The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has shown promise in 2024, now 6-2 and coming out of their bye week. Today, I wanted to provide some data context of personnel usage, and expected points added (EPA) to gauge success.
In totality, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 13th in offensive EPA (0.03). 0.12 EPA on drop backs is their better mark which also ranks 13th, compared to a -0.07 rush EPA (15th).
Now let’s dive into personnel groupings. The majority of the league plays in 11 (1 RB, 1 TE) and 12 (1 RB, 2 TE’s) the most, which is the case for the Steelers as well. I will also include some personnel groupings we’ve seen more of under OC Arthur Smith.
Let’s start with 11 personnel, looking at usage and success rates in that situation:
The first thing that jumps out is Pittsburgh using 11 personnel well below the league mean. Their 47.6-percent usage rate ranks 27th in the NFL, much lower that their 71.8-percent number in 2023 that ranked sixth-most. A substantial difference.
The Steelers’ offense is slightly above a wash with a 0.02 11 personnel EPA, tying for 16th compared to 24th last season. While success could stand to improve, seeing more quality over quantity is encouraging.
More specifically, Pittsburgh’s 0.14 pass EPA is an impressive 10th this season. However, they have really struggled running out of 11 personnel, with a poor 30th-ranked -0.18 rush EPA. Considering the frequency of this personnel grouping, this should be a big goal for Pittsburgh’s offense to improve.
We also see the Washington Commanders, Pittsburgh’s next opponent, have the NFL’s best 11 personnel EPA of 0.22. While they also run it below league average (T-22nd), it’s more than the Steelers, and have been particularly strong on passes (0.31, first) compared to a 0.04 rush EPA (T-fifth). This will present a challenge that Pittsburgh’s defense is hopefully ready for in Week 10.
It’s also interesting to see how the rest of the Steelers remaining schedule stacks up. Baltimore runs 11 personnel the least in the NFL at a 28.9-percent rate, over 5-percent less than any other team, but have been successful (0.14 EPA, T-third).
Here’s the rest of Pittsburgh’s opponents: Cleveland (usage rate – 6th, EPA – 28th), Cincinnati (usage rate – 16th, EPA – T-third), Philadelphia (usage rate – 21st, EPA – T-eighth), and Kansas City (usage rate – 28th, EPA – T-third). That’s 5-of-6 remaining teams that are Top 10 in 11 personnel EPA.
Next up is 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs):
Here we see Pittsburgh is one of several teams above the mean in 12 personnel. Their 25.6-percent usage rate ranks 11th, and have a strong 0.18 EPA through Week 8 that ranks sixth. The Steelers higher usage is no surprise as one of Smith’s calling cards, and makes their success here encouraging.
In comparison, Pittsburgh ran 12 personnel 18-percent of the time in 2023 (19th), and had a -0.12 EPA (24th). So, much better in this alignment overall as well, thankfully. 12 personnel pass EPA is stronger again at 0.37 (seventh), with a -0.03 rush EPA (13th). This puts Pittsburgh among several competitive teams on the ideal corner of the visual, including many on their remaining schedule.
Looking at the schedule, 5-of-6 teams Pittsburgh’s set to face have high usage rates and EPA marks. Washington (usage rate – 12th, EPA – 14th), Baltimore (usage rate – fourth, EPA – first), Cincinnati (usage rate – seventh, EPA – T-eighth), Philadelphia (usage rate – second, EPA – T-eighth), and Kansas City (usage rate – fifth, EPA – T-15th).
It’s also interesting to see where Atlanta lands on the two visuals so far, becoming the heaviest 11 personnel team in the NFL at a whopping 90.9 (second-most is 84.8) after moving on from Smith, and barely using 12 along with abysmal results. A stamp of new OC Zac Robinson, coming over from the 11-personnel heavy Los Angeles Rams, who have the second-highest 11 personnel only behind the Falcons.
The stamp Smith put on his former, and current Steelers teams have been night and day different from 2023 to 2024.
Speaking of his impact, loading the roster and using TEs heavily has been on full display, including 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs):
In fact, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has used 13 personnel the most of any NFL team in 2024. That rate comes in at 18-percent, with only the Chiefs (16.1), and Cardinals (15.3) in the ballpark.
So, the Pittsburgh and Kansas City Week 17 matchup will seemingly feature lots of heavy personnel. Washington has the only other above the mean usage at 5.6, fourth-most to date. The Commanders have the second-best 0.29 EPA in 13 personnel as well, along with KC ranking ninth (-0.07).
