Coming off a rough loss in Philadelphia, the Pittsburgh Steelers are prepping for their rematch against the Baltimore Ravens. With this, and two AFC North matchups remaining, I wanted to revisit important data points focusing on the division. First, the 2024 divisional regular season records through Week 15:
Pittsburgh has a one-game edge on their next opponent, as opposed to being tied with the Ravens in my last AFC North Data Points Through Week 10. Substantial edge on the rest of the division. Cincinnati is making up some ground, though, and the Browns are Browning.
Let’s dive into some data, with expected points added (EPA = expected points before and after each play) for the AFC North offenses (OEPA) by week:
Baltimore is clearly the best offense in the division and ranks second overall in EPA in totality in the NFL. While that is true, Pittsburgh and Baltimore matchups are a different, low-scoring animal. The Ravens lowest mark of 2024 was in the first contest against Pittsburgh, their only mark clearly below average in all of 2024. Wow.
That leads to optimism for the Steelers clinching the AFC North against them in Week 16, but it would be insane to assume that occurrence with what they’ve done in 2024. Several Ravens performances on offense top AFC North including last game, and a season-best 0.47 OEPA against Tampa Bay in Week 7, which ranks fourth in all of 2024.
In comparison, Pittsburgh has been all over the map, particularly since their bye week including an unfortunate two-game skid. The Steelers -0.28 OEPA against Philadelphia last game was their worst of 2024. The only other number that was close (-0.25) came Week 11 against Baltimore, re-emphasizing that these games buck seasonal stat trends in heated rivalries, and hopefully it transpires similarly for the season sweep.
Pittsburgh’s season finale is also in division, against the Bengals. They are a scary offense as well. More volatile early in the season, when they posted their best 0.37 OEPA Week 3, and worst in Week 7 (-0.19) against Cleveland’s defense. Cincinnati has been steadier their last six games, on a positive incline as they’ve improved their record. The exception was their Week 13 loss against Pittsburgh (0.0).
Cleveland, whoof. Only five positive OEPA numbers, and most were barely above zero. Best was 0.18 in Week 8 during their win against Baltimore, and includes the Week 12 win on Pittsburgh (0.01). The rematch went Pittsburgh’s way, when the Browns had a minus-0.16 OEPA. Last game was clearly their worst of 2024, a -0.52 OEPA that is third worst in football, against the two-time reigning champs in Kansas City.
That team is the out of division opponent left on Pittsburgh’s schedule, a daunting task on a short week following the Ravens. Hopefully Pittsburgh fares much better against the best team in football (13-1).
Here are defensive EPA results (DEPA):
Up and down results for every AFC North team. Baltimore’s defense has been playing better as of late, after mostly below the line marks in their first 10 games. Their best -0.25 DEPA came against in Week 11 against Pittsburgh, so another example of how the familiarity in the division bucking overall season trends. The Ravens are also coming off a -0.23 last game, pointing to some recent improvements Pittsburgh are set to face.
The Steelers defense posted their best marks the first six weeks of 2024, including the opener being their best -0.35 DEPA, the best mark of any AFC North defense this season and 23rd out of 448 games this season. Less elite since the Week 9 bye, and Week 15 against Philly was a team worst 0.2 DEPA. Discouraging against a playoff team that Pittsburgh is prepping to play. The rest of the year, including much higher marks since the bye against some tough teams is room for optimism the final three games.
Cincinnati has had some of the worst defensive marks in the NFL, as – 0.52 DEPA in Week 3 was second-worst defensive outing of 2024. The Bengals have had five outings below 0.25, yikes. Included in that was Week 13 (0.28 DEPA) against Pittsburgh, when the Steelers won the 44-38 shoot out. It will be interesting to see if the finale rematch is meaningful, and if so, the Steelers hopefully ending the season with a strong outing on offense.
Cleveland is definitely not as strong as last season. Even split of seven above and below the line defensive outings. Their best of 2024 was -0.19 DEPA was Week 7 against Cincinnati, and worst 0.31 came Week 11. Comparatively, above the line in both Pittsburgh matchups (-0.04, -0.12), with their better mark coming in the Steelers revenge win.
Next, success rates for NFL offenses and defenses from nflfastR for league-wide and season average context, which is defined as EPA > 0 for each play:
Baltimore is the only above the mean team on both sides of the ball. They’re the NFL’s best 49.7 offensive success illustrates their scary abilities, along with a sixth ranked 40.7 defensive success rate. Pittsburgh’s marks are stale in comparison, with a 13th rank on defense (43.2), and particularly 23rd rank on offense (40.8). Concerning, even though both offenses were limited first go round, and Pittsburgh’s recent struggles Week 15.
We know Cincinnati’s offense is their strength, and the success stat really paints the picture of their 2024 season, as 46.0 offensive success racks 12th, but their suspect 47.7 defensive success lands 30th. Cleveland’s on the other end of the spectrum: 40.2 defensive success (fifth) and dead-last 38.0 offensive success.
Now for a points view of offenses and defenses:
Pittsburgh is the only AFC North squad above the mean in each. Particularly, a sixth-ranked defense at 18.9 PPG, and a much-improved offense from 2023, tying for 10th at 24 PPG. Being top 10 in both is encouraging, but they need to get closer to season averages than their most recent 27-13 loss. Hopefully that starts against Baltimore on Saturday, who have 29.9 PPG on offense (third) and 23.7 PPG on defense (22nd).
The last Week 11 game was an 18-16 Pittsburgh victory, on six field goals from K Chris Boswell. Score more points Steelers.
Cincinnati lands similarly to the previous view, with 28.5 PPG on offense (fifth), but a second-worst 27.6 PPG on defense. Would love to see Pittsburgh limit their offense more in the rematch, closing the season with some optimism to do so in the postseason as opposed to their last Week 15 outing. Cleveland is the only divisional team below average in both: 17.1 offense (30th) and 25.4 defense (26th).
