The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) are looking to right the ship following a two-game losing streak against the Las Vegas Raiders (2-3), who are coming off a loss of their own. Let’s dive right into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Las Vegas is making a QB change after starting Gardner Minshew in the first five games of 2024. He’s completed 99-of-140 attempts (70.7 completion rate, seventh) for 1,014 yards, 7.2 YPA, and 4 TDs/5 INTs. The latter is likely the reason for the change, with two of those interceptions coming last week.
QB Aidan O’Connell will start, with some experience in ten games as a rookie last season. He’s played in two games in 2024, including Week 5, following Minshew’s two picks. Wasn’t a savior on 20 attempts, with a lowly 50-percent completion rate, 94 yards (5.5 YPA), with no TDs and an interception of his own in their 34-18 loss.
Pittsburgh’s defense is above average in creating turnovers, including three last game. This recent !LINK 2024 TOX Vs. ATOX Through Week 5 article, a deep dive on turnovers and explosive plays shows a lack of splash turnover yardage/scoring compared to other defenses. Calling my shot, an interception of 20-plus yards, hopefully a pick-six.
Another thing that jumps out in the matchup is the connection in the passing game. Let’s look at adjusted completion rate (ADJ= aimed passes thrown on target: completions + drops / aimed) and drop rates:
Telling numbers. While the sample size is small for O’Connell, his accuracy has been poor despite no drops, at a 63.3 ADJ that’s third-worst among 38 qualifying QBs (min. 30 dropbacks). Recalling ADJ removes noise, such as throwaways. Advantage Pittsburgh if this reoccurs. Comparatively, Minshew was above the mean in both, far more accurate with some receiver drops to boot.
Pittsburgh QB Justin Fields and the pass game are coming off a down performance. Included in that are drops, with multiple in the last three games. 7.1 drop rate that ranks 26th, and looking for the receiving corps to step it up. Fields’ 79.8 ADJ (fifth) is far stronger than his 67.6 overall completion rate (15th) for added context.
Also, the Steelers were 0/6 on explosive air yard passes last game, which I visualized in my Week Five Steelers passing charts. Hopefully, that will improve greatly.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Las Vegas rosters one of the best in the NFL, Davante Adams. He’s requested a trade though, along with not playing since Week Three or practicing (out-hamstring).
Jakobi Myers is also questionable (ankle), and would be another big void for them. He leads their WRs in targets (37), particularly as the season has worn on, followed by Tre Tucker (24). Myers has 25 catches (67.6 catch rate), 273 yards, 10.9 YPR, and a TD. Tucker’s posted 18 catches (75.0 catch rate), 190 yards, 10.6 YPR, also with a TD.
Pittsburgh’s WR1 George Pickens is actually outpaced in targets (34) by Myers (37). Pickens’ involvement has been quite the topic of speculation following Week Five, playing just 59 percent of the snaps. Our Alex Kozora examined George Pickens’ snaps, concluding personnel usage being the primary factor. Can’t wait to see what this looks like in Week Six.
On the season, Pickens now has 23 catches, 67.6 completion rate, 310 yards, 13.5 YPR, and no TDs. None of this is awe-inspiring in terms of rankings.
I was curious to see how Pickens’ percent of team’s air yards (TAY) and average YAC above expectation (AYAE) have fared across in 2024:
This proved to be telling for the matchup. First, Pickens accounts for a high 45.8 percent TAY this year, ranking fifth (83 qualifiers, min. 15 targets). He led the NFL in the season opener (75.2, first). Since Week Three: 44.0, 63.9 (third), and a season-low 24.7. Ups-and-downs, particularly last week, as expected. Against a lesser Raiders coverage unit than Pittsburgh’s last opponent, I’m optimistic for a big day for Pickens.
All four qualifying WRs are below average in AYAE. Pickens bottoms the outlook (-0.33), ranking 64th/83. Las Vegas comes in at 50th (Adams), 58th (Tucker), and 63rd Myers. Pickens had his best 6.3 YAC last game (more, please), compared to 3.0 or below previously.
1.8 for Myers in Week Five and 2.0 for Tucker comparatively. Pittsburgh’s defense played zone frequently last week, with lots of YAC to secondary receivers, so what this looks like will be very interesting, sans Adams.
RUNNING BACKS – Pittsburgh is coming off their worst 92 team rushing yardage game, the only sub-100 outing in 2024. RB Najee Harris’ 42 yards (3.0 YPA) look rough on the surface but was strong in yards after contact and successful runs. He was the only typical face in the room, with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson both out with injuries. Each has been lightning to Harris’ thunder. Patterson remains out (ankle), and thankfully, Warren (questionable knee) could play, which would be huge.
Harris leads the outlook with 82 attempts this year (T-sixth league-wide) for 270 yards (19th). Raiders RB Zamir White paces them in attempts (49) and yards (153), but an even lower 3.1 YPA, and is questionable (groin). Alexander Mattison has been part of their committee: 32 attempts, 125 yards, and 3.9 YPA. His quality has clearly been better than White’s.
Here are RBs average rush yards (ARY) and rushing TDs in 2024:
Mattison is the only qualifier that’s made a house call, with two red zone TDs in five games. He also has receiving ability, including an explosive 31-yard TD in the opener. All the outlook RBs have below average ARY: Mattison 3.9, Harris 3.3, White 3.1. I could see Mattison being a factor, and hopefully, the Steelers’ defense that ties for third in ARY (3.7) can limit him.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Of course the position is the head of the snake in the run game, and to offenses overall. Pittsburgh was below the line last week in totality and hopefully stepped up for a more dominant overall performance.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
Both teams have dealt with injuries, with 16 players playing at least 30 snaps. Pittsburgh clearly has better RBLK grades, with more even PBLK in the matchup.