Pittsburgh lands close to the league mean in 13 personnel EPA at -0.22, which ranks 14th. Their rush EPA (-0.07) is thankfully the better number given the situation and ranks seventh through Week Eight, compared to a -0.49 pass EPA (16th).
Not bad, but it would be good to see that improve with how often they have run it. For added context, several teams have yet to use the formation, and all but four teams are around four-percent or below.
Here’s Pittsburgh’s opponents yet to be mentioned: Baltimore (usage rate – 21st, EPA – 17th), Cleveland (usage rate – 16th, EPA – 12th), Cincinnati (N/A), Philadelphia (usage rate – 14th, EPA – sixth). Not a big element for any of these offenses, with the Eagles boasting the best quality and a potential Week 15 alignment challenge for Pittsburgh.
Lastly, I wanted to see how often Pittsburgh, and the NFL, have used multiple backs. Here are the 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TEs) results:
Many NFL teams aren’t using 21 personnel at all, and the majority that are land below 10-percent, including Pittsburgh. Their 3.3-percent usage rate ties for 14th, a quality over quantity affair in 2024 so far with a 0.15 21 personnel EPA that ties for fourth-best. This includes a 0.33 pass EPA that ties for sixth, but a -0.3 rush EPA that ranks 19th. That’s third-worst among teams that have ran 21 personnel, unfortunately.
Without a “true FB” on Pittsburgh’s roster, this is unsurprising in my opinion, but hopefully trend in the right direction in 21 personnel rushing. This could positively impact other things the Steeler offense prioritizes, such as play-action, and would likely continue to aid the offense opening up more.
Seeing the teams with high 21 personnel are largely unsurprising and utilize FBs. San Francisco (Kyle Juszczyk) and Miami (Alec Ingold) top the usage rate comfortably around 31-percent, with the third-most dipping all the way to 19.4 (Saints).
Baltimore is the only upcoming Pittsburgh opponent with an above-average usage rate (16.8). Patrick Ricard is a load, listed at over 300 pounds, and has even more snaps at inline TE and contributes to their high quality and quantity in 12 personnel.
Washington lands above the mean yet again with an impressive 0.74 21 personnel EPA that is currently leads the NFL. They don’t use it as often (6.1, ninth), and are similar to Pittsburgh in that they don’t have a “true FB”. Rookie Ben Sinnott has played more inline TE and wide alignments, but has aligned in the backfield 21 times as well.
And the other offenses Pittsburgh will face: Cleveland (N/A), Cincinnati (N/A), Philadelphia (usage rate – 18th, EPA – 11th). Bigger factor than 13 personnel for most NFL teams, but not this group overall.
So, Pittsburgh’s defense with have their hands full with several quality teams post-bye, that present a variety of challenges formationally. Washington is cooking on offense with the best 0.22 overall offensive EPA, ranking first in 11 and 21 personnel, second in 13 personnel, and are also above average in 12 personnel.
Baltimore is versatile, running 12 and 21 personnel more than most with success, particularly their top rank in the former. Cleveland is primarily an 11 personnel team, but have really struggled (28th in EPA), compared to more average marks otherwise. The final AFC North Bengals are more versatile, with above average EPA in their main alignments, particularly tying for third in 11 personnel.
Philadelphia uses 12 personnel second-most in the league, and have above average EPA across several formations except for 21 personnel. The reigning two-time Super Bowl Champion Chiefs mix it up, fairing best in 11 personnel (T-third), and above average EPA marks in 12 and 13 personnel with multiple TEs.
The Steelers offense fared well overall across the study. Here’s a rankings table breaking down all of the data on Pittsburgh’s offense to close (NOTE: Important to recall 13 and 21 personnel hasn’t been used by all teams, so the colors add context to those ranks):
Being largely above-average is so refreshing. Their best balance of quality and quantity has come in 12 personnel so far in 2024. TEs Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington lead the position for Pittsburgh in total snaps, with both rounding out their game with Freiermuth adding better blocking to his receiving prowess of late, and Washington getting more involved as a receiver to compliment his strong blocking.
Top 10 ranks: 13 usage rate, 21 total EPA, 21 pass EPA, 12 total EPA, 12 pass EPA, 13 run EPA, and 11 pass EPA.
Worst ranks: 11 usage rate, 11 run EPA, 21 run EPA.
Great to see versatile formation usage and success overall under Arthur Smith, compared to a Pittsburgh offense that had been stagnant for several seasons. Also, only a few poor marks. While not using 11 personnel nearly as often in 2024, a 30th ranked run EPA should be highest on the room for improvement radar for the Steelers offense.
