With Week 13 in the books, I wanted to provide a favorite stat at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). ANY/A is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked).
First, here is a visual for passing offenses (OANY/A) and defenses (DANY/A):
The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to land above the mean on both offense and defense, thankfully aiding their strong 9-3 record. Their 6.6 OANY/A ties for 11th, and a 5.3 DANY/A ties for eighth. Great to be one of the eight teams above the mean, among some of the best
in the NFL in this very important stat on both sides of the ball.
Comparatively, the last time I looked at ANY/A Stats Week 10: OANY/A (6.7, 12th), DANY/A (5.1, T-eighth). So, offense improved slightly by one rank, and a bit of a dip on defense but holding the same rank.
Next up for Pittsburgh is looking to rectify a loss in the Cleveland rematch (3-9). Their 5.2 OANY/A ranks 29th, and 7.2 DANY/A is next to last at 31st. Points to the disappointment of Pittsburgh dropping that recent Week 12 game, and why they should (on paper) come out on top Week 14.
Any given Sunday though, especially in the AFC North, but are likely pissed and motivated to right the ship that felt oh so wrong last go round.
Four other upcoming opponents: Philadelphia (6.7 OANY/A-T-ninth, 4.9 DANY/A-T-first), Baltimore (7.9 OANY/A-first, 6.8 DANY/A-T-24th), Kansas City (6.0 OANY/A-T-19th, 6.5 DANY/A-T-19th), and Cincinnati (6.7 OANY/A-T-ninth, 7.0 DANY/A-T-28th).
We can clearly see the offenses are the stronger units across the board, and present tough tasks for Pittsburgh’s defense to try and stymie. All top ten offenses except for the Chiefs, but we know what they’re capable of as two time defending Super Bowl Champs, and rare outliers of this stat that’s parameters have predicted every Super Bowl winner since 2000.
The Steelers also face teams that top ANY/A on a side of the ball. The Ravens 7.9 OANY/A still ranks first in the NFL, but has come down to earth from 9.8, after their last three games against the Steelers, Chargers, and Eagles. All three defenses are top ten DANY/A units, which adds context to Baltimore’s offensive dip, and brings optimism for Pittsburgh to sweep the season series with one win already etched to their name.
Philadelphia ties for the best defensive unit, and are top ten on both sides of the ball. Very challenging Week 15 proposition, and adds some context to the great football they’re playing.
So, the upcoming Steelers challenges pose more offensive threats that Pittsburgh’s top-ten defense is ready to stifle, while the offense seemingly will have an easier path on paper overall sans Philadelphia.
Let’s look at the weekly results for offenses by quarterback:
Steelers QB Russell Wilson has provided an overall spark to the pass game, including two stellar 10-plus OANY/A outings in his debut (Week Seven) and last game against the Bengals. This was his best mark of 2024, posting a 10.63 number that was third-best of Week 13, and 30th out of 392 qualifying performances this season (min, 15 attempts per game). Very impressive AFC North showing.
He was also clearly above average (blue line, ideal 6.5 OANY/A) in two other outings, Week 8 against the Giants, and Week 12 versus Cleveland. The latter was their only loss under Wilson that featured an above the line OANY/A. Hopefully that reoccurs, and capitalizing more consistent in other areas in hopes of victory.
There was also a downtrend with Wilson, as the team thankfully kept winning despite being below the line in OANY/A against the Commanders and Ravens. Baltimore is up again in Week 16, and would bode well to beat them again if Pittsburgh’s offense can keep some recent ANY/A momentum going. The Ravens defense did hold Wilson and company to their lowest 3.4 OANY/A of 2024 though, so this will be high on my radar.
Things have been much better overall though, with just one above the line performance from Fields, compared to Wilson’s four that all topped that mark.
Here are Pittsburgh’s numbers by week:
Fields Week One: 5.32.
Fields Week Two: 5.91.
Fields Week Three: 6.09.
Fields Week Four: 7.95.
Fields Week Five: 5.17.
Fields Week Six: 4.07.
Wilson Week Seven: 10.0.
Wilson Week Eight: 8.72
BYE
Wilson Week Ten: 6.03.
Wilson Week 11: 3.4.
Wilson Week 12: 8.38.
Wilson Week 13: 10.63
Hopefully the stellar record-breaking game from Wilson is a sign of more to come, leading the passing game and the Steelers to a strong end to 2024, and playoff success.
Next, here is a visual of weekly ANY/A for NFL defenses:
For starters, when Pittsburgh’s defense limits opposing offenses to less than 6.0 DANY/A (blue line, lower numbers are best), they have a 7-0 record. When they don’t, that record drops to 2-3 including all of their losses. Re-emphasizes the importance of the stat, and see specific evidence to how impactful it is for success in the Steel City.
The strength of competition in their above average performances isn’t the scariest, including their best mark in the opener against QB Kirk Cousins, shaking of rust from serious injury. That changed in their last two above the line performances, against Washington and Baltimore, two of the most potent offenses, especially going into those matchups. That is encouraging, knowing their potential against strong offenses.
We see the last two games have been a downtrend in DANY/A. The caveat is never straying too far from the line, but was a major factor against the Browns, who have been a poor offense on average. Looking for Pittsburgh’s defense to make a statement next game, including a much stronger DANY/A to aid a hopeful win.
