Today, I wanted to look at how pass defenses have fared through Week Ten, considering the Steelers’ defense is set to face Baltimore’s top-ranked passing offense in several regards. I’ll also look at success rates by down, game halves, and weekly views. Let’s jump right in.
First, let’s look at early down success rates league-wide (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
- First Down Passing Success = A pass that gains less than 40 percent of the needed yardage.
- Second Down Passing Success = A pass that gains less than 50 percent of the needed yardage.
Here, we see that the Steelers’ defense has been below average on first down (46.4, 16th). This is obviously the most frequent down, and teams are passing more often on the early down in today’s NFL as well. While that’s discouraging, they are among the better units on second down (57.8, fifth). So, they’ve tightened up and forced tougher situations on late downs.
Speaking of which, here are late downs, where third and fourth downs that do not pick up a first down are considered a success:
Back to a below-average mark, at a 66.3 success rate that ranks 17th. Unfortunate to see after such a strong second down rate. So, we see where Pittsburgh needs to hopefully be better on a down basis on Baltimore’s potent offense.
We also see where the Ravens’ 32nd-ranked pass-yardage defense has struggled most: late downs, compared to near average around the NFL on early downs. Hopefully, that reoccurs, allowing the Steelers’ offense to sustain drives and ideally limit the number of opportunities star QB Lamar Jackson has the ball in his hands.
Next, total success rates, now that we’ve seen the rates by down:
Pittsburgh moves up to a 55.4 total success rate, an 11th rank in totality, encouragingly. That’s largely due to second down success, while other downs left more to be desired, and must be better this week to stay atop the AFC North in this important Ravens matchup.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 28th with a 49.4 rate, six percentage points lower than Pittsburgh. Not only have the Ravens allowed quality of success to opposing offenses, but even more quality as a 32nd-ranked defense in several stats. Knock on wood continues, and we see Wilson cook.
I was also curious to see how defenses have performed by half:
Another extreme for the Steelers’ defense. Slower starts than desired have been well-documented and include the Steelers’ 48.0 first-half success rate, landing all the way down at a lowly 28th rank. That is simply unacceptable, especially from a strong unit overall, and facing Baltimore their next challenge.
Thankfully, Pittsburgh is much stronger in the second half, which is clearly the preference if forced to choose. Their 61.8 second-half success rate ranks impressively at second, clamping down late in games. That is very encouraging, but they face their toughest test to date in Jackson and company.
We also get context to Baltimore’s defense’s pain. They haven’t been able to stop anyone in the second half overall, with a 46.3 success rate that ranks 31st. Considering how well Wilson and the Pittsburgh passing game have fared in the clutch, that could bode well for another game-winning pass TD like we enjoyed last game. Fingers crossed.
To wrap up, let’s look at a weekly breakdown for added context:
Things have been above the 53.6 league average (red line) more often than not, particularly of late, encouragingly. Pittsburgh has been above the line in five games: Weeks Two and Three, then the last three games after a lull. The season opener was barely below average, while their worst marks came in a three-game stretch, Weeks Four through Six, including their only two losses of the year.
Regressing simply can’t happen in hopes of victory. That is easier said than done in this insane challenge, but it is great to see Pittsburgh’s last three games of success, which have been on a steady climb, including a season-best 64.9 success rate against arguably the toughest offense they’ve faced all year.
The latter is true once again for the second-straight game, and it will be paramount for Pittsburgh’s past defense to have a similar day, if not better, for things to go according to their plans. Here’s to hoping for just that this Sunday, which would hopefully help them hang on to their AFC North crown.
To close, here are Pittsburgh’s ranks:
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
