Though the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-0 under QB Russell Wilson and technically control their destiny for the AFC’s top spot, one analyst thinks they’ve gotten plenty of lucky breaks. In fact, former PFF data scientist Kevin Cole believes the Steelers should’ve lost to the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders, and yes, even the New York Jets despite beating them by 22.
Cole issues “adjusted scores,” which calculate advanced metrics from each game and produce what the outcome “should” have been. Per his Substack, here’s how he explains it.
“The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points.”
With that said, Cole thinks the Steelers are on the “luckier” side with Russell Wilson.
A thought that won’t sit well with Steelers’ fans (which is evident in the replies to his tweet). Pittsburgh’s defense has done a great job subduing two potent offenses in the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens, keeping talented and athletic quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson in check. Jackson’s struggles against the Steelers continue. In seven games against Pittsburgh, he’s completing 57 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and eight interceptions without a rushing touchdown. For comparison’s sake, his QB rating against the Steelers (66.7) is far worse than fellow divisional opponents the Cleveland Browns (97.4) and Cincinnati Bengals (104.5).
There’s no question Pittsburgh played two tight games against Washington and Baltimore. The outcome could’ve gone either way. But the Steelers made the weighty plays in the final five minutes. Wilson hit WR Mike Williams for the game-winning score on a great throw and catch, while NT Keeanu Benton had a key open-field tackle of Daniels on the following drive. Pittsburgh closed out the game versus Baltimore, stopping the game-tying two-point conversion while picking up the final first down to secure victory.
The idea that the metrics indicated Pittsburgh “should” have lost to New York is where many will cry foul. The Jets had success early but were dominated in the second half.
Russell Wilson didn’t play well against the Ravens but has taken this offense to the next level and has been key in why the Steelers are viewed as a top AFC contender. He’s been a difference-maker, and the Steelers’ success hasn’t been luck. It’s been execution, regardless of what the analytics say.
