Today I wanted to look and provide turnover and explosive play data (TOX), along with what I call Adjusted TOX (ATOX) through the 2024 season so far. The TOX stat takes turnovers and explosive plays for offenses and defenses. It creates a differential for each, which is very valuable historically to winning. Let’s start with this, and by the end of the article, I will define ATOX and present those results as well.
First, here are explosive plays for offenses and defenses through Week 5:
The Pittsburgh Steelers land in the top left quadrant, meaning their better mark has come on the defensive side of the ball. Sixteen explosive plays allowed is slightly above the mean of NFL teams this season, tying for 12th with four other teams. On offense, 15 explosive plays lands in the bottom third of the league (T-23rd), which is likely not a surprise.
Comparatively, Green Bay leads the NFL with 27 explosive plays on offense, while Atlanta has been the best at limiting them (10). The Chargers and Patriots tie for the least on offense with 9, and Jacksonville has allowed the most explosives with 26.
Next up, here are turnovers and takeaways:
This element of the game is something the Steelers pride themselves on, as one of their highest priorities on both sides of the ball. The visual illustrates the Steelers as one of only four teams above the mean in each. Four turnovers on offense ties for fourth-best with four other squads, and 8 defensive takeaways ties for sixth. Both are strong, but hoping takeaways take a leap moving forward.
The Bills and Chargers tie for the least turnovers (two), and the Packers have created a league leading 14 takeaways. Tying for the NFL’s worst in each stat are the Titans and Raiders, with the latter coincidentally Pittsburgh’s next opponent.
Now let’s see how the turnover and explosive play differentials shake out:
- Explosive Diff = Explosive plays (offense) – Explosive plays allowed (defense).
- Turnover Diff = Takeaways (defense) – Turnovers (offense).
As expected from the prior views, Pittsburgh’s turnover differential is the much better number at four, tying for fifth with the still undefeated Vikings. The Steelers minus-1 explosive play differential lands below average, one of five teams that tie for 17th.
For context, the best explosive differential are the 49ers (11), with Green Bay and Buffalo tying for the top plus-seven turnover differential. The divisional opponent Browns have the worst explosive play differential (-11), while Las Vegas and Tennessee bottom the turnover differentials (-7).
Now that we’ve broken down all the moving parts, here are the TOX differentials through Week 5 of the 2024 season:
- TOX Differential = Turnover + Explosive play differentials.
The Pittsburgh Steelers fare very well in the total stat, with a plus-3 number that ties for 10th with the Detroit Lions. Each team has three wins to date, though Pittsburgh is on a two-game losing streak including issues on both sides of the ball.
This is where ATOX can add additional context, so let me break the adjustments I make for explosive plays.
- Adjusted explosive plays = total explosive plays + double-explosive of 40 yards or more (multiplier of two) + triple-explosive of 60 yards or more (multiplier of three) + explosive touchdowns (multiplier of six).
The goal is to see who has gotten more (or less) value on their explosive plays, considering a 20-yard catch isn’t nearly as valuable as a 99-yard rushing touchdown, for example.
Here are adjusted explosive plays to date:
Pittsburgh lands in the same upper left side of the graph, moving further above the mean on defense, but sliding down the results on offense. In the initial view, the defense had 16 explosive plays allowed (T-12th), while their 30 adjusted explosive plays moves up to a tie for seventh.
Four double-explosive plays allowed (T-11th), no triple-explosives (T-first), and two explosive TDs allowed (T-sixth). No 60-plus explosives is great to see, which roughly half the NFL has been able to do, and ranking above average in all the data is encouraging.
Different story for the offense. Twenty-three adjusted explosive plays ranks a lowly 27th, compared to tying for 23rd in explosive plays. Neither is ideal, and must improve to aid putting up more points. Four double-explosives ranks well at 13th, but no triple explosives (T-18th) and just one explosive touchdown (T-25th), the 55 yarder from WR Calvin Austin in the Week Three win.
Specific context to what has occurred, Pittsburgh not able to get extreme explosive value on offense, but have defensively limited others in comparison to the rest of the NFL.
Next, a similar view for adjusted turnovers and takeaways:
- Adjusted turnovers/takeaways = total turnovers + interception or FR explosive return (multiplier of two) + double explosive (multiplier of three) + triple explosive (multiplier of four) + touchdown (multiplier of six).
Similar to adjusted explosive plays, but stronger multipliers considering they are less frequent.
Here are adjusted turnovers and takeaways:
Still a very good result for the Steelers offense, while the defense drops to a below the mean unit. To refresh, the defense’s 8 takeaways I broke down earlier tied for sixth, but their 13 adjusted takeaways ties for 13th. So, we’re not seeing the splash plays as much as expected or needed, compared to a team like Minnesota more than tripling Pittsburgh at 43, including multiple defensive touchdowns.
Just two of Pittsburgh’s 8 takeaways had explosive yardage, CB Donte Jackson’s 49-yard interception return in Week 1, and CB Cory Trice’s end zone interception getting touchback yardage. Also, two missed field goals and a fourth down fail go into the adjusted numbers as defensive takeaways for the Steelers.
Pittsburgh’s offense remains well above average with eight adjusted turnovers, tying for sixth, compared to the initial 4 turnovers tying for fifth. So, there thankfully wasn’t the drop off we see from the defense overall.
The lone exception was a painful one though, where QB Justin Fields ran backwards for a strip sack and loss of 20 yards. Also on the negative side were a missed field goal from K Chris Boswell, and three fourth down fails.
Now that we’ve viewed the results for offense and defense, let’s get to the adjusted turnover and explosive play differentials:
Again, while the defense still lands above average in the adjusted differentials, they landed better in the TOX view. Pittsburgh’s minus-7 adjusted explosive play differential ranks 21st in the NFL, and fare better at an above the mean plus-5 adjusted turnover differential that ties for ninth.
Comparatively, their TOX results were a below average minus-1 explosive play differential that ties for 17th, and a 4 turnover differential tying for fifth. So, a clear drop off in each when factoring in more context to explosive plays and turnovers, unfortunately.
To close, here are the adjusted TOX (ATOX) differentials in totality:
This really wraps a bow on it all. Pittsburgh’s ATOX differential (-2) is eerily similar to their earlier TOX differential (-3) that tied for 10th. This last visual shows a substantial drop in the ATOX ranks though (T-18th), and paints a fuller picture that the raw TOX stats. For context, Minnesota jumped from a plus-6 TOX all the way to a whopping 54 ATOX that comfortably leads the NFL.
It will be interesting to see if the Steelers can trend in the right direction the next few weeks, which would help in getting back in the win column. Here’s to hoping we see more explosive and turnover splash starting this Sunday against Las Vegas, who by the way rank 26th in ATOX. Knock on wood Pittsburgh can capitalize on that.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
