Third downs are obviously a crucial element of successful offenses. The Pittsburgh Steelers have fared well overall, ranking 12th in the NFL in converting third downs in all situations. Issues creep up at times though, like early in Week 14 game against the Cleveland Browns.
Pittsburgh’s offense started 0-for-5 on third down, including four three and outs. Today, I wanted to look at that element of play in 2024, and see how the Steelers have fared in comparison to the rest of the NFL.
First, here are total success rates on three and out drives this season (kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
Here we see Pittsburgh’s offense ranks ninth league-wide on the season, with a 13.5 success rate on three and out drives. For context, the best rate is the fantastic third down offense in the Kansas City Chiefs at 17.1-percent. Extremely tough challenge on Pittsburgh’s schedule in Week 17.
The beginning of the Cleveland game was painful to watch through Steelers lenses, but the Browns have suffered that more with rank dead-last on the season. A miniscule bump up at 31st is Pittsburgh’s next opponent in Philadelphia. So, things have gone poorly overall for them on three and out drives, while Pittsburgh’s offense has had success despite these drives ending abruptly.
This leads to some optimism, seeing a potential that things could improve in Week 15 and beyond if they can capitalize on these third downs.
Let’s add some situational context by down:
- 1st Down 3-And-Out Success Rates = six yards, or >= 40-percent of the needed yardage.
- 2nd Down 3-And-Out Success Rates = six yards, or >= 50-percent of the needed yardage.
In undesirable three and out situations, the success rates by down reveal important context. Pittsburgh has a 31.1-percent first down success rate that ranks well at 11th. Lands slightly above the mean due to the Atlanta Falcons “breaking” the chart with a whopping 52.2 first down success rate, and second-best Chiefs landing just under 40-percent. Wow.
The Steelers result was surprising to learn, considering Pittsburgh ties for the absolute worst 35.8 success rate on all first downs in the NFL. Shockingly, that hasn’t been the case on three and out drives.
Second down has been right at average, with a 23.3-percent success rate that ranks 16th. So, the overall issue for the Steelers on three and out drives has been progressively worse results on each increasing down.
It’s also interesting to see where remaining opponents are strong – KC (both downs), CIN (second down), and the Eagles substantial struggles in each.
I was also curious to look at game half results, so here is a chart of three and out success rates by half this season (second half includes overtime):
The visual illustrates Week 14’s rough start with four three and out drives was an outlier overall. In 2024, first halves have been the better mark, with a 16.5-percent success rate that ranks fifth. Another surprisingly strong result in first halves on less than ideal three and out drives, considering slow start struggles overall for Pittsburgh, an issue for quite some time.
Atlanta breaks the chart again in first halves, at an impressive 33.3-percent success rate, compared to the second place Titans at 19.1 percent, and the Browns are the Browns at dead-last (6.8).
Even though the Steelers overall offense tends to step up in second halves overall, their three and out drives spiral out of control in comparison. That rank drops all the way down to 27th after halftime, at an 8.7-percent success rate.
That’s where the Chiefs step up, with a league-best 18.1 success rate, playing well overall even when the drives ultimately fizzle out. Pittsburgh’s next opponent, Philadelphia, lands on the other end of the spectrum. The absolute-worst success rate (5-percent) on second half three and out drives, compared to the Steelers at 27th. Could be a big factor in the Week 15 outcome.
Adding to the Steelers pain is faltering on second down after halftime, with a lowly 5.9-percent success rate on three and out drives in second halves that ranks 30th, compared to 20th on first downs. Cleaning this up should be highest on the radar of hopeful improvements the rest of 2024.
The next visual gives context to the totality of three and out plays this year. The bar is total plays on three and out drives, orange square is first down successes, red square equals second down successes, and the dots are total successful plays on three and out drives:
Lots of telling info. For starters, The Steelers have the 13th-most three and out attempts in the NFL at 178, compared to Denver’s league-leading 214, and the Falcons least at 94 (the only team under 100). The remaining teams on Pittsburgh’s schedule have the edge in avoiding three and outs more: KC (129, T-7th), BAL (130, 9th), CIN (138, 11th), and PHI (145, 14th).
The squares show quantity of successful plays. 14 first down successes are fifth-most, while ten second down plays ties for sixth. But, avoiding the situation is the ultimate goal, so seeing the high total numbers re-emphasizes that issue needs resolving.
The circles remind us of Pittsburgh’s strong ninth ranked total success rate. So, a silver lining is that all plays on three and out drives haven’t been catastrophic, but a crescendo of issues on a down and half basis.
There’s definitely room for improvement in terms of quantity and avoiding short drives compared to the rest of the NFL as well. This would certainly aid Pittsburgh’s efforts in keeping up with all of the strong opposing offenses they’re set to face. Hopefully that’s the case the last four games of 2024.
I hope you enjoyed gaining the clarity on the primary issues on three and out drives for Pittsburgh’s offense as much as I did, and hopefully we see improvements in the key areas that will help them extend even more drives to close 2024.
Here’s a table of the data to wrap a bow on it all:
