Entering the season, oddsmakers had the Pittsburgh Steelers at a line of 8.5 wins. Those who know the team knew it was easy money to hammer the over. Midway through the year, the 7-2 Steelers are nearly at that mark and atop the AFC North. In an updated record projection based off her statistical model, NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund projects the Steelers to finish with exactly 11 wins, giving them an 11-6 mark to close out 2024. Still, it’s not enough to win the division with Baltimore projected to finish ahead of them.
Per her model, Frelund pegs Pittsburgh to finish with a ceiling of 13.5 wins and floor of 9.5 victories. Despite having a slightly worse 7-3 record, Baltimore’s projections are more favorable. It has a similar ceiling of 13.9 wins but a much higher floor of 11.2 wins. An aggressive prediction given the fact the Ravens still have two games against the Steelers.
In this scenario, the Steelers would finish as the No. 5 seed in the AFC and take on the No. 4 seed on the road on Wild Card Weekend. Per the model, it would pit Pittsburgh against the Houston Texans for the chance to capture its first playoff win since 2016. The Steelers and Texans played last season, a blowout Houston victory, though Pittsburgh is a vastly different team since then.
Ultimately, the models clearly don’t mean much. Their preseason predictions are proof enough. During the summer, one betting expert said it would be “incredibly difficult” for Pittsburgh to reach nine wins. Another analyst predicted it would finish the year 6-11.
Even though the Steelers have been among the best AFC teams this season, the models still are awfully conservative and downplay their chances. A floor of nine wins means they’d have to go 2-6 the rest of the way, unlikely even given the difficult nature of their second-half schedule.
Pittsburgh has finished .500 or better in the AFC North every season since 2010, the league’s longest active streak. That alone gives the Steelers 10 wins if it holds. If they can split their non-divisional slate and beat the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs, they’ll finish with 11 victories. And, of course, if they can go above .500 in the AFC North, their record only improves from there. Using the eyeball and history test, 11 wins feel closer to the Steelers’ floor with 12-13 being the ceiling.
All that matters is the game ahead of the Steelers. It’s a doozy. A five-star matchup against the Baltimore Ravens that will dictate who gains control of the division. If Pittsburgh wins, it will be in strong position to capture the AFC North title, 8-2 with a win over the would-be 7-4 Ravens. If Baltimore comes out on top, it will hold the edge until the two sides meet again in Week 16.
