As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 5 contest against the Dallas Cowboys.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. The Interior O-Line Wins The POA
The Cowboys’ run defense has been weak for most of the season, though they tightened the screws in Week 4’s win over the New York Giants, holding them to essentially 1-yard per carry. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack is coming off their worst game of the year and will be without two of their three backs, Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson.
With Isaac Seumalo back, this line must win up front. The interior blocking of Seumalo-Frazier-McCormick has to be able to assert its well and get more of a push on its doubles than they did against the Colts. Taking care of Cowboys NT Mazi Smith, coming off his best game of his young career, is mission No. 1.
2. Defense Devises Smart Third Down Plan For Lamb
There’s no easy way to stop CeeDee Lamb. Frankly, it’d be foolish to expect it. But Pittsburgh must be aware of No. 88 every snap, especially on weighty downs and big-time moments. CB Joey Porter Jr. is likely to shadow most of the time but against guys of Lamb’s caliber, it’s not a single man’s job. Bracketing Lamb will be key, especially given his alignment can be anywhere on the field, opening up his route tree and making it harder to use CB leverage to take away most of the field (i.e. inside leverage against a widely aligned receiver).
Overall, Pittsburgh does a good job limiting the opposition’s star player. But Lamb is a different kind of task.
3. Play-action Brings Bite
Earlier this week, we discussed Pittsburgh’s poor play-action numbers. There’s a chance to change that against Dallas. Being at home and getting off a silent count allows cadence to be a factor and a chance for the Cowboys’ defense to play a little slower. But more to the point, Dallas is an aggressive bunch who likes to take chances and can be fooled by fakes and double-moves. This is the chance for Justin Fields, with a great ball-fake, to hit a big play downfield.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys ‘Teams Spoils The Night
Special teams could be the difference-maker in this one. And Dallas has a great trio. Aubrey is the league’s most powerful kicker who could hit from 60-yards even in Acrisure Stadium. Punter Bryan Anger is seventh in gross average at 51.5-yards while returner KaVontae Turpin already has a punt return this season, the only punt return score of the season.
Obviously, Pittsburgh brings strength with K Chris Boswell but Dallas has the stronger collective. That can’t be overlooked.
2. Hunter Luepke Becomes A Thorn In Defense’s Side
Beyond Lamb, the Cowboys lack bonafide weapons. But they have a speedy group of receivers while Luepke has increased his role in the offense, playing over half their snaps last week. He’s a pass protector, lead blocker, and getting involved in the passing game with five targets the last two games combined. He could pick up crucial third downs to keep drives alive.
3. Sim Pressure Is Too Much To Handle
The Cowboys’ defense is hurting but what they still can do is show pressure and threaten Pittsburgh’s line up the middle. In obvious passing situations, they’ll Mug the gaps and show an extreme blitz look. Sometimes they rush, sometimes they drop out. A rookie like center Zach Frazier and the team’s running backs will have to sort everything out and execute. RB Aaron Shampklin could have a key role if he assumes some third down duties like he did last week.
Prediction
Steelers: 27
Cowboys: 23
Season Prediction Record
2-2
