As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 8 game against the New York Giants.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Giants’ Man Coverage Is Weakness Just Like Jets’ Game
Similar to the New York Jets, the Giants’ secondary is really hurting. No Adoree’ Jackson. Almost certainly no Cordale Flatt. And possibly no Tre Hawkins. Hundreds of defensive snaps New York will need to replace in this one.
The Giants are a man-heavy team and if they keep that personality, they could struggle the way the Jets did. Pittsburgh could keep running picks and rubs and WR George Pickens could dominate his way to another 100-yard performance. Russell Wilson smartly knows to get the ball to him early and often.
2. One-Dimensional Giants’ Offense Falls Flat
New York have been a poor rushing team this season. And they’ve hardly shown any interest in even trying, putting everything on Daniel Jones’ plate as a passer and frankly, as a runner. He’s a tough guy but man, the world is on his shoulders and he’s in over his head.
Pittsburgh is at their best when they make the opposition one-dimensional and force the QB to win. Sometimes the uber-talented quarterbacks can overcome that but Jones probably isn’t that guy. Especially with a beat-up offensive line missing their stud left tackle and possibly their starting right tackle. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith could have a big day if the Giants are stuck in third-and-forever.
3. Pittsburgh’s Special Teams Stay Special
The Giants have an uphill climb as it is. And if they lose the special teams battle, they’ll have an even slimmer margin of victory. Danny Smith’s unit is on fire right now, blocking a kick/punt in three-straight games. The coverage teams have been excellent, Corliss Waitman has punted well, and Chris Boswell remains on pace to set an NFL record for made field goals in a season. New York hasn’t been as successful and is on a backup punter due to injury.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. NT Dexter Lawrence Moves Russell Wilson Off His Spot
One guy to worry about is Giants NT Dexter Lawrence. He can dominate up the middle to stifle the running game and collapse the pocket against Steelers’ fourth-string center Ryan McCollum in the pass game. Credit to McCollum for hanging tough in his first Steelers’ start last week but Lawrence is an elite-level player having a historical season.
Not only is his collapsing the pocket important but Russell Wilson has still shown to be skittish dealing with phantom pressure much less an actual rush. And if he bails, a guy like Brian Burns could make impact plays out on the edges. That’s a concern against a Giants’ pass rush that enters Week 8 leading the NFL with 31 sacks.
2. Daniel Jones Shows Road Ability Again
Like most things, life is better outside of New Jersey. When Jones is away from the home crowd, he turns into a serviceable NFL quarterback with some of the wildest home/road splits you’ll see, significantly better on the road. And the Giants are 2-1 in another team’s stadium this season.
The rhyme or reason is hard to drill down, maybe there’s just less pressure and scrutiny from the crowd, but Jones could look better than expected relative to his poor season stats.
3. 50/50 Balls Aren’t As Successful
There’s no doubt Pittsburgh’s offense moved the ball primarily because of the chunk plays through the pass game, guys like Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth making impressive contested catches. Will that happen again? Maybe. They have the talent to do it, Pickens arguably the best contested catcher in the game. But it’s hard to bank on. And Wilson still has to show the passing game can be crisper and fluid. If it still struggles there, Wilson’s second outing might not be as impressive.
Prediction
Steelers: 20
Giants: 17
Season Prediction Record
3-4
