As we’ve been doing for many years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual player standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the New York Jets’ offense.
Alex’s Scheme Report
Jets’ Run Game
The running game hasn’t found its footing this year but maintains the same lead back. Breece Hall leads the group with 83 carries for 310 yards and two touchdowns but well under 4.0 yards per carry. His run-success rate falls in line at just 36.1-percent. Of backs with at least 50 carries this year, Hall is last, 38th of 38. While the sample size might still feel small, his success rate was only a bit better last year at 39.5 percent.
Hall’s backup is rookie Braelon Allen with 35 carries for 155 yards and a score. He’s been playing between 20-33 percent of the snaps this season. A powerful runner, he’s not been used as their goal-line back. Inside the 10, Hall leads the way with six carries while Allen has just one.
As a team, the Jets are managing just 3.9 yards per carry, 28th in the league. They’re also generating just 87.2 rushing yards per game, 30th in football, with just three rushing scores this season. Other positions don’t get involved carrying the ball. WR Garrett Wilson is the only receiver with a rush this year, a five-yard carry on 2nd and 12 from the Jets’ 24 earlier this year. Collectively, the Jets have just 13 rushes of 10-plus yards. That’s tied for 28th in football, making their run game stats unimpressive overall.
They don’t use a fullback but will put a tight end in the backfield. They’ll also use two-back sets, sometimes with a runner and receiver, and sometimes both backs, Hall and Allen on the field. They’ll run sweeps to the field off it.
Making a head coach and play-calling change with Todd Downing now taking over for Nathaniel Hackett, the Jets incorporated more motion during their Week 6 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Per Underdog Fantasy’s Josh Norris, the rate spiked in Downing’s first game.
You can see that in the run game with pre/on-snap motion that’s become popular leaguewide this year. Most often with their zone/split-zone action, a common concept.
They have been a heavy 12-personnel team in recent weeks, using it 11th-most in the league. But I wonder if that will hold up after acquiring Davante Adams. They have a strong top three at wide receiver and may lean more on 11 personnel, making it tough to project their plan with a play caller in his second game and first one with Adams. It was also interesting to see them use so much 2×2 against Minnesota under Hackett to more 3×1 formations under Downing.
Some other stats. They’re 23rd in points per game, averaging 18.8 and failing to score more than 24 in a single game. They’ve been held under 20 in three of their six. Situationally, they’re average, 13th on third down (41 percent) and 18th in the red zone (52.9 percent). They’ve only turned the ball over seven times this year, but their turnover differential is poor because the Jets’ defense isn’t making splash, New York sitting at minus-one (tied for 18th).
Jets’ Pass Game
Pittsburgh will see QB Aaron Rodgers, a future first ballot Hall of Famer. The numbers aren’t gaudy this year, though he shouldn’t be underestimated. On the year, he’s completing 61.8 percent of his passes, which if that holds, will be the second-worst rate of his career only ahead of his 60.7 percent in 2015. He’s thrown nine touchdowns to five interceptions, throwing for at least two scores in four of his six starts.
His adjusted net yards/passing attempt is only 5.24 this year, 24th out of 31 quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts. Justin Fields, by comparison, is about 5.9. Rodgers has been sacked at a high clip lately, 11 times over the last three weeks. Over that span, only the Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson has been dropped more.
Rodgers reunites with Davante Adams. While Adams is jumping on a moving train, his background with Rodgers will accelerate the learning curve, and I expect him to play plenty of snaps this weekend. Of returning Jets, Garrett Wilson has been the team’s top receiver. He has 41 receptions for 399 yards and three scores. His yards-per-reception is 9.7, a really low number, and more than a yard worse than last year despite far worse QB play. Gotta think that number will rise soon.
RB Breece Hall is tied for second on the team with 26 receptions. So is WR Allen Lazard, who is quietly having a really strong season. He’s averaging over 13 yards on 26 catches and is tied for the NFL lead with five touchdowns, including a Hail Mary last weekend to end the first half against Buffalo (the fourth Hail Mary TD of Rodgers’ career, an NFL record). The tight ends don’t get involved a ton with starter Ty Conklin having 19 catches for 191 yards and no scores this year.
As a team, the Jets have 20 completions of 20-plus yards, fourth-most in the NFL. Lazard is responsible for a team-high six of them.
Schematically, when they are 3×1, Rodgers likes hitting his X-backside in a 1v1 matchup.
They’re a heavy play-action team, especially on second down in Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings (prior to their coach/coordinator change). Will go max protect with two-man mirrored routes downfield.
One concept evident in both games is their All-Go Special. Four verts with the RB down the seam and No. 4 fast to the flats to try to hold someone underneath. Examples from Weeks 5 and 6.
