Today, I wanted to look and provide turnover and explosive play data (TOX) through the 2024 season so far. The TOX stat takes turnovers and explosive plays for offenses and defenses, and creates a differential for each, which is very valuable historically to winning.
First, here are explosive plays for offenses and defenses through Week 11:
The Pittsburgh Steelers land in the top middle of the chart, faring better on defense so far in 2024. They’ve allowed 33 explosive plays, which ties for eighth best through Week 11, and on the rise since Week Five.
That is solid, but a couple of upcoming opponents have been even better. 25 for Philadelphia (first) and Kansas City’s 26 (second). That will be extremely challenging for Pittsburgh’s offense.
The group has improved with QB Russell Wilson, and are now near the mean with 37 explosive plays (18th), compared to tying for 23rd through Week Five. So, both groups are improving, which will hopefully continue the rest of 2024.
Here are remaining opponents ranks on both sides of the ball:
Cleveland (twice): OFF (T-27th), DEF (29th).
Cincinnati (twice): OFF (T-15th), DEF (T-16th).
Philadelphia: OFF (T-fourth), DEF (first).
Baltimore: OFF (first), DEF (30th).
Kansas City: OFF (T-24th), DEF (second).
The Eagles are the best-balanced to date, with top five ranks on both sides of the ball, an extreme challenge looming in Week 15. Pittsburgh’s fresh off the rivalry Ravens win, who have been volatile. NFL’s best offense at 54, only team above 50 and six more than anyone else, but third worst on defense.
They won the explosive play battle five-to-three, the latter bucking their trend on defensive “struggles”. They typically have been ahead which skews the stats, but we all know that’s not how things go down in these AFC North matchups typically. Great for HC Mike Tomlin’s track record in close games and this rivalry, hopefully reoccurring for a series sweep Week 16.
Kansas City is one of the most challenging teams, including offense, but are a below average explosive play offense. That may surprise some, but never underestimate the wits and skill at HC and QB that’ll dice you up in a hurry. Pittsburgh faces that tough task in Week 17.
Two games each against Cleveland and Cincinnati left, including the next three games starting with the Browns on Thursday Night Football. They land towards the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball, while the Bengals are more average, slightly better on offense.
Hoping that Pittsburgh can flourish in these terms in the AFC North, and against some tough teams the rest of 2024.
Next up, here are turnovers and takeaways:
Pittsburgh is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, comfortably above the mean on both offense and defense, and on the rise in each since my last article I linked earlier. Eight turnovers on offense and 19 takeaways on defense each tie for fourth-best through Week 11, encouragingly.
This has played a major role in the Steelers great 8-2 record, including their most recent victory against the Ravens. Two fumble turnovers, which I anticipated in my outlook before the matchup, along with an interception, while Wilson threw a pick led to hold a 3-1 advantage in the turnover battle.
The Steelers have thrown only three interceptions in 2024, but one in each of the last two games. Hoping Wilson can clean up this recent uptick, while continuing to improve explosive play numbers.
With no remaining opponent comfortably above average on defense, I’m hopeful for just that. Let’s look at those ranks:
Cleveland (twice): OFF (T-14th), DEF (T-30th).
Cincinnati (twice): OFF (T-seventh), DEF (T-16th).
Philadelphia: OFF (T-ninth), DEF (T-12th).
Baltimore: OFF (sixth), DEF (T-16th).
Kansas City: OFF (T-21st), DEF (T-23rd).
As I alluded to, the low overall defensive ranks jump out. Particularly Cleveland, a good defense in several respects, ties for the second least takeaways in 2024. Factor in their 2-8 record, and hopeful reoccurrence as Pittsburgh faces them twice in their next three games.
The Chiefs are well below-average in each. The defending champs defy so many statistical odds, unlike any other team in sights of their third-straight Lombardi. They were just handed their first loss of 2024 by the Buffalo Bills, who have been comfortably above the mean in all these stats, including top-three ranks here. Pittsburgh would be wise to perform similarly in hopes of topping KC.
Of remaining Steelers opponents, Philadelphia has the best balance once again, with their stronger number as a top-ten offense. TOX is a big part of their success, currently with the same 8-2 record as Pittsburgh, and whoever wins out in these terms will likely seal victory.
The rest of the AFC North land on the bottom right, stronger on offense than defense. The Steelers defense hopefully change that narrative, as they did against Baltimore last game, in their four remaining matchups against Cleveland and Cincinnati. The Bengals are top ten, while the Browns are closer to average.
Like I said earlier, weaker defenses on the rest of Pittsburgh’s 2024 schedule hopefully play well into the offense continuing to take care of the football overall. Playing keep away from some potent offenses will be paramount, and more success than most against Baltimore’s attack last game.
Hopefully this is on display often the remainder of 2024, which would likely contribute to the strongest season record we’ve seen in Pittsburgh for quite some time.
Let’s see how the turnover and explosive play differentials shake out:
- Explosive Diff = Explosive plays (offense) – Explosive plays allowed (defense).
- Turnover Diff = Takeaways (defense) – Turnovers (offense).
Pittsburgh fares well as expected from the previous views, and among teams of interest on their schedule, thankfully.
Here are the numbers and ranks:
Pittsburgh: 4 EXP (13th), 11 TO (second).
Cleveland (twice): -23 EXP (last), -5 TO (T-23rd).
Cincinnati (twice): 2 EXP (T-15th), 1 TO (15th).
Philadelphia: 22 EXP (first), 2 TO (T-12th).
Baltimore: 2 EXP (T-15th), 2 TO (T-12th).
Kansas City: 3 EXP (14th), -5 TO (T-23rd).
In totality, the schedule fares better in differentials. Pittsburgh’s turnovers and Philadelphia’s explosive results most eye popping, with Baltimore and Cincinnati landing just above average in each. Cleveland is well below the mean in each, particularly dead last with a negative 23 explosive play differential. Ouch town for them, but hopefully plays well for Pittsburgh.
Now that we’ve broken down all the moving parts, here are the TOX differentials through Week 11 of the 2024 season to close:
- TOX Differential = Turnover + Explosive play differentials.
The Pittsburgh Steelers rank sixth with a 15 TOX differential through Week 11 of the 2024 season, encouraging overall. The defense is the primary reason, with top ten ranks across the board. Offensively, being top-five in turnovers is the highlight, and while explosives are improving, hopefully continuing against below average defenses in allowing them overall.
The scariest upcoming opponent overall are the Eagles (8-2), who tie for first with a whopping 24 TOX differential with Buffalo (9-2). Those records speak to the importance of the stat, and the challenge Pittsburgh is set to face Week 15.
Less so, but Baltimore and Cincinnati also have positive numbers, 4 and 3 respectively. We know how important those division matchups are, and the TOX component typically leading to the victor, most recently with the Steelers topping the Ravens Week 11.
Remaining opponents land in the negative differentials. The Chiefs defy stats like no other, with a minus-two number, but did prove human in their loss last week to the Bills, and TOX was a factor in that. Pittsburgh has to do that in hopes for the same IMO.
Next up is Cleveland, who are dead last in the NFL with a painful minus-28 TOX stat. On paper, this should lead to the Steelers getting the season sweep, but we know how these teams get up for divisional play. Their lowly two wins ties for least league-wide, and all four of those teams have a minus-15 TOX differential or worse.
If that doesn’t reiterate how important TOX is to success, not sure what will. Hopefully Pittsburgh dominates TOX the rest of 2024, starting Thursday Night against the struggling Browns.
