79.6. Winning the division would more than likely mean at least the No. 3 seed, which would give the Steelers an outside chance of also hosting the divisional round if an upset occurs in the Wild Card round.