Another key stat is turnovers:
The Steelers lead the NFL with 30 turnovers on defense. It’s a key component to their team success and was a factor in the Ravens matchup with three takeaways. That was also true on offense, winning the turnover battle with only one offensive turnover. Pittsburgh typically wins the turnover battle, with 12 turnovers in 2024 (T-sixth).
It’s paramount in close divisional slugfests and hopefully reoccurs to get back in the win column enroute to an AFC North title.
The Ravens have just 10 offensive turnovers on the year (fourth), best of the four focused teams, and points to the impressing three the Pittsburgh defense created on them Week 11. Their defense is towards the bottom of the league with 12, tying for 25th. The Bengals better mark is on defense for the first time, with 20 takeaways (T-ninth), and just below average 18 giveaways (T-17th).
Simply bad for the Browns, who have 27 offensive giveaways (30th) and only 11 takeaways (T-28th), virtually a third of the Steelers. Wow.
Clearest Steelers’ advantage on paper, who tie for the best turnover differential in the NFL (18), compared to the rest of the North: Baltimore – 2 (T-13th), Cincinnati – 2 (T-13th), Cleveland – minus-16 (31st).
Here are teams’ explosive plays:
The entire division have been weak at allowing explosive plays on defense. Of that group, Pittsburgh has the slight edge. 51 explosives allowed on defense ties for 20th, right around average for most NFL teams to date. Here’s what the rest of the division looks like: Bengals – 53 (T-22nd), Ravens – 55 (25th), Browns 66 (31st).
Both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have trended poorly the last five games, after being well above average previously. The opposite is true for Baltimore, tying for last through Week 10, and quickly moving up much closer to league average. This, paired with their NFL best 69 offensive explosive plays could make it a difficult element for Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Steelers are second best in the division on offense, with 59 explosive offensive plays, ranking eighth league-wide. Just one explosive play against Philadelphia was a discouraging recent trend, and hopefully QB Russell Wilson and company fare better against a Baltimore defense that has made great strides in this regard.
Near the mean are the Bengals with 50 explosive plays on offense (17th). That has climbed a bit in recent weeks. While Cleveland is well below average, the same is also true. 31st in Week 10, now tied for 26th with 41 explosives on offense.
Now third down conversions:
Clear strengths on one side of the ball jump out for each AFC North team. The Ravens and Bengals have been great on offense: 48.7 (second) and 47.5 (fourth). Encouragingly, Pittsburgh’s strength has been on defense (35.1, seventh), and will need to be strong here against these two remaining opponents. Bucking a recent downtrend against Philly (58.8) would ease that painful offering.
Cleveland is also above average on defense (36.2), ranking ninth in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s lower mark is on offense, with a 38.9 3DCR, ranking 13th. This was another abysmal part of last game, including five three-and-outs to start the game, and going 30-percent in total. Can’t score if you don’t have the ball, and high on my radar on both sides of the ball the rest of the season and playoffs.
Optimistically, the offense will look better against two below average AFC North defenses: Baltimore – 41.3 (23rd). Cincinnati – 44.4 (T-27th).
Here’s red zone numbers:
The Steelers struggling red zone offense jumps out right away, with a 45.8 red zone TD rate that ranks a lowly 31st in the NFL. This of course limits their ceiling on the scoreboard, hopefully able to improve against average to below red zone defenses in the division the rest of the way: Ravens – 55.8 (16th). Bengals – 69.6 (31st). The Steelers have been the best red zone defense in division, but only a bit above league average: 53.2 (14th).
Baltimore has the NFL’s best red zone offense, with a 74.1 TD rate. That is a whopping 28.3-percent better than Pittsburgh, staggering. Again, the matchup always tends to be low scoring, but the bigger picture of the postseason illustrates an area the Steelers need to flip the script in a hurry if they want to stick around instead of a quick bouncing.
Cincinnati’s offense is comfortably above average once again: 68.1 (fourth). So, Pittsburgh’s remaining AFC North opponents are top five red zone scoring offenses. Cleveland lands near the mean: 57.1 offense (13th), 59.1 defense (19th).
And a favorite here at Steelers Depot, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), which gauges success of passing offenses and defenses:
Another encouraging balance for Pittsburgh, the only above the mean AFC North team in both. A 5.4 DANY/A is best divisionally, and ties for sixth in the NFL. While an 11th ranked 6.8 OANY/A is above average and solid, it’s third in the division.
It emphasizes the tough offenses the Steelers still have to face. Baltimore is the NFL’s best by far at 9.3, with the second ranked Bills over a full point less at 8.1. Cincinnati sits at 7.4, fifth-best. Once again, two top five OANY/A opponents in the division Pittsburgh’s defense has to deal with.
The flipside is the rest of the AFC North has been clearly below average on defense: Ravens – 6.6 (T-23rd), Bengals – 6.6 (T-23rd), Browns – 7.0 (T-28th). On paper, Pittsburgh should be able to end the year with some strides on offense, unlike Cleveland’s offense that ties for the NFL’s worst 4.3 OANY/A.
Here’s a ranks recap to close:
So, Pittsburgh does have the best-balanced marks in the AFC North, important factors in the Steelers topping the division. We can see their biggest weakness by far is red zone offense, discouragingly. Offensive success and defensive explosives have also trended poorly, particularly the latter.
The remaining Baltimore and Cincinnati games present scary challenges on offense, while the defenses have been less than comparatively. That’s encouraging to type after Pittsburgh’s worst offensive performance of 2024 against Philadelphia. Hopefully, the Steelers look much better as a launchpad to the playoffs.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
