The 3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers are prepping for a prime-time matchup at home against the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys. Let’s dive right into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Cowboys Dak Prescott is one of seven QBs with 1,000 yards passing through four games, at 1,072 (fifth-most). He also has a +4 TD/INT ratio with six touchdowns (sixth) and two interceptions. 95 completions (T-fourth) on 149 attempts (fourth) for a 63.8 completion rate (30th) though, so some connection issues no doubt.
Russell Wilson did return to practice in a limited capacity for the Steelers, but a questionable game status as Justin Fields still seemingly has a firm grip on the reigns.
Fields has 829 passing yards to date (18th), three TDs (T-24th), one INT (T-18th), 77 completions (19th) on 109 attempts (19th), and a 70.6 completion rate. The latter is eighth-best out of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks in the visual below (min. 38 attempts).
An interesting stat for the matchup comes from NextGenStats: aggressiveness (AGG). This measures tight window throws, where the defender is within a yard at the completion/incompletion. I wanted to pair that with air yards to the sticks (AYTS), which is very telling in my opinion.
Prescott has thrown into tight windows more than any other qualifying quarterback (27.5 AGG). That number is nearly three percentage points higher than any other QB. This could mean that Pittsburgh’s defense will have opportunities to make plays on the ball. Personally hoping for interception(s), with none the last two weeks, after having two in each of the first two games of 2024.
Another difference in the matchup is AYTS, where Prescott has an above-average rank (11th). His -1.1 number is much closer to the sticks than Fields, averaging over three yards short of the sticks (-3.3), third-least in the NFL this season. Pittsburgh has protected him in terms of “easy” throws for the most part, playing to their don’t turn it over philosophy.
Fields’ 11.9 AGG is 12th least, substantially different than Prescott, and will hopefully pan out this way on Sunday night. That could lead to more advantageous situations for Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball.
WIDE RECEIVERS – On the receiving side of things, it’s largely CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys. 32 targets through four games rank 14th among WRs, for 316 yards (eighth) and two TDs (T-13th). 20 catches also tie for 13th, but a 62.5 catch rate lands low among his peers, tied for 55th out of 93 WRs with a minimum of ten targets.
This made me curious to learn about how defenses have played him, and the position. Here is the average cushion (CUSH = yards between receiver and nearest defender at the snap) and separation (SEP = yards between receiver and nearest defender at the catch/incompletion):
Here we see that teams have plastered Lamb at the snap, with the second-least 3.8 CUSH this season. This has also resulted in a low 2.1 SEP, the least of the matchup that ranks 87th (93 qualifiers).
Very important context to the earlier Prescott numbers, and poorer than expected connection with Lamb in 2024 so far. Pittsburgh CB Joey Porter Jr. will draw that coverage task primarily, and hopefully, the team will give these stars the attention they deserve, with similar success on them after a rough game last week.
The visual also shows that every WR in the matchup has below-average SEP. Cowboys Jalen Tolbert tops this list, with a 2.6 SEP (68th) on 5.5 CUSH (74th). Tied for second on the team in targets (19), for 160 yards and a TD. Likely prepping for an expanded role with WR2 Brandin Cooks out for the game (knee). That’s a big loss for them and hopefully aids Pittsburgh’s defensive plan.
Steeler Calvin Austin now has ten targets this season, with seven catches for 125 yards and a touchdown. Leads the outlook in yards per reception at 17.9, and hoping for his big play ability to surface on Sunday night. Defenses have given him the most CUSH of players we’re focused on, getting 7.2 yards at the snap (16th-most). One reason is a respect for his legit speed, and will be interesting to see his involvement and Dallas’ coverage plans.
George Pickens has 29 targets (T-18th), 20 catches (13th), 69.0 catch rate (32nd), and 284 yards (12th) in four games. He’s done well overall as the main man this year, ranking second in percent of teams air yards (54.6), one of only three WRs above 50 percent. As one of the best contested catch guys in the NFL, 79th/93 in SEP (2.3) expectedly doesn’t top his stat line. The biggest hope is finally getting his first TD of 2024.
TIGHT ENDS – The matchup features two important receiving threats for their respective teams. Leading the matchup at the position in targets is Cowboy Jake Ferguson with 23 (third). That is second on the team, which is also true for Steeler Pat Freiermuth at 20, tied for eighth in the NFL. Whichever defense can limit the position more could play a big factor in who comes out on top.
Let’s look at CUSH and SEP for this position as well:
Eerily similar SEP numbers for the two TEs, around 3.4 for both. Freiermuth has a slight edge that ranks just above Ferguson at 19th. This has also led to very similar receiving yards: Ferguson 159 (sixth), Freiermuth 156 (eighth). The big difference has been the CUSH they’ve seen, with Ferguson crowded at the line more (4.9, third-least) than Freiermuth (7.4, fourth-most).
Freiermuth is below the mean each, and being below the trendline on the visual emphasizes that with more CUSH should come more SEP. Here’s to hoping Fields is able to get him the ball more in space, which would improve not only SEP but maximize his tough YAC ability that he showcased on his first TD of 2024 last week.
RUNNING BACKS – Pittsburgh is currently tenth in rushing yards (514) through Week Four, while Dallas is dead-last in the NFL (301). They are also 31st in attempts, compared to third-most for the Steelers, another stat that hopefully reoccurs. This would mean the Cowboys offense being more one-dimensional and Pittsburgh having balance, which seemingly bodes well on paper.
