As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 12 Thursday night game against the Cleveland Browns.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Jameis Winston Throws Some Classic-Winston INTs
Winston is a gunslinger. That sword cuts both ways. He’s brought energy and big-play ability that Deshaun Watson lacked, but he’s still reckless with the football and prone to making ill-advisable throws. Pittsburgh must make him pay. It would be a great chance for FS Minkah Fitzpatrick to get his first interception in nearly two years. But no matter who the name on the back of the jersey is, the Steelers should come away with a pick or two against the Browns. If they do that, it’ll be difficult to lose this game.
2. Jerome Ford Doesn’t Get Loose
Nick Chubb is back and I don’t want to discount him. He certainly wants to run all over the Steelers after getting hurt against them last season. But he simply doesn’t look like the same guy, losing the burst and wiggle he’s had in the past. Ford has been their best and most efficient runner with a far higher yards per carry and run success rate.
The Browns would like to get him out on the perimeter, and the Steelers will have to defend that. Remember, Ford had 106 yards and a 69-yard scamper in the early meeting last season.
3. Pittsburgh Creates Confusion
The Browns’ defense is talented but constantly deals with miscommunication and blowing coverages. This has been an issue even in past years when the defense was good, and it’s certainly been a problem this year when they’ve struggled. They allow big plays at a high rate, including a pair of 70-yard touchdowns in last week’s loss to the New Orleans Saints.
Using stacks, bunches, and switch/rub routes could stress the Browns’ defensive communication and create wide-open Steelers receivers for chunk plays and touchdowns.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Steelers O-Line Can’t Find, Pick Up Myles Garrett
Everyone knows Myles Garrett has to be slowed down, but the Steelers have to find him first. He normally plays RDE but will move around in obvious passing situations. Cleveland actively uses him for stunts and twists the Steelers will have to identify and react to.
LT Dan Moore Jr. is having a career season but will be tested against Garrett, who he has struggled with in past years. Hasn’t always been reflected in the box score but on tape.
2. Cleveland Gets Tricky
Something Dave Bryan and I discussed on Wednesday’s The Terrible podcast. The Browns have nothing to lose. This game means everything to them, the chance to upset and spoil the Steelers’ five-game winning streak. They’re at home, it’s a primetime game, and they’re on a short week where Pittsburgh didn’t get much time to practice or prepare.
So watch out for the Browns doing something funky against the Steelers. A fake punt. A flea flicker. Something to try and swing the game in their favor and get the crowd going. Expect that to happen early in the game, similar to the Dallas Cowboys attempting (a failed) fake punt against the Houston Texans Monday night.
3. Secondary Allows The Long Ball
Above, we wrote about Winston’s penchant for interceptions. But he can create big plays, too. Winston is pushing the ball downfield and distributing to a solid group of skill guys. One big play can change the game’s complexion, and Pittsburgh has given up its fair share of them in recent weeks. Watch out for the wake-up call of a big catch-and-run from one of the Browns’ receivers.
Prediction
Steelers: 17
Browns: 14
Season Prediction Record
5-5