Here’s their expected starting unit:
LT Kolton Miller: 63.5 RBLK (48th/89), 72.9 PBLK (29th).
LG Jackson Powers-Johnson (questionable-knee): 56.4 RBLK (61st/83), 60.4 PBLK (50th).
C Andre James: 46.6 RBLK (39th/40), 63.7 PBLK (20th).
RG Dylan Parham: 66.2 RBLK (33rd/83), 79.3 PBLK (8th).
RT Thayer Munford Jr. (questionable-knee): 38.0 RBLK (89th/89), 69.4 PBLK (39th).
There is more context to Las Vegas’ run-blocking issues, particularly Munford Jr. at dead-last among tackles. He draws the tough matchup of star Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt, which bodes well in hopes of continuing to stifle their struggling run game.
The second-worst RBLK for the Raiders is rookie Powers-Johnson. Familiar name, scouted by Pittsburgh at C, playing LG for the Raiders. Below average PBLK, too, so DL Cam Heyward will likely teach the youngster a few things. Munford and Powers-Johnson are questionable but seem likely to play.
Their best ranks are interior PBLK from Parham (8th) and James (20th). Miller has a decent 72.9 PBLK but allowed the most sacks league-wide (six), two more than any other offensive lineman. There are a slew of injuries at EDGE that are opposite Watt, though: Alex Highsmith (out-groin), Nick Herbig (out-hamstring), and DeMarvin Leal (out-neck). Unfortunately, given the would-be matchup advantage, I’m hoping Jeremiah Moon and elevation(s) can step up.
Here are Pittsburgh’s starters:
LT Dan Moore Jr.: 69.1 RBLK (32nd/89), 75.2 PBLK (24th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 83.1 RBLK (6th/83), 43.4 PBLK (70th).
C Zach Frazier: 83.1 RBLK (5th/40), 64.5 PBLK (19th).
RG Mason McCormick: 62.2 RBLK (48th/83), 66.9 PBLK (34th).
RT Broderick Jones: 52.5 RBLK (75th/89), 50.5 PBLK (59th).
Nice RBLK overall, particularly Frazier (fifth among centers) in a nice start to his rookie year and Seumalo (sixth) in his 2024 debut last game. Moore’s playing well, and we are hoping McCormick can trend upward in his second start, replacing the top-graded run-blocking guard in the NFL in James Daniels (out for the season).
Frazier, Moore, and McCormick have posted respectable PBLK, while Jones and Seumalo not so much. Expecting much better from Seumalo, in particular, his second game back.
Jones has struggled overall, with low-50 grades in both, particularly a 75th-ranked RBLK. The circumstance is daunting against Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby, who’s primarily played on Jones’ side but has moved around a bit. Jones better be up for that tall task.
Hopefully, it’s a great day for Pittsburgh’s run game, with the line having a nice collective day against quality pass rushers as well.
DEFENSES – Here is one of my favorite stats, EPA for pass and run defenses through Week Five:
This illustrates the run, as mentioned above, defense issues for the Raiders, ranking 28th. Pittsburgh is on the other end of the spectrum at third-best and better dominate against LV, who’s struggled to run the ball. Passing EPA is much more even, with Raiders at 20th, and downtrended for Pittsburgh from 13th to 18th last week. 352 passing yards and two touchdowns were the Steelers’ worsts of 2024 and dropped them to a below-average unit through Week Five.
Knock on wood, Pittsburgh’s offense can perform more consistently, particularly by putting up points early and playing well into their run-first identity (and my heart rate). Points by quarter for context: first-2.6, second-3.8, third-5.2, fourth-6.8.
A primary defensive issue that needs resolving is third down conversion rates. with Pittsburgh allowing 9/15 last week (60 percent) and 7/9 in the second half (77.8). The latter was second-worst in the NFL in Week Five. This being an outlier, along Raiders injuries and lesser QB play, this should be much better.
TIGHT ENDS – The flipside to this hope is a dynamic threat in rookie Brock Bowers. He leads the position in targets (36), along with receptions and receiving yards:
28 receptions and 313 yards, to be exact. It makes sense with Adams out, but it’s still an impressive challenge. Bowers is also top ten in separation (4.2, fifth), 77.8 catch rate (T-sixth), a receiving TD (T-sixth), percent of teams air yards (17.6, seventh), and 5.8 YAC (seventh) out of 23 qualifiers (min. 15 targets). Without other primary weapons, hopefully, Pittsburgh’s defense will give him the attention he deserves successfully.
Here’s Freiermuth’s marks for comparison: 87.0 catch rate (second), two TDs (T-fourth), 20 catches (T-seventh), 180 yards (10th), 4.5 YAC (14th), 23 targets (T-14th), 3.2 separation (17th), and 12.3-percent team air yards (15th).
Freiermuth has two better marks, starting with a catch rate and an appreciated calling card. The other is a nice change from last year: two TDs. That was his total for the entire 2023 season, including the playoff game. Hoping for another, in a bout he’s very involved in and goes Pittsburgh’s way on Sunday.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Raiders
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