For Dallas, Rico Dowdle leads the way in attempts (34), with 134 yards, for 3.9 YPA. Ezekiel Elliott reunited with the Cowboys following a 2023 stint with the Patriots and has 24 attempts for 81 yards (3.4 YPA). Second-year man Deuce Vaughn is also in the fold, with seven attempts, 20 yards, for just 2.9 YPA this season.
Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris has more attempts (68) than the Cowboys entire RB room, eight-most in the NFL, and 228 yards (17th). That equates to 3.4 YPA, falling all the way to 41st out of RBs with at least 20 carries (53 qualifiers). Last week was particularly painful, with 13 attempts and 19 yards, for an abysmal 1.5 YPA. In his other three games, that number sits at 3.8, so hopefully, Week Four’s loss was an outlier.
A big day is needed, required to lean on Harris with RBs Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson both ruled out (knee, ankle).
Here are running backs eight men in the box rates (8MIB) and average time to the line of scrimmage (TLOS):
For starters, we see Harris has faced the least 8MIB rate in the matchup at a below-average 16.2-percent (39th). This was quite the topic following a poor outing last game, stating Indianapolis packed the box. That rate was 23.1, 17th most of Week Four, with 15 qualifiers facing it at over 30 percent. So, higher than Harris’ average on the year, but not to the extent his comments suggest.
Despite being shut down, Pittsburgh is coming off their strongest rushing success rate through Week 4. This largely came from Patterson, re-emphasizing the injury losses in the room. Aaron Shampklin got his first action of the season last game, and will be interesting who else may factor in this week.
TLOS is above league average for all primary rushers in the matchup. Harris lands just above the mean at 2.78 (25th), with the Cowboys coming in a bit faster: Dowdle (ninth) and Elliott (14th). Pittsburgh’s defense will hopefully be dominant at the snap, hopefully creating negative plays and yardage against the run.
OFFENSIVE LINES – The Cowboys’ OL has struggled as run blockers, which makes sense given their low rushing yards in 2024, pointing to optimism for this.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
Here’s how they stack up and rank across the league by position (min. 50 snaps):
LT Tyler Guyton: 51.2 PBLK (68th/84), 53.1 RBLK (73rd).
LG Tyler Smith: 82.2 PBLK (4th/74), 68.1 RBLK (24th).
C Cooper Beebe: 74.5 PBLK (7th/39), 49.8 RBLK (37th).
RG Zach Martin: 81.3 PBLK (6th/74), 62.2 RBLK (36th).
RT Terence Steele: 53.9 PBLK (62nd/84), 78.3 RBLK (10th).
All three interior linemen rank top ten in pass block grade, so interior pressure may be a tall order for Pittsburgh’s d-line. Hopefully, they are up for that challenge, along with bouncing back against the run after a less-than-ideal performance against the Colts. Beebe appears to be the weak link, with the third worst 49.8 RBLK among centers. Calling Cam Heyward, and the group to feast in the run game.
Steele lands top ten in RBLK, but a much lower 62nd PBLK among tackles, and Pittsburgh EDGE T.J. Watt is likely licking his chops to potentially reach 100 career sacks after a quiet Week Four.
With usual running mate Alex Highsmith ruled out, Nick Herbig will take on an expanded role for the second time. His prior calling card had been quality over quantity as a fantastic rotational piece and definitely felt a drop-off in his performance with the increased workload last game. Seemingly advantageous matchup against Guyton that he can flip that script on, hopefully.
Lots of moving pieces on Pittsburgh’s OL this season. Here are the expected starters:
LT Dan Moore: 73.4 RBLK (21st/84), 71.2 PBLK (26th).
LG: Isaac Seumalo: N/A.
C Zach Frazier: 80.1 RBLK (6th/36). 65.2 PBLK (18).
RG Mason McCormick (95 snaps): 52.7 RBLK (63rd/74), 73.5 PBLK (22nd).
RT Broderick Jones: 57.1 RBLK (54th/84), 52.0 PBLK (67th).
The great news is that Seumalo is set to make his 2024 debut, missing the first four games of the season to injury (pec). His return is of course huge, and timely with the unfortunate season-ending Achilles injury to G James Daniels last week. Daniels was playing very well, grading out as PFF’s best run-blocking guard (92.9 RBLK). McCormick seems likely to slide in at RG, with Spencer Anderson an option as well.
Frazier and Moore have played well overall this season. Frazier’s 80.1 RBLK ranks sixth among all centers along with an 18th PBLK, and Moore has good balanced grades as well. Every other position has shifted in personnel and quality of performance, so hopefully they can continue to be the rocks of yet another lineup compared to the Cowboys’ healthy unit.
As good of a visual as you could hope for through the Steelers’ lenses, with their run-first identity on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks second-best against the run, while Dallas’ run D is dead last through Week Four. If the Steelers can’t play to their identity in this game, it will likely be them beating themselves.
Pittsburgh has also been the stronger pass defense, ranking 13th, while Dallas comes in at a well below-average 24th rank. Knock on wood lends to Fields continuing to open up and succeed as a passer this week.
A big part of the equation for the Cowboys’ defensive struggles is injuries. Along with a handful on IR, star EDGE Micah Parsons is ruled out (ankle). A few questionable players as well, namely starting CB Trevon Diggs another big loss if he can’t go. Never wish injuries on anyone, but hopefully, Pittsburgh can capitalize on this hand they’ve been dealt with victory.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury Reports: Steelers Cowboys
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