We also get context to the high point total the Bengals offense was able to put up last week. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed a 7.07 DANY/A, their worst mark of 2024 against Joe Burrow and their potent offense. Thankfully Pittsburgh had more in store on offense (10.63), winning the shootout on the scoreboard, an encouraging fact that few thought Pittsburgh could achieve.
Down the stretch, finding more consistent balance on both sides of the ball should be the goal, and reasonable considering the abilities to do so have been on display. Namely, seeing the defense get back on the right side of things after a recent downtrend is extremely important, with that correlating directly to wins.
Steelers weekly DANY/A results, and stats breakdowns (TDS allowed are subjective):
Week One vs. ATL: 2.39. QB Kirk Cousins – 16/26 (61.5), 155 pass yards, 1 TD (CB Beanie Bishop Jr.), 2 INTS (CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott), 2 sacks (ED T.J. Watt, DL Cam Heyward, DL Montravius Adams), 18 sack yards.
Week Two vs. DEN: 3.81. QB Bo Nix – 20/35 (57.1), 246 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTS (CB Cory Trice Jr, S Damontae Kazee), 2 sacks (Watt, ED Alex Highsmith), 15 sack yards.
Week Three vs. LAC: 6.45. QB Justin Herbert (injured) – 12/18, 125 yards, 1 TD (S Minkah Fitzpatrick), 0 INTS, 2 sacks, 16 sack yards.
Week Four vs. IND: 6.93. QB Joe Flacco – 16/26 (61.5), 168 yards, 2 TDS (Bishop, CB Joey Porter Jr.), 0 INTS, 2 sacks (Heyward, DL Larry Ogunjobi), 14 sack yards.
Week Five vs. DAL: 6.5. QB Dak Prescott – 29/42 (69.0), 352 yards, 2 TDS (both S DeShon Elliott), 2INTS (Porter, Jackson), 2 sacks (Watt, ED Nick Herbig), 16 sack yards.
Week Six vs. LV: 4.71. QB Aidan O’Connell – 27/40 (67.5), 227 yards, 1 TD (Bishop), 1 INT (Jackson), 1 sack (Heyward), 9 sack yards.
Week Seven vs. NYJ: 4.98. QB Aaron Rodgers – 24/39 (61.5), 276 yards, 1 TD (Fitzpatrick), 2 INTS (both Bishop), 1 sack (Ogunjobi), 7 sack yards.
Week Eight vs. NYG: 4.57. QB Daniel Jones – 24/38 (63.2), 264 yards, 0 TDS, 1 INT (Bishop), 4 sacks (Watt, Highsmith), 27 sack yards.
Week Nine (BYE):
Week Ten vs. WAS: 4.92. QB Jayden Daniels – 17/34 (50.0), 202 yards, 0 TDS, 0 INTS, 3 sacks (Heyward two, Benton), 20 sack yards.
Week 11 vs. BAL: 5.14. QB Lamar Jackson – 16/33 (48.5), 207 yards, 1 TDS (Jackson), 1 INT (LB Payton Wilson), 2 sacks (Watt, DL Dean Lowry), 2 sack yards.
Week 12 vs. CLE: 6.21. QB Jameis Winston – 18/27 (66.7), 219 yards, 0 TDS, 1 INT (Jackson), 1 sack (Herbig), 0 sack yards.
Week 13 vs. CIN: 7.07. QB Joe Burrow – 28/38 (73.7), 309 yards, 3 TDs (CB Cameron Sutton two, Jackson), 1 INT (Jackson), 4 sacks (Watt two, Herbig, Heyward, Benton), 27 sack yards.
We definitely see some strengths and weaknesses in the last three games. Impacted Lamar Jackson to the lowest completion rate Pittsburgh’s allowed all season (48.5), quite impressive against the MVP candidate. And Payton Wilson’s interception, simply elite.
Winston had more success than expected in Week 12, but no passing touchdowns. Their ground game took care of that, though Cleveland moved the ball well overall. Pittsburgh’s defense better stop the run first and foremost, standing stouter in the red zone where they got three rushing scores that was enough for victory.
The Steelers defense allowed several worst marks in a while, or the entire season to the uber talented Burrow last game. Namely three passing TDs, the only such game for Pittsburgh in all of 2024. Sutton played his most snaps of 2024, but struggled and allowed two TDs. Took substantial snaps from Bishop, which will be interesting to monitor. That workload is high on my radar.
The defense tying for their highest sack total (four) in Week 13 was of course a highlight, including two strip sacks (Watt, Herbig), and Jackson INT for the second game in a row made for three takeaways, and Payton Wilson scooping one up for a forced fumble TD. Fantastic splash was huge to victory.
Some things to clean up, no doubt, but overall very encouraging to see Pittsburgh fare so well overall in the 2024 season on both sides of the ball.
To close, here’s a table of the 2024 ANY/A results, sorted by differential with the goal of showing the most balanced teams:
The Pittsburgh Steelers currently have a 1.3 ANY/A differential, down 0.3 the last three weeks, but hold the same eighth-rank since then. I can get used to this, a top ten unit compared to the Steelers offenses having them at the bottom of these ranks for several recent seasons. Icing on the cake is the recent shootout divisional win against the Bengals, with Wilson point guarding the historic performance in many ways.
Keeping that momentum going the rest of the way on offense, and the defense aiming to clamp opponents more than their recent stretch would bode extremely well to keep their business of winning rolling, and playoff positioning. Thankfully, Pittsburgh also is showing they can potentially make noise once there, which has been missed in the Steel City.