Against blitz looks, Rodgers will look to get the ball out hot. Could bluff some blitzes and try to bait him into getting the ball out quick and underneath. Also, would note their backs are big and strong and successful in pass protection and defend interior blitzes by off-ball linebackers.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Jets week, Steelers fans!
With it comes not only another primetime Sunday Night Football matchup on the North Shore, but a matchup against future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, too.
He got a big boost in help this week after the New York Jets swung a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders to land star receiver Davante Adams, reuniting the dominant connection of Rodgers and Adams.
Rodgers is making his return from a torn Achilles suffered just four plays into the 2023 season. He’s a bit hobbled coming into this one, dealing with an ankle injury after being rolled up on two weeks ago in London against the Minnesota Vikings.
For the most part, Rodgers’ mobility hasn’t been limited and he still can move around and make plays. His arm remains elite, too. He rips throws and believes he can put the football wherever he wants. He plays with a supreme confidence and it’s hard to rattle him.
He should have even more confidence with Adams on the outside once again. Those two have quite the relationship and were always on the same page in Green Bay. Though they haven’t played together in three years, that relationship remains and should help make it an easier transition than normal with Adams coming to a new team. The scheme is similar too as offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was a coordinator in Green Bay, too.
While Adams will get a lot of attention, the Jets are loaded from a weapons standpoint.
Wide receiver Garrett Wilson has emerged as Rodgers’ top target and has had a tremendous year to date. He’s hauled in 41 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns, coming up large for Rodgers time and time again.
He’s a shifty route runner, one who is very good at getting clean releases. Wilson wins down the field and in short areas, too, and is really a tough receiver to cover. He’s a special player.
Allen Lazard is having a strong season, too, continuing to build on his connection with Rodgers dating back to Green Bay. He’s become that big slot for the Jets, one who makes plays above the rim and can stretch the field vertically up the seam.
Rodgers has great trust in Lazzard and looks his way often. That’s been the case even dating back to Green Bay.
At tight end, Tyler Conklin has really started to emerge as a weapon Rodgers trusts, especially over the middle of the field. Conklin has 19 receptions for 191 yards on the season and has shown a knack for finding that soft spot between the linebackers and the safeties in the middle of the field.
He’s unafraid to go there and makes plays even with contact coming his way. He’s been rather surehanded, too.
In the backfield, the Jets have a very solid 1-2 punch in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Hall was expected to be in Offensive Player of the Year discussions this season with Rodgers back healthy. He hasn’t had much success on the ground, though, which is concerning for the Jets.
Hall had his first 100-yard game of the season on Monday night against the Bills, so maybe a corner has been turned. He’s a great blend of speed and power and has good vision, which allows him to pick his way through defenses when lanes aren’t clear.
He’s also a terrific receiver out of the backfield and has shown the ability to stretch the field vertically and win in contested-catch situations.
Allen is more of the downhill hammer. He has good speed and explosiveness, but he’s more of the between-the-tackles bowling ball who can really wear down defenses. That said, he can erase angles from defenders just when it looks like he’ll be hemmed in.
The key for the Jets is the offensive line. On paper, it appears solid with some recognizable names. On the field, though, the group has struggled to protect Rodgers and hasn’t had a ton of success in the run game either.
Here’s how I expect the Jets to line up Sunday night left to right.
LT — Tyron Smith
LG — John Simpson
C — Joe Tippmann
RG — Alijah Vera-Tucker
RT — Morgan Moses
Having the bookend tackle pairing of Smith and Moses is solid at first glance. Smith is one of the best left tackles of his generation while Moses has been a dependable tackle throughout his career. But they’re on the downside of their careers and are having trouble staying healthy and playing at the level many expect of them.
Smith has allowed a team-high 16 pressures on the season and has been a bit of a mess.
Inside, the guard combination of Vera-Tucker and Simpson is solid. They provide physicality and play with an edge, which gives the Jets’ offensive line some snarl. Tippmann is one of the most underrated centers in football, period.
On special teams, the Jets are up and down.
Punter Thomas Morstead remains a good one. He’s averaging nearly 48 yards on 27 punts in his 16th season and has a long of 60 yards. Ten of his punts have been downed inside the 10-yard line.
Kicker Greg Zuerlein continues to have a big, strong leg, but accuracy is an issue. Zuerlein is 8-for-12 on the season and missed two kicks against the Bills in the Jets’ 23-20 loss. The Jets worked out three kickers earlier in the week but didn’t make a roster move.
In the return game, Xavier Gipson is a dynamic weapon for the Jets. He had a punt return for touchdown last season to win a game and has 8.5 yards per punt return this season. Gipson is also averaging nearly 27 yards on kickoff returns this season.